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Randwick Kensington Feb 6, 2019

 Feb 5 2019

Best value

Race 4 no.3 Final Award $19 each-way (rated $10)

Meeting info:

Rail: 3m

Recent history in 3m rail at this track-    

17/10/2018         Kens      3m          S5-6       Most winners on pace but tempo related early- Pretty fair this track- wider later on                                               

21/12/2018         Kens      3m          S5           Played fair re lanes but on pace here. Only one winner further back than second on settling                                          

Last Kensington meeting- 5/01/2019 Rail True Good 3- Lanes no issue but fairly on pace (most tempo though?). Only one winner further back 4th.                                      

Track prediction: Still in the early stages of this new Kensington track but on pace is normally an advantage.        

Wind: Gentle easterly. Slight head breeze into home straight hitting those on the inside. Shouldn’t have much impact.

Weather- odd shower but should be OK? Good track expected as this surface drains so well.
 

Race 1- 2YO Mdn (1000m)

Overview: Not enough data to price these up to be fair. Cardiff and Just Zerene have both had big raps on them but need to do it on the track still. Escaped, Sun Patch (fitness off one trial?), Gina Lola and Super Oasis (slow time) have all trialled solidly. Others have done enough at the trials too. Many angles where late betting will be key.

Advice: Tough race to kick off with a lot of unanswered questions. Late betting will give you a guide here after the yard etc.

Selections for now: 9-2-8-3-5

9.Just Zerene- Missed start G3 Qld debut and then led and absorbed far too much pressure when gallant second Canterbury. Other horse caught in speed duel that night, Deep Chill finished fifth and has since finished third in Canonbury since. 1200 back to 1000.

2.Cardiff- Started $2.50 fav Golden Gift where no match Tassort. Closed off well only trial this time in but was still keen there. Keen on debut too.

8.Gina Lola- Run off feet first trial run in quick time, led second trial and won in solid time. Comes from family multiple winners- Nom’d Blue Diamond.

3.Escaped- Up on speed two trials and finished off well latest to score in good time. Mum won an Edward Manifold over 1600m. Drawn inside.

5.Sun Patch- Got back but closed off well one trial in solid time under not a lot of pressure- Full bro to Witherspoon, ½ to stakes winner Manuel and galloper Taking Aim. Only 1 trial? Fitness?

Other runners:

1.Amore Amore- Just fair out two trials and tired late in this. Not for me.

4.Gogol- Not far away settling down two trials but pushed along late and tired. ½ bro to G1 winner Fat Al.

6.Badia-  Closed off nicely two trials, settled back first one and just off speed second. Trial times OK. May get backgate?

7.Come See- Full sister to Ljungberg- Showed speed but tired badly late in trials a concern.

10.Lucky One- Closed off OK two trials when settling off speed. Latest slower heat and slower last 600m than Escaped and Gogol on same day.

11.Paris- Beat all bar Hightail debut but hung out in straight. Race just fair figures- Sat o’side lead pushed along in trial.

12.Super Oasis- Jumped well, took sit in trial and closed off well under riding. Trial time 3L slower Gina Cola on same day and slower L600 too.

13.Bollywood- Blink 1st time- Loomed and knocked up fresh, just found one better second up after easing out of early speed duel. Drawn well.

14.Estrado-Jumped well in trial but missed jump race and made some late ground. Can settle closer but will wide draw allow that.

16.Chabrol- Missed start considerably and never ran on debut Cant.

 

Race 2- 3YO Mdn (1100m)

Overview: Quite a few questions to be answered here as well. I liked the trials of the well-bred Phoenix River and Trope. The latter is probably a bit more wound up for this with three trials v one for Phoenix River (although we’re getting a better price PR). Got Your Six has posted two solid trial wins and has shown good speed in doing so. There is a bit of tempo here all the same. Lagarde has a few chances but gets the blinkers on and will have admirers, while Flying Legend bumped into some smart horses in his first prep and looks well suited if he is ready off one trial?

Advice: Again market moves late here should paint the picture. A lot of yard watches key to this race. Flying Legend could be top pick if ready but I’m concerned he won’t be?

Selections for now: 5-4-9-10-1

5.Trope ($5)- Improved each of three trials. Big horse who posted good time winning latest heat with ears pricked and strong late. Goes back? Hits line.

4.Phoenix River ($7.50)- Liked the way closed off in solid trial time wise. 9 siblings to race all winners according to me. ½ to G2 winner First Command. Should be strong late.

9.Got Your Six ($7.50)- Two solid trial wins showing speed. Has a bit of company up front but looks to have ability.

10.Lagarde ($6.80)- Had chance LS. Blinkers on and racing well but finding one or two too good. FUP- First two gapped rest, 2nd up- Horse to win reeled off some super sectionals, 3rd up- 4 wide no cover Magic Millions Mdn, last start had chance in average figures race.

1.Flying Legend ($7)- 1 soft trial- Bumped into Adana/Roheryn, Napoleon Solo first prep! All good horses- Gate one, first run good track- Just query on fitness with one soft trial and stable that aren’t renowned for getting them rock hard fit fresh.

Other runners:

2.I Am A Country Boy ($248)- Trials ordinary.

3.King’s Order ($21)- Every chance in front LS on day hard to make ground. Have to be against.

6.Adagirl ($10.50)- Trialled well twice including latest which was 1L quicker Got Your Six on same day and 3L Q l600m. Trialled well prior to last prep though and then just battled?

7.Brunetta ($37)- Two trials- Closed off well latest but under more pressure than Adagirl and couldn’t get past that horse- Wait for imrp.

8.Commute ($74)- Overraced and too green in only trial.

11.Skillet ($21)- Could be slow out and just held ground on debut at $26. Wait for improvement.

 

Race 3- B76 1550m

Overview: She will get back but I’ve got to be with Bring The Magic to knock off Toryjoy here as the latter just does too much wrong and faces a little bit of pressure up front. Bring The Magic can have last say. Zourhea is the interesting runner. Her run was much better than it looked fresh and she just might be the improver here. Toryjoy has to be respected and is a terrific winning hope all the same.

Advice: Could back Bring The Magic to win at $3.50 providing there is evidence you can run on. Expecting Zourhea to drift and she could become a betting opportunity at $11+ too.

Selections: 5-7-2-1

5.Bring The Magic ($3.20)- Her overall time 1.2s quicker Witches (although much quicker early tempo always meant time was going to be quicker overall). First two gapped the rest. Mdn win prior produced 3 winners 2 2nds from 7 subs starters. Came from last track fav on pace. Even quicker late splits to Witches.

7.Zourhea ($10)- Run better than it looked first-up Sat city grade. Walked in front and she clocked Quickest late splits of race. Also, 2nd quickest l600 and l200 of day (naturally that’s off a slow tempo so had plenty of energy left). Won second up mile last prep and can sit closer. Whether classy enough just yet.

2.Toryjoy ($3.60)- Capable but does too much wrong as a short priced betting proposition. Overraces as has done last start. Speed inside as well. Won here three back. Prefers wet?

1.Final Zero ($9)- Pretty soft lead last week and was entitled to hang on. Hard to make ground that day at WF as a rule too. Beaten 2.7L Toryjoy two back.1550m? Beaten 0.8L 1500m and 2.9L.

Other runners:

3.Witches ($12)- Won third up although overall time 1.3 s slower Sure Knee race (8.5L slower to 600m though) which Bring The Magic comes through.1.2s slower overall Bring The Magic. Got it easy on speed there. Fourth up improving but needs to lift all the same.

4.Bella Success ($12)- Horse that gets back- Has a nice finish on day but hard to catch. Speed here at least but prefer her on wet ground as well. Track could be against.

6.Maddison Avenue ($47)- Beaten 5.5L by Bring The Magic last start. 2.5kg swing in the weights on that horse unlikely to be enough.

8.Echo Princess ($119)- Beaten 4.5L Bring The Magic last start. 2kg swing in the weights unlikely to be enough.

 

R4- 3YO Mdn 1400m

Overview: The gamble of the day comes up here for me in the shape of Final Award. I thought he was super off a slow tempo first-up and he blundered out of the gates too and settled back further than expected because of that. He showed he could take up a position at the trials and he looks to be looking for 1400m. The $19 each-way seems a really good gamble to find out if he can win this. Mr Dependable has won two speedy trials and he should go close on debut. Amangiri trialled up well and she could be an Oaks filly on her breeding but just respect her here. Sizzling Ace looks unders to me, while I don’t like the set up for Altair going 25 days between runs up in trip where there is a question on 1400m for him.

Advice: Final Award looks the gamble of the day here at $19 each-way. Really respect any strong push from the market for Mr Dependable or Amangiri.

Selections: 3-4-9-1.

3.Final Award ($9.50) – Blundered at start but clocked QL200 of the day Cant on a day hard to make ground- Up in trip can park closer (sat closer at trials) and should appreciate extra trip. J Parr striking at 22% last 50 rides too.

4.Mr Dependable ($6.20)- Two speedy trials.Beat Altair comfortably in first but he was pushed along and Altair wasn’t asked for an effort. Wide draw but should work across. By Reliable Man so 1400m fresh should be OK.

9.Amangiri ($9)- 1 trial- beaten 3L by subs winner Kolding but went to line without being asked effort. Stable normally have them ready fresh. Mum won 1900 and mum is a half to VRC Derby winner Amalfi. Could be an Oaks filly? Market?

1.Front Sight ($9)- On pace bias and soft tempo helped him run 2nd debut. 1400m should be OK as ½ bro to Romantic Touch and Burning Passion. Maps awkwardly with speed inside.

Other runners:

2.Altair ($11)- 3 Wide throughout Magic Millions Mdn (with cover) and stuck on OK. Placed 5 of 8. No superstar but will win one soon. Also awkward draw. Go back? 25 days since last run and query on 1400m?

5.Sizzling Ace ($11)- Competed in B70 LS but prefers it wet and 54 days since last run. Can’t tip her.

6.Oxidization ($9.50)- Two sound runs. Blinkers off, winkers on. Held up fresh and then entitled to run on LS but did. 1400m looks as if suits. Started $101 and $13?

7.Rexx ($11)- Took sit and OK first-up 1400m off three trials. Tact Formation and Star Of The Seas ran OK out of this since but didn’t win. Did start $3.60

8.Task And Purpose ($11)- Blinkers on LS, led, kicked and run down late. Slow to recover that day too. Form prior sound. Had a few chances but up on speed.

10.Loves To Rock ($174)- One trial, slow out, sweated up- 740m trial so not great set up 1400m debut but did close off in trial. Trial time just OK.

11.My Demetra ($174)- Contested weak MDN then disapp back in trip 2nd up. Extra trip may suit but not classy enough IMP

12.Vitesse ($35)- Jumped OK went back and overraced badly fresh. Does too much wrong!

13.Almerheri ($43)- Got back and ran on LS in race where 2nd won since but overall race figures avg and had a few chances.

14.Ifyouknowhatimean ($174)- Hit line in trial but ridden along. Can’t have on what he has done to date/ ½ sis is a G2 winner in South Africa.

 

R5- B70 1800m

Overview: This race all revolved around Rapido Chaparro and whether last start was just a one off or whether he can’t extend beyond a mile? He did make a respiratory noise there? With that in mind, I’m leaning to Salsa Man. He is on an upward spiral and looks to me as if 1800m will suit now.

Advice: Leaning to Salsa Man but he will be back and Rapido Chaparro will be leading so how is track pattern? Include Ahmad and Kelvinside in exotics.

Selections: 4-1-7-6.

4.Salsa Man ($4.50)- Just missed fresh but entitled to run on off hot speed. Overcame slow tempo to score at a mile second up. 1st crack 1800m (by I Am Invincible but mum won over 2000). Appears to be looking for further. Sectionally just OK LS.

1.Rapido Chaparro ($4.50)- Back to back wins one by 6L and then went too hard (raced keen) and faded 1900m LS + made respiratory noise. Won 1200 TRIAL since but racing manners mean 1800 still ?

7.Ahmad ($9.50)- 2 tough wins Nowra. Form around him mixed- Drops 4.5kg, McEvoy on, gets an OK run map. Mum won 2400, bred to stay.

6.Kelvinside ($9.50)- Gets back but speed should be genuine- Good behind subs Sat city winner (Cyber Intervention) two back and then held up 200-100 LS and should have finished closer. Finishes off.

Other runners:

2.Another Snappy ($16)- Beautifully rated in front LS in race where Cyber Intervention came out and won since. Doubt he takes Rapido Chaparro on here. Won up to 2200m but also overraces.

3.My Psychiatrist ($32)- Didn’t threaten fup and wait for imp. May need further again.

5.See The Master ($11.50)- More 1mnth bet runs when worked home OK Cant LS. Up to 1800m now- 5th Goodwood UK only 1800m run but bred to stay. Gate one. 565 days or 11 runs since last win.

8.Saint Katarina ($13)- Gun run through and had chance two starts back. Speedy cuts to pastern latest but disapp? Knocking on door but found mark a touch.

9.Sensacova ($26.50)- Won weak form race and then struggled at 1900m. Yet to prove herself beyond a mile- All her wins have been 1550-1600m

10.McMahon ($20)- Should appreciate extra trip but Salsa Man went past him LS. 2KG swing in weights his favour but doubt its enough.

11.Fraudelent ($80)-Clark on- Took off 650m from home LS and made sustained run- No match subs winner Nahuel prior. Won one race, doubt going well enough.

 

R6- 76 1000m

Overview: The blinkers did the trick for And So It Goes first-up and she just has to repeat that performance to go close here. Tchaikovsky and Star Of The Seas are the two interesting runners. Both have trialled up well and respect any strong pushes for them in the market. Tchaikovsky wasn’t disgraced in a San Domenico fresh last prep but has drawn awkwardly, while Star Of The Seas was two from two last prep but will he find 1000m too short? What Could Be is in the same boat but will close off late.

Advice: And So It Goes on top for now but I’m really wary of Tchaikovsky and Star Of The Seas. Happy to risk Royal Witness and he looks unders at $6.50.

Selections: 1-8-6-4-5

1.And So It Goes ($5)- Wore the blinkers for 1st time 1st up and responded to win well, clocking Q l600 of day in process. Carries weight and sits off good tempo. 2nd horse out of last race won since.

8.Tchaikovsky ($4.20)- Well bred colt- Blinkers 1st time. Beaten 5L in a very strong rating San Domenico first-up last prep- Two nice trials in strong trials- Won latest against Sandbar. Keen in latest trial though with blinkers on and awkward draw. Can run on with speed on. Always promised something.

6.Star Of The Seas ($6)- Half bro to Spieth- Two from two last prep- Two soft trials- 1000m too short or will quick tempo allow him to get into it? 175DLR.

4.What Could Be ($20)- Nice soft trial- Top 2 5/8 fup but 1000m could be too short? I know he has won at 1000m on Randwick course proper but that was a very slowly run race where he actually led. Soft tempo.

5.Lightz ($12.50)- Resuming no trials. Won fup last prep in dominant fashion Cl1 but didn’t beat much and this is a different level. FUP prep before loomed and knocked up. Fitness? Where is he at??

Other runners:

2.Platinum Tycoon ($29)- Excuses fresh- Poor post race recovery and galloped on. Still would need to improve and pace on here. Raced keen fup.

3.Raiden ($11)- Blinkers 1st time- OK fresh and has a nice turn of foot on day. Can miss the start though. Speed on helps.

7.Catmosphere ($40)- Two trials ordinary but no blinkers in them and they go on raceday. Still trialled bette in past and not sure has the right form for this.

9.Royal Witness ($17)- Sound win fresh but loses in another stride. Couldn’t lead and faded latest. Weak late and pressure here.

10.Mossman Gorge ($17)- Soft trial at Goulburn coming in. Won first two first up runs (2YO Handicap and Class 1) but disapp fup last prep. FUP 278 days a concern with a strong tempo.

11.Dream Charge ($101)- Jumped well went back for cover and finished too well Cessnock fup 45 weeks. Much tougher.

 

Race 7- B70 1400m

Overview: Pretty open race as the market suggests. I want to lean the way of Kolding if he gets a run and he overcame a slow tempo and on-pace bias to score first-up over 1200m. The 1400m will be more to his liking. I think Foreign Territory will be a better horse on wet ground but I have to respect him in his second racing prep. Cuba, Gitan, White Boots, Boomtown Rat, Juventus, Kaecilius, Desert Lord (looks unders), Seahampton and others are all capable.

Advice: Slight leaning to Kolding if he gets a run but this is wide open.

Selections: 14-7-10-6.

14.Kolding ($5)- Good win fresh- tempo against and only winner come from further back 4th on da. 1400m suits now. Progressing. Does he get a run?

7.Foreign Territory ($7)-Second racing prep- Two trials solid but 5 weeks between trials (was there an issue?). Looks leader in race. Prefers wet ground. Market push?

10.Kaecilius ($14)- Normally keen going horse but Tom Marquand got him to relax LS despite being wide throughout (1400m WF OK to do that as only one turn). Q (quickest) x 1400m races on day. 3rd/5th won since. Form prior avg so can he reproduce?

6.Cuba ($16)- Just missed to subs winner Fuchu two back and then shuffled back Moruya Cup and should have won. Drawn wide but will try slot in. Going OK.

Other runners:

1.White Boots ($14)- Resuming- Two nice trials. Won 5/9. 2nd B65 first up last prep at B65 1400m. Good run in transit, just whether 1400m too short only query.

2.Pelorus Jack ($24)- Entitled to run on fresh before peaking on run (race run good tempo allow backmarkers into it). 2 tickover trials since. 36 days betweens runs up in trip but two trials in between. Form out of fup race average- 6 subs st 2 placings.

3.Gitan ($16)- Not in it fup off short break but sprint home. Won Hway 2nd up 1400m last prep and all 5 wins at 1400m. Can improve here.

4.Boomtown Rat ($21)- QL200 of race and 6th quickest of night fup. Beaten 10L 2nd up last prep 1400m but clearly going well this time in. Just gets back?

5.My Song ($41)- Taken on in front and wrong part of track (hard fence not place to be) first-up and then pulled up 2/5 lame second-up. Had excuses but where is he at?

8.Juventus ($12)- Wrong part of track fup forgive, worked home good rating race secondup. Won at 1400m and 1300m but was weak last 100 both of those races my concern? Likeable with like from draw with in form app Robbie Dolan all the same.

9.Desert Lord ($12)- Blink off. Too keen fup and didn’t finish off as well as expected. Gelded this prep but jury still out. Needs to settle! Blink off could help.

11.Wine Bush ($600)- Two trials- FUP 427 days. Won 1/21. Pass.

12.Seahampton ($17)- Sit and sprint against last start but worked home. Been disap this prep. M Walker in form. Pref wet?

13.Cape Wickham ($28)- Won fup but set up for him Ncle, stuck to task 2nd up and then too hard in leading division latest. Blink off but needs find length or two still.

15.Beid ($19)i- Sit and sprint against latest and going OK. Doubtful to get run?

16.Stryke Rock ($38)- Set up for him Cl1 latest. No match Kaecilius prior.



Bradley Davidson - Sky Racing


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