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Brad Davidson’s preview and tips for Kensington, February 20

 Feb 20 2019

Best value plays

Race 5 no.8 Royal Stamp e/w at $13 and $4.60 rated $8 (only two place divs)

TAB Odds here https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2019-02-20/RANDWICK/RAN/R/5?runner=8?from=sky

 

Race 1 no.9 Almeheri e/w at $9.50 and $3.90 1 x 3 (3 times more on the place than win despite only 2 place divs) (rated $4.50)

TAB Odds here https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2019-02-20/RANDWICK/RAN/R/1/Win?runner=9?from=sky

 

Hardest to beat

Race 2 no.2 Classique Legend

https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2019-02-20/RANDWICK/RAN/R/2

 

Betting strategy

100 unit betting strategy (please note a unit is whatever you’re comfortable with- most betting strategies will be from 50-150 units depending on confidence levels and betting opportunities)

Race 1 no.9 Almeheri 10 unit win at $9.50 and 15 unit place at $3.90 (two place divs)

Race 2 no.2 Classique Legend 15 unit to win at $2.80

Race 4 no.9 Ahmad 10 unit win at $3.90

Race 5 no.8 Royal Stamp 10 units to win at $13 and 15 units to place at $4.60 (two place divs)

Race 6 no.4 Alnaas 15 units to place tote

Race 7 no.3 Cuba 10 units to place tote

Results for betting strategies for 2019 racing season (since Aug 1) so far: 515 units profit (12%POT, 4200 unit outlay).

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

Weather: 10ml early Wednesday morning. Looking more like a soft track now.

Wind: Gentle south easterly predicted. Shouldn’t have too much of an impact.

Track

Kensington- Rail out 5m. History with rail out 5m:

31/10/2018       Kenso    5m        G3         Only one winner further back than 3rd on day settling but could make ground. Wider the better late                                             

1/01/2019         Kenso    5m        G3         Pretty fair track. Hard fence maybe not best part last half card. Could make ground                                          

Assessment: Seems to be more tempo related and this track seems to be evening out a touch after playing fairly on pace when it came back. We will monitor though and it could be on pace.

Preview

 

Race 1

Overview: Mr Dependable the horse to beat and he should get a soft lead compared to working hard last start. The horse I want to back at the odds though is Almeheri. She had to go right back from the gate last start and can settle much closer.

Advice: Almeheri 1 x 4 (4 times the amount on the place). Mr Dependable hard to beat all the same.

Selections: 9-7-1-6

9.Almeheri ($4.50) Ran on all three starts this prep. Had to go right back last start before running on. Key is can settle much closer here. Gets her chance. Started $31 LS.

7.Sharapova ($7)- Got warm late on debut and then sat behind speed latest and held up in straight. Doubt was going to win. Trials on dry tracks good prior to two wet track runs to open career. 1400m should be OK?

1.Costas ($4.50)- No match exciting Diplomatico on debut and then $2.60-$2.10 when tempo against second up, one trial just fair this time in. Bowman on.

6.Carif ($10)- Pushed along to win latest or two trials but beat two horses that have been well held only race starts to date. OK last prep. Out of Norzita (Vinery Stud Stakes winner). Needs to lift.

Other runners:

2.Arrogante ($5)- Solid chase debut. Mum won up to a mile so extra trip suits. Whether right form? Third finished 9th Newcastle mdn since.

3.Flying Legend ($9)- Paraded very big in condition fresh off one trial and ran well. Adana/Roheryn form last prep. Should get across OK. Should improve fitness wise. 1100-1400. One more?

5.Oxidisation ($10)- Blink off last start and disapp. Form prior solid Canterbury. Blinkers back on (was a bit keen with them on two back). A few others more upside?

8.Adagirl ($22)- Held up in str debut but just OK when clear. Can be slow out. Wait for improvement.

10.Vitesse ($14)- Overraces and does too much wrong to be a betting proposition IMO.

 

Race 2

Overview: There was plenty of style in Classique Legend’s only trial win and the fact Kerrin McEvoy went to Hawkesbury just for that trial speaks volumes. Got Your Six is the one Classique Legend does things wrong on debut. Full Recognition is likely to miss the start as he has done at the trials but should run on.

Advice: Classique Legend to win.

Selections: 2-9-5-1

2.Classique Legend ($2.70)- One trial so fitness? Lovely trial though. Q 4 x 1000m heats. Lovely action and style. Half to Puppet Master. Travelled sweetly. McEvoy went to Hawkesbury for one trial too and rides here.

9.Got Your Six ($4)- Professional- Just missed debut when caught late by a smart one. Sits up on speed (prob outside lead) and kicks again.

5.Full Recognition ($5)- Slow out in two trials and closed off very stylishly. L600 35.70 In latest trial just OK.

1.Charm Offensive ($14)-Runner up fup at KG when caught late. Time was poor. 7L slower B64 same day and mainly last 600m. Blinkers on. Drawn touch awkwardly with speed inside.

7.Chilled Rose ($10)- Started $1.50 and caught on line first up. Third horse (beaten 2L) has won since at Ncle. 1100m now with speed inside? 1/2to G3 winner Bound For Blush.

Other runners:

3.Completed ($62)- Trials avg. Prefer others.

4.Freedom Rock ($31)- Jumped OK settled off them in trial and finished off only OK.

6.Line Up Girls ($21)- Resuming. No trials. Would need to improve a bit off late prep.

8.Glamour Cruise ($41)- Got home OK fup- QL600 of day. This is a lot harder/

10.Nature- Comes through race 2L slower than 2YO Mdn. Needs to lift.

 

Race 3

Overview: Messy race. Mossman Gorge the horse to beat off his debut effort but I’m respecting Cristobal and I’m So Sweet as well. I have to be a bit against Royal Witness who seems to always take up a good section of the market.

Advice: Mossman Gorge on top but I’m scared of Cristobal and I’m So Sweet.

Selections: 1-2-6-4

1.Mossman Gorge ($3.35)- Soft lead but nice win first up in some time. Sprinted home quickly. Last 600m was slick. 6th horse Raiden won since Brisbane Cl3. Down in grade (tougher race though), only up 2kg after claim.

2.Cristobal ($4)- Two trials just fair? Latest no blinkers and they go on race day. Mixed prep last time in- 3rd to Gem Song/Royal Celebration reads really well but runs either side disapp? WNC first up last prep and beat luckless Miss Fab other fresh run on debut. Betting?

6.I’m So Sweet ($6)- Trialled OK no blinkers. 1st up runs OK.  Wins 1100-1200?

4.Chewbacca ($9)- 1000m too short? Surely set to peak at Goulburn Country Champs Qualifier. Bowman on.

Other runners:

3.Royal Witness ($10)- What you see is whAt you get. Up on speed, lacks class a few of these others. Will give a kick thogh.

5.Dream Charge ($22)- Jumped well, took sit when couldn’t cross fup and too good Cessnock. Should be on speed early (does he lead or take sit?). Just up a long way in class? 1 ½ months between runs.

7.Prophet’s Thumb- Tongue Tie 1st time- Cardiac arrythmia last start, win prior enormous although beat nothing (8 subs st 1 placing). Only knock is probably back last here on track that can play leaderish? Trialled much better than Cristobal in tover trial since last start.

8.Valeria ($11)- Nice trial. Led and kept going to win well beating likes of Invincible Gem and Miss Que. Only won one race and that was first-up mdn. Strikes a tough field.

 

Race 4

Overview: Hard to go past Ahmad here and he looks a stayer on the rise. He carted the field up to Another Snappy last start and still clocked the quickest last 200m split of the race. He will probably have to do the same thing here and that’s the knock. Respecting Calibration and Another Snappy. King Viv has upside but second-up at 1800m is the knock?

Advice: Ahmad to win.

Selections: 9-6-8-3

9.Ahmad ($3.50)- Tough stayer won 3/5 overall. Took step to town las start and held rivals at bay despite carting field up to tearaway leader Another Snappy. Probably does same here. One to beat. 3KG swing AS favour.

6.Calibration ($5.50)- Former DK Weir having first run for new stable. WNC latest and stuck on OK. Ran on solidly prior Cauflield in race that has produced three winners since.

8.Another Snappy ($8)- Keen going horse. Best let roll in front. Racing well of late. Meets Ahmad 3kg better. Always capable but needs to be rated well.

3.King Viv ($10)- Got home OK first-up. 1800m second up off a long break the query  ut has class this horse. Just whether he has kms in legs.

Other runners:

1.King Tomlola ($12)- Three runs back from spell OK. Taken on in front two back. Bit keen LS. Has won 1800 but just going OK. B88-B76 but up 6.5lg. Parr on in form.

2.Green Sweet ($13)- 697DLW. Ran on OK well last two but L600 very slow latest and race run quick early. Good pressure here too. Place chance.

4.Plymouth Road ($20)- First two runs back poor but he Is a real stayer. Extra trip should help. Might be able plug home into place. Better suited 2000m+.

5.Love Shack Baby ($10)- Had chance last start. First crack 1800m now seems a ?

7.Amanito ($21)- Solid effort fresh and then always near rear last start. Two runs 1800m beaten 9L (Group 2) and 13L. That’s a query.

 

Race 5

Overview: Royal Stamp looks a bet here and put her pen through her first-up run where it was too wet for her and she was also on the wrong part of the track (you needed to be on the rail that night). I wish the rain didn’t arrive overnight but providing it’s not too wet I’m happy to be with her (soft 6 or better). Wine Bush also has claims providing he doesn’t suffer from the second-up syndrome off a long break. Desert Lord was given a perfect steer last start. He can win again but does too much wrong at the moment for me to take short odds about him.

Advice: Royal Stamp each-way (only two place divs)

Selections: 8-9-6-1

8.Royal Stamp ($8)-Forgiving first up. Liked trials and rain came (better on dry IMO) and then wasn’t on the fence in running which was a clear advantage IMO. Can bounce back. Won only start this track. Good roughie.

9.Wine Bush ($9)- Nice return- Beat home Royal Stamp 2L last start. First run since Dec 17 and that’s the query 2nd up off long break> JMAC sticks though andnwell weighted.

6.Desert Lord ($2.40)- OK fresh, blinkers off settled touch better. Went to front and kept going to score latest. Time only .1s quicker Mdn on day?

1.Wayanka ($6)- On quick back up from last Friday night. Two runs have been solid. Bit keen in front LS and tired late. Should trail here. 1550 still a ? and hasn’t won 472 days but racing well/ Bowman sticks.

Other runners:

2.Plaisir ($18)- Got back and ran on last few but no real impact. Won mile before so no issue there. Beaten 3.5L Wayanka LS and gets 3.5kg swing. Can they run in?

3.Taikomochi ($13)- 2 trials pushed along and solid. FUP since May last year. Blink off, synthetic hoof filler off, tongue tie off. Won fup last prep Wellington 1400m.

4.White Boots- Solid effort fresh. QL200 of race and 2/2 this distance. Won second up mile Cessnock last prep. Probably prefers even 1800-2000 but runs well. Meets DL .5kg worse off for being beaten 2L by it LS.

5.Scratches ($16)- One trial- Closed off well enough late. 1550m too short? Came into own 1800m plus last prep.

7.Toulouse ($36)- Beaten fair way first-up. Costello finished 5th though and won well since . Wait for improvement? Prefer wet?

 

Race 6

Overview: Track pattern will be key here. Can they make ground? If the track is fair, Romani Girl looks the one with the upside. Track bias and lack of tempo cost her first-up but she was well backed and the step up to 1400m suits.Bubbles’n’troubles was stakes placed last prep and should get every chance on speed, while Alnaas is really settling this prep with the blinkers off and looks slight value.

Advice: Track pattern key here. Romani Girl if playing fair or otherwise it could lean me to Bubbles’n’troubles. Alnaas looks a touch of overs all the same. Tough race.

Selections: 6-2-4-9

6.Romani Girl ($3.90)- Track (had to be on rail and she wasn’t) and tempo against fup. Wins 1300 and 1550m last prep super. McEvoy on. Did JMac choose Bubblesntroubles? 1/1 track. Strong late.

2.Bubblesntroubles ($5.50)- Two soft trials, stakes placed (weak stakes race though) last prep. FUP 1400m? JMAC on. Goes forward.

4.Alnaas ($8)- Blinkers off this prep and really made a difference as she has been able to settle. All three runs strong. 3rd QL200 of day latest when tempo slow early. Good effort to win from 9th.

9.Feather ($10)- OK first up after being slow to behing. Can settle closer. Won only starter 1400m and dry stats better than wet. Avdulla sticks. Bit of a gap between runs?

Other runners:

1.Marcellina ($44)- Trial just fair. Did win mdn 1400m fup last prep in NZ but hard to have here unless money comes for her.

3.Laburnum ($9)- Good win latest 1200m KG. Won 1350m Wyng debut but still a slight query 7 furlongs for me. Weak late both runs dist range. Solid win latest all the same.

5.Righteousness ($22)- Two trials solid enough. Best form 1800m? Wins 1500 and 1800.

7.Eugene’s Pick ($13)- OK first up as tempo again. Will appreciate firmer track if it eventuare. 1400m suits too. Just gate? Gets back?

8.Swiss ($16)- Good win latest (had the right run) and then race before has produced 4 winners. Doubt she has\strong enough form lines all the same. Won 2/12.

10.Wide Spread Panic ($45)- Needs to lift.

 

Race 7

Overview: Rock didn’t set the world alight figures wise with his last start maiden win but he was on the wrong part of the track and I think the wet ground was against him. He can go on. Kolding was caught three wide no cover last start and did race a touch keen as a result. He beat all bar Desert Lord there who went around as fav earlier in the day (how did he go?). Cuba is probably the value in the race and he was held up from the 400-200m last start and should have won the Moruya Cup prior (shuffled back and lost 2L in the run).

Advice: Could speck Cuba if he got out to silly odds. No knocks on the two favourites.

Selections: 4-6-3-8

4.Rock ($3.80)- Figures out of Mdn win just ordinary (.4s slower B70 day) but overcame bias (had to be on rail in run) that niught. Should appreciate firmer. Chased home Teminology MM Maiden two back and that horse has been beaten 2L in Light Fingers since.

6.Kolding ($4)- Won fup at 1200m in good fashion, second up 3WNC and a bit keen when second to Desert Lord. Beat home Cuba, Foreign Territory and Beidi there. 1kg swing Cuba’s favour. Runs well.

3.Cuba ($8)- Hidden run LS. Held up 400-200 and stuck on. Should have won Moruya Cup prior IMO. Should roll forward.

8.Acquittal ($8)- 3WNC LS when stuck on behind Noble Boy in Q 4 X 1200m races on day. Only win cam at 1400m. Prefers wet? Only won 1/10.

Other runners:

1.Our Mantra ($20)- OK fup in sit an sprint, last two just OK. Had big weight latest and will appreciate firmer track. Claim helps.

2.Foreign Territory ($14) OK fup. Lost lead mid race and just plugged. Prefers it wet?

5.China Gale- Two trials OK. Won 2/3 last prep. A few of these a bit sharp at 1400m?

7.Sergeant ($10)- Good win second up in easily quickest 3 x 1200m races day. Form out of race ordinary though (6 subs starters, 1 placing). 1400m? 3WNC only run 1400m forgive but didn’t finish off 1300m Sandown either?

9.Beidi ($33)- Tempo against two back but never ran on LS although nothing did in that race with Kolding etc?

10.Intense Focus ($12)- Blinkers 1st time. Worst part of track (hard fence) LS forgive. Chased home subs two time winner You Make Me Smile prior. Won Mdn 1400m but still a  slight ? this trip. Firmer track should suit.  1st/2nd.3rd/5th all well held since out of LS.

11.My Blue Jeans ($16)- Prefers wet but overall time .2s quicker Rock same t/d last start on same night. Neither horse on best ground either. Won 1500m in past. Just prefer wet.

12.Charming Lad ($41)- Got home well late fup. 2nd 1400m WF 2nd up last prep but run very quick tempo and L600 very slow. Needs a lot to go right. Prefer as outside place hope.




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