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Brad Davidson’s Canterbury preview and tips – February 15

 Feb 15 2019

Best bet

Race 7 no.4 Miss Que $4.20 (rated $2.90)


150 unit betting strategy

Race 1 no.1 Judge Judi 20 unit win at $2.40

Race 1 quinella- no.s 1,6 for 5 units

Race 2 no.10 In A While 20 unit win at $4.60

Race 2 no.3 Poseidon Star 10 unit win at $10

Race 5 no.10 Buckle Up Baby 2 unit win at $21

Race 7 no.4 Miss Que 45 unit to win at $4.20

38 unit all-up ($2.40)- Race 6 no.5 I Am A Cool Kid to win ($1.45) into Race 7 no.4 Miss Que to place ($1.65)

10 unit Quaddie (starts r5 for 20.8%), - 1st leg: 1,2,4,6,9,10. 2nd leg: 5. 3rd leg: 4,5. 4th leg: 1,2,3,11.

Results for betting strategies for 2019 racing season (since Aug 1) so far: 636 units profit (16%POT, 3950 unit outlay).

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

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Weather: Fine, firm track expected.

Wind: Gentle easterly predicted (shouldn’t have much of an impact.

Rail out 3m-

History rail out 3m Canterbury-

16/02/2018       Cant      3m        g4          Fair track                                                    

23/05/2018       Cant      3m        G3         Getting to the middle was best but still could be 2-4 off            

4/07/2018         Cant      3m        S7          Fence adv early then wide. Tough to make gorund as a rule early                                                      

15/08/2017       Cant      3m        G4         Could not make ground here- no winner further back third. First two lanes also adv                                                      

16/11/2018       Cant      3m        G3         Pretty fair as always no disadv to be on pace                                          

4/01/2019         Cant      3m        G4         Very fair track no lanes and could make ground or win from front. Perfect                                         

23/01/2019       Cant      3M        G3         On pace no real lanes but on pace a medium adv            

Last meeting Canterbury- Last Friday night, rail true on a soft/heavy track and definite advantage to be on rails in run.                                               

Overall assessment- 3m rail with a good track is normally pretty fair at Canterbury. If anything, it could be a slight-medium advantage to be on pace.


Preview

Race 1

Overview: Hard to go past Judge Judi here and all three runs this prep have been good. She was stiff last start after being taken on in front by $101 pop (tailed off last at finish) and the backmarker got her late. She should lead and be hard to beat. I think the $2.60 is acceptable too. I also think the $4.60 about Genoveffa to run top two is a decent gamble (reasons below). Seahampton and Lady Of Shallot next best.

Advice: Judge Judi to win and something on Genoveffa to place as well. Could quinella/exacta them up otherwise.

Selections: 1-6-2-3

1.Judge Judi ($2.20)- All three runs this prep have been good. Stiff LS after being taken on in front by $101 pop (tailed off last at finish) and the backmarker got her late. Winner and 6th placegetter unplaced since but looks to control this rom the front and should be hard to beat.

6.Genoveffa ($7.50)- Disappointing last start as fav but her form prior was good. Beaten 1.5L behind Judge Judi three back (only .5kg weight swing here) and then tempo against and held up for 200m early in straight when second to Californiafirebird who should have won since. Good top two hope here.

2.Seahampton ($4.90)- OK off a slow tempo LS but she has been disappointing this time in. Offered little two back. Wins at 1200m and 1400m so 1550 still a slight query.

3.Lady Of Shallot ($8)- WNC fup but off slow tempo and was disappointing. Second up got cover midfield and ran OK. Never gone beyond 1200 and now goes 1200-1550m. Concede it won’t be a strong run 1550m but have to be against still.

Other runners:

4.Ardanza ($20)- Takes a little while to muster so I expect Judge Judi to cross and lead. Had her chance last two and this looks harder.

5.Titaness ($24)- Been in the top 4 last three runs but had chance last start. Tempo was against her two back at Wagga. The knock is there have been 17 subs starters out of her past three starts for not one winner.


Race 2

Overview: I like Poseidon Star but why I can’t get super keen is he just doesn’t seem to settle. His trial was super, first up the distance was far too short but he ran really well clocking the quickest last 400m and 200m splits of the day off a slow tempo. Second up pushed out on turn and just caught by first starter who looks good and has trialled well since. Nominated for a Derby and bred to get a trip. 1550m looks ideal from the good gate and it just depends how much he pulls during the run. Still happy to have something on at $10 which looks overs. In A While is the horse to beat and value as well. She should have won last start after she couldn’t get a run until the 125m mark. I’ve got her marked a clear fav.

Advice: Backing two horses here to win in Poseidon Star and In A While.

Selections:

3-10-1-4

3.Poseidon Star ($7)- Liked him here. Trial was super, first up far too short but ran really well. QL400/200 day there off slow tempo/ Second up circled and just caught by first starter who looks good. They gapped the rest. Should love 1550m on breeding. Overs.

10.In A While ($4)- Should have won LS. Only got out 125m from hime and was in front past the post. Draws well again. Clear horse to beat.

1.Tactical Formation ($6)- Both runs back good where tempo has been against but more pressure here. Bumped at start LS and wide early overracing without cover until found cover. Drifts back and gets chance late.

4.Rexx ($7.50)- Had chanve two runs this prep and now 1550m. By I Am Invincible but mum won a mile. 1550?

Other runners:

2.Altair ($8)-3 Wide throughout Magic Millions Mdn (with cover) and stuck on OK. Just OK 1400m when almost a month between runs LS. 1550M? 1ST crack at trip and didn’t attack line 1400m? Placed 5 of 9.

5.Heaven’s Dream- Would need to improve a biT.

6.Pop Girl ($8.50)- Prob stiff not to win two back when riding ceased riding full or sufficient vigour according to stewards report late near 60m mark for a brief moment and horse beaten .1L. Best of on pacers in race for off pacers latest. Winner LS beaten at Canberra start prior and 2nd Loveseat (who beat her home) was beaten 3L by Poseidon Star prior.

7.Home Scene ($15)- Blinkers off in bid to get him to relax. Had every possible LS. More pressure here. Pref others.

8.Duchess Of Windsor- Stuck on for 5th Canb 1300m MDN LS but 1st/2nd average since (2nd beaten Qbyn Mdn). Runner up prior in avg form race where L600 quite slow. Prefer others.

9.Hamish The Swift ($121)- Ran on Bathurst latest but form/ratings av there. Did loom 100-1 three back WF but others preferred. Winner LS beaten 7L/11L two starts prior.

11. Tormund ($1200)- prefer others.


Race 3

Overview: This looks a nice race for Californiafirebird, who should have won last start when he copped a nasty check on the turn. The lack of speed is my only real concern. Ikara Miss could well lead these up and give them something to catch, while Georgica is building towards something and will appreciate a firmer track.

Advice: Californiafirebird looks hard to beat.

Selections: 2,5,1,6.

2. Californiafirebird ($3.10)- Won KG 1600m and then showed 1900m no issue when no lick and should have won latest over 1900m. Claim helps, good track no issue. Should go close. Bit keen in run latest. Stable flying!

5.Ikara Miss ($5)- Good win in sit and sprint latest and 3rd won since. Should be nice and handy in run. Can’t say no although beaten Class 1 two back.

1.Georgica ($5)- Building towards something here. Too short fresh and then ran on OK second up but entitled to way race was run (slow l600). 1900 helps as does back onto firmer surface.Bowman on. Won third up 2100m last prep.

6.Kelvinside ($10)- Running on well of late (should have finished closer two back at Canterbury). Just needs everything to go right as lack of tempi query.

Other runners:

3. Red Dubawi ($12)- Won Newcastle last start but set up there with a good tempo and slow L600. Lack of tempo the query?

4.Via Veneto- Pulled up 2/5 lame last start and never travelled after bump on turn. Prefer on drier track as has now. Lack of tempo again the ? Can bounce back!

7.Seababe ($24)- Meets Red Dubawi 2kg better off from LS not much between them there. Gets in light but only won 2/22 and had a few chances.

8.Sharp Speedo ($32)- No match Red Dubawi and Seababe LS and disappointing proor.

9.Tiger’s Story ($96)- Prefer others.


Race 4

Overview: Wayanka was pretty good first-up and he just has to see out the 1550m to go close here. The lack of tempo in the race should help. Bull Market won a very weak race in a canter last start but is still on the up this prep, while Domed and Bajan Gold (market?) look best of the rest.

Advice: Wayanka on top but well found. Tricky race.

Selections: 2-6-3-4

2.Wayanka ($3.60)- Solid first-up in avg rating race but was Sat grade. Scr last Friday night due to wet track. 1550m slight ? but gets soft run on speed. Bowman on. Up 4kg.

6.Bull Market ($5)- Beaten home by Nicochet two back and then won as he pleased last start but expected that as rivals were weak. 2nd beaten 2.3L in Class 1 since.

3.Domed ($6.50)- OK fresh in race not run to suit (QL200 of race). Slow tempo here a ? ut McDonald on. Last 2 wins at 1900m. One more?

4.Bajan Gold ($7)- 2nd in recent Geelong trial where easily had Desert Path’s measure. 2 wins overseas 2000m. All form on good tracks.

Other runners:

1.Desert Path ($22)- Trial just fair. Win overseas 2000-2300. Bowman rides over stablemate though.

5.Brother In Arms ($13)- Sat o’side lead and disappointing LS but pulled up 1/5 lame. In right spot prior. Bit one paced but soft run on speed and drops 5kg with claim.

Nicochet- Form is good. Beat home Bull Market and then stuck to task good rating race Rhill latest. 1550m slight query (has placed at 2000m but just prefer 1400m for him). Sticky draw lack of speed?

8.Makdanife ($9)- Stuck to task fup. Drops 6kg from there bt would need to lift on last prep. Back to good surface not ideal. All form soft.



Race 5

Overview: Very open race this. It probably all revolved around Call Me Royal. She was a good winner first-up and if she has gone on from that she looks the horse to beat again. Sundarbans trialled up well enough for this, Stay Smart is an improver, Albert’s No Pussy is going well in weaker and you could make a case to say Buckle Up Baby should have gone close to winning last start but his form prior was disappointing. Messy race!

Advice: I could have throw at the stumps with Buckle Up Baby at $19 but it would literally be a throw at one stump side on from the boundary. Call Me Royal the horse to beat but a lot of angles here.

Selections: 4-10-2-1

4.Call Me Royal ($2.75)- Led at a good pace and kept on going fresh. Didn’t beat much but had QL200 of the race and is a deserved favourite.

10.Buckle Up Baby ($14)- Disappointing first two starts this prepand then good late when .6L off Sargaent in Q 3 x 1200m races on day Gosdord. Should have finished closer too as Sargeant ran out late (protested against winner but dismissed). Mdn win last prep visually very good (time wise not as much).

2.Sundarbans ($8)- Won two from four last prep and recent trial was solid. Two races won last prep in just OK figures and not great form races but chance in this open race.

6.Stay Smart ($6.50)- Started $31 on debut and Goulburn and won well. Time was .9s slower class 2 on day (Common Purpose won that though) and 2nd horse he beat comfortably should have gone close in a couple of city maidens this prep. Bowman rides.

Other runners:

1.Albert’s No Pussy ($11)- Won two of 4 this prep. Sat outside leader and held on latest. 2nd horse finished 7th Walcha Cl3 since and times just fair but this isn’t a strong race.

3.Ballistica ($15)- Won in soft figures three back, chased home Bombarding in  a weak form race and then was OK in a race that developed into a sprint home latest. Claim helos.

7.Hoges ($23)- Ran on OK fup at Newc and did win Mdn 2nd up last prep.

9.Le Lude ($11)- Good win fup Gof whee she got the dream run but gave them a start. Started $1.7f Goulburn and had her chance there. McDonald on.

11.Notabadharada (137)- Would need to improve off first up run in Aus in average rating race.


 

Race 6

Overview: I Am A Cool Kid was superb first-up and he should win again here. I suppose the 1200m is a slight query but he clocked outstanding time and should carry on towards the Country Championships where he is second favourite. Wander and Vega could add value to the multiples.

Advice: He does look the winner I Am A Cool Kid. Multis or one out in quaddie perhaps?

Selections: 5-12-4-3

5.I Am A Cool Kid ($1.50)- Should be winning this. FUP win enormous clocking sensational time (.2s quicker Sylvia’s Mother who goes around second fav in a G2 Sat at Randwick!). Eased down fup. Never been to 1200m but shouldn’t be a big issue (out of a Zabeel mare).

12.Vega ($14)- No luck LS. Had to go right back from gate and then held up in straight. Gate cost him victory two back. Racing week. Prob prefers wet but can settle closer and J Mac sticks.

4.Wander ($17)- Last run was huge- Had to go right back then clocked QL600,400,200m splits of dat. Can park closer and enjoyed 1250m last start. Overall 1200 record avg. Can he repeat as form prior LS just fair.

3.Handle The Truth ($16)- Won 4 from 7. Handy horse. No trials but won’t be far off the mark with residual fitness. Beat I Am Capitan 0.8L last start, I Am A Cool Kid beat him 4.5L eased down latest.

Other runners:

2.Fun Fact ($57)- Now with Bjorn Baker (formerly with Waterhouse/Bott). Trials just OK. All 3 x wins 1600m. Further?

7.Spring Creek Star ($57)- 2 solid trials- No luck first up last prep in 1200m Cl1 Wyong when 4 wide throughout and running on for 2nd in race 4 winners have came out of. Tricky draw the knock and class?

8.Symi ($15)- Ridden off speed and clopsed off OK two trials. Won first up t/d when soft lead t/d last prep. Should improve but hard to get excited about too much off trials.

9.Count Dekroner ($100)- Won fup, disappointing since then. Can pop up from time to time but hard to trust.

11.Gundy ($57)- Winner came from behind him LS at Goulburn. This looks harder and stepping up to 1200m (4th only run 1280).

13.Grimoire ($21)- Just missed three way go fresh. Won 2nd up last prep 1200m but sticky draw here and this is a good race?


Race 7

Overview: I’m really keen on Miss Que here and I think she is the bet of the weekend providing there is not a massive on pace bias tonight. The money has come for Oriental Runner, who should lead and I’m respecting that but Miss Que just looks to have a class edge on them here. She won her first two first-up runs at this track and distance (good track too) and then first-up last prep she was wide and had to go right back to the tail and was beaten less than half a length to Trekking and Tactical Advantage. She clocked the best late splits of the day and you could argue with a better gate she wins that race. With all due respect to this field, Tactical Advantage or Trekking would be odds on here. She should be midfield or just worse here and providing they can run on, she should be terribly hard to hold out. Oriental Runner looks the only real danger to me if it’s really on pace and he dictates in front. He is a much better horse when he can lead and the money has arrived for him. Invincible Quest next best and he can reel off a sectional on his day! He is first-up in a long time though and I doubt he can give Miss Que weight and he will probably be behind her in the run too.

Advice: Best of the night and weekend for me in Miss Que. Just hoping for an even track as the danger probably leads.

Selections: 4-5-1-8

4. Miss Que ($2.90)- Looks terribly hard to beat- Won 2/3 first up (both wins at this t/d) and then gate prob cost her victory last start when wide and had to go right back against Trekking and Tactical Advantage. Clocked QL600, 400 day in process! Parks midfield. HTB!

5. Oriental Runner ($4)- Not far away fresh. Prefer when he can lead. Yet to place 2nd up but did run in June Stakes when off track on heavy going forgive second-up last prep.

1.Invincible Quest ($8)- Fup since Feb- Really good fresh horse. Two trials- seven weeks in between? Trials solid. Has a habit of bucking on odd occasion in the past. Can finish off well here.

8.It’s So Obvious ($7)- Wide and working when too good defeating subs winner fup. Sat outside lead caught late last start. Up on speed, JMAC on. Runs well.

Other runners:

2. King River ($61)-WNC first-up and didn’t run on. Forgive. Form a but mixed in past. Won 2/5 second up but wait for improvement.

6. So Spirited ($36)- Bar plates off. OK fresh and has won 2/4 second up. Justgets back.

7. Old Man Sam ($61)- Struggled last prep- No trials. Market>

9.Flash Fibian ($184)- Just fair fresh. Unplaced 4 runs second up. Prefer others.

10. Epic Dan ($23)- Won av rating racein close three way go last start. Nice win all the same. 1100m now.

12. Call Me Brad ($46)- Had chance LS but only 1.5L off in form All Too Royal. Form just OK for race like those.


Race 8

Overview: Extremely tough way to finish. Not much between Mollyfied, Divine Breeze and Seaglass. Lady Elizabeth isn’t out of it either.

Advice: Take at least 1,2,3 in the quaddie and add 11 too if you like.

Selections: 3-1-2-11

3. Divine Breeze ($4)- Change of tactic to take sit LS and just missed. Race run to suot but good effort. Blinkers again. Do they take sit again? Went too hard two starts propr.

1.Mollyfied ($4)- Good win first up but she got a very easy lead on a soft track. Zipped home OK last 600. Up 4.5kg. Easy time on speed again? McEvou sticks. Is she better soft going?

2. Seaglass ($5)- Forgive first up when got back soft tempo and absolute sprint home. Her last 600m of 33.20 was only 8th quickest of race. The race L600 was quicker than Alizee same day!

11.Lady Elizabeth ($8)- Going well. Held up top straight LS and runs either side of that good. Late splits of slow tempo last start was solid. 1400m back to 1250?

Other runners:

5.All Sassitude ($30)- Good win LS  Q 3 X 1200m races day. 3rd Safe Landing won since. This looks a fair bit tougher.

6.Lady I Am ($60)- Beaten 3.5L Divine Breeze LS and only gets 1kg swing. Prefer others.

7.Lettre D’Amour ($30)- Plugged away fresh. Step up to 1250 positive- Wins 1300m or 1400m. Just class ? and whether extra 100m?

8.Second Island ($20)- Made ground first-up after slow out. All wins 1000m. 1250m?

10.Polyxena ($30)- Good win latest but form out of race just fair and this looks a fair bit tougher.



Bradley Davidson - Sky Racing


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