Advertisement
TAB.com.au | Sky Racing | Sky Sports Radio

Back to Expert Comment

Brad Davidson Randwick preview and tips - March 2 

 Feb 28 2019

Randwick March 2

Betting strategy (*please note prices are pre scratchings and deductions will be applied to results if we collect on any of the below)

Race 1 no.7 Haames 3 unit fixed win at $6.5

Race 1 no.12 Belfast Bella 2 unit fixed win $12

Race 1 no.10 Tiara Road 1 unit fixed win $12

Race 1 boxed trifecta for 4 units-2,7,10,12.

Race 3 no.7 Sun Patch 5 unit fixed win at $11

Race 7 no.12 Pohutukawa 10 unit fixed win at $4.80

Race 8 no.2 Noire 10 unit fixed win at $7

Race 8 no.4 Bella Martini 10 unit fixed win at $8.50

5 unit Winx out market- Unforgotten at $7

5 unit Quaddie: (starts r6, 20.8%)- 1st leg: 5. 2nd leg: 12,7. 3rd leg: 4,2,1,8. 4th leg: 8,3,5.

Results for betting strategies for 2019 racing season (since Aug 1) so far: 648.5 units profit (15%POT, 4405 unit outlay).

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

Weather- Expecting a good track but could change?

Wind- Moderate NE predicted. Head wind in home straight and tail wind down back straight (horses on fence in sprint trips (1400 below) will be getting hit side on by this wind).

Rail out 6m

History with rail out 6m-

5/02/2017         Rand     6m        G4         Fair maybe 5 off fence best but OK                                                   

10/03/2018       Rand     6m        F2-g3    Played really quick don't think hard fence was place to be but still could make some ground                                             

21/04/2018       Rand     6M        g3          Fast TRACK on pace early and then could make ground. Pretty solid track. On pace favoured naturally                                                 

23/06/2018       Rand     6m        h9         Tough to make ground from a long way back- out wide slight adv but could win closer too.                                           

6/10/2018         Rand     6m        H9         Very fair track this- touch on pace early but could win from anywhere, fence, out wide etc                                              

29/12/2018       Randwick           6m        G4         Pretty fair track. Fence no disadv first 5 races         

Track assessment- Pretty fair seems to be most likely assessment but wind could play a part (see above).                      

Preview

Race 1

Overview: Good race to kick off the day for the Highway horses. Haames was terribly unlucky last start and he had something to offer but could never get a crack at them. He will appreciate a dry surface again here. Tiara Road has been going well of late and she is another one hoping for a dry track. Like Haames, she was entitled to run on last start but her run three back was pleasing as well. Belfast Bella was caught three wide no cover first-up and has been kept fresh for this, while Dream Builder both seem to be looking for a mile now and also have claims.

Advice: Say you have 5 units on the race I could have 2 unit win Haames at $6, 1 unit win Belfast Bella at $11 and 2 unit boxed trifecta-1,2,7,10,12.

Selections: 7-12-10-2

7.Haames ($5.50)- Complete forgive LS when blocked up the entire straight. Should have gone close with blinkers on. Good next to subs winner Fui San prior on wet ground and run prior on good was an eye catcher. Shinn on a plus.  Entitled to finish off all the same last start due to speed. A touch keen with blinkers last start but they should roll again?

12.Belfast Bella ($7.50)- 3WNC first up forgive. 4 weeks between runs draws a good gate with a winnable weught. Was beaten 12L first up though.

10.Tiara Road ($8.50)- Race run to suit but got home really well from the back last start. Run three back was also very good when Q l200 of race. Going well

2.Dream Builder ($10)- Found the line well enough fresh and extra trip should suit. Beaten 3L in a Highway last prep but that was on a heavy track. All his form is on top of the ground.

Other runners:

3.Hard Core ($9)- Won 2 straight home track in convincing fashion and then not far off in Canberra Guineas. Looks the leader but 1st crack at 1600m at Randwick. Last 200m?

4.My Blue Jeans ($18)- Pulled up 2/5 lame last start but she is a mare that wants the rain to come. 1600m? (won 1500m but not a strong field)

5.Pierino ($9)- Had his chance LS but does meet Fun Tickets and Dream Builder better at weights for beating them home. 1600m?

6.Weston ($13)- 3 wide last start but seemed to have cover. Bit disappointing late. 1600m should be OK. Won 2/16.

8. Splash Of Lime ($24)- Nice country win latest but poor strike rate and others have more upside,

9.Airfree ($36)- OK at Nowra last start but needs to lift and 1600 a ?

11.Onemore Sapphire ($14)- Good finish to win Mdn and looks as if mile at Randwick will suit. Did beat a 28 starts mdn last start and ov time was .7s slower than Splash Of Lime on same day (diff race shapes though).

13.No Doubt Ma’am ($48)- Just fair last start and this looks harder.

Pink Moscato- Looks to be up against it here.

Race 2

Overview: Not a race I’m overly keen on to be honest. Penske looks the horse to beat but he is short enough all the same considering he has the 61kg and goes to 2000m for the first time. Cosmologist was wide without cover first-up and will be better for the run, while Hursley put the writing on the wall with a big first-up run and Hugh Bowman sticks with him. Looks Like Elvis is also going great guns of late and any rain around would improve his chances.

Advice: I struggled to find any value here.

Selections: 1-4-10-9

1.Penske ($4.20)- Tough on pace win at a mile. Did all the early work and still clocked 2nd Ql200 of race. Up to 61kg now and 2000m for the first time the two levellers.

4.Cosmologist ($6)- 3WNC first-up and stuck on. 2000m is a good distance for him. 2nd up is he half a run short? Prefers it wet. Meets Penske 3kg better off at the weights. Trials prior were pleasing.

10.Looks Like Elvis ($7)- Beaten a nose last start off a slow tempo. Good on best going at WF two back. Prefers wet but last run showed he can run well on top of the ground too. Underrated type.

9.Hursley ($8.50)- Good from back first-up and did going close to winning second up 2000m Melb last prep. 658 days since his last win though.

Other runners:

2.Dark Eyes ($42)-Getting out to right trip but hard to have on two runs this prep. Blinkers again.

3.Doukhan ($36)- Two trials just fair. R/UP to Moss N Dale this t/d first-up last prep but that was a heavy track. Would probably need it wet to be a knockout hope.

5.Goathland ($10)- Two trials were solid. FUP 2000m? Won fup 1800m here two preps back but weaker race (Etymology was just going fair at the time).

6.Sayed ($97)- Hard to recommend.

7.Shalmaneser ($37)- Didn’t have a lot of room to move last start but plugged away. Extra trip helps but he would need to find a couple of lengths still.

8.Rodrico ($12)- Racing as if he is looking for this trip. Battled on well last two. Won 2000/2200m. Would prefer it wet though?

11.Desert Path ($29)- Tempo against first up. 3 wins 2000m+. Just want to see him again here though.

12.King Viv ($29)- Drops 7.5kg but obviously up in grade. Getting fit now third up from a long break.

Race 3

Overview: Solid race for the two-year-olds without getting carried away depth wise. I’m happy to have something on Sun Patch at $11 and I thought there was plenty of style about his debut win. He is bred to lap up 1200m and the one soft trial coming in meant there was always going to be plenty up the sleeve after his debut run. Microphone and Accession are both likeable and it is hard to line up that Melbourne form re Microphone. It was a strong win last start but he was on the right part of the track. Castelvecchio also has claims but will get back again.

Advice: Happy to have something small on Sun Patch.

Selections: 7-3-2-1

7.Sun Patch ($7)- 3rd QL200 of the day fup over 1000m where looked no hope before ricketing late. Bred for 1400m plus (siblings Manuel and Taking Aim won at least over 1400m). 24 days between runs but only one soft trial coming in and open to a lot of improvement here.

3.Microphone ($3.50)- Won Talindert in solid figures although was on fence which was an advantage (went out quick home slow) and second to subs winner I Am Immortal prior to that. Brings solid credentials here. 1st crack 1200m. Gets a nice run.

2.Accession ($3.50- Jumped well and had to go back last start before swinging out widest and running on well. Probably no star but he is consistent.

1.Castelvecchio ($4.50)- Taltented horse who is 2 from 2. One thing I will say is both races have been really set up for him to close. They should roll at an OK tempo here and should appreciate the big track.

Other runners:

6.Cosmic Force ($22)- Battled on OK first-up but this looks to have more depth. Beat Blazing Miss only other start who is handy without getting carried away.

8.Fiery Red ($26)- Trialled well but just fair first-up. Slightly inf ground but hard to have on what he has showed race day.

Race 4

Overview: Very open race. Super Oasis had to go right back from the wide gate fresh and then she was held up at the top of the straight before finishing second to Sun Patch. I’m hoping that form stacks up in the previous and if it does, she could be the one. Anaheed will find this easier than last start and any rain about certainly improves her chances. On a genuine wet track, she is a bet and clearly top pick. Amercement will get home late but had the race run to suit fresh, while Kiamichi and Enood are capable.

Advice: How did the Super Oasis form stack up re Sun Patch in the previous race? Anaheed is a bet if the rain arrives and it’s a genuine wet track.

Selections:7-3-1-2-4-6

7.Super Oasis ($6.50)- Jumped well had to go back gate and got home very well late after no luck early in straight. Little bit keen in run? Still can settle much closer here and just has to run 1200m to be a chance. How did Sun Patch go in the previous?

3.Anaheed ($6)- Won an avg race at Randwick on a wet track on debut and then break before not beaten far in Blue Diamond lead up (weak form race but good class). Blinkers on. Wants a wet track! 1/1 Rwick.

1.Amercement ($6)- Nice win first-up and 1200m should suit. A couple of knocks, race was run to suit fresh and the form out of the race hasn’t been great (5 subs starters 1 placings). She is also slow out so will give them a start.

2.Kiamichi ($10)- OK in a weak race on debut and then chased home Czarson (4th in Magic Millions) before a break. Trial looked OK to the eye initially but time juust OK and second and third seemed to be under less pressure and are first starters?

4.Enood ($14)- Chased home Blue Diamond winner in soft figures at Sale two back and then copped a check last start and ran on well on day hard to make ground WF. Blinkers on first time.

6.Still Single ($10)- Good in weak form race on debut (copped check around turn) and then beat all bar G3 placegetter latest (although Deep Chill G3 place was in a small field).

Other runners:

5.Giselle Anne ($18)- Liked her last start run as she worked hard and kicked in race that suited backmarkers. They shouldn’t go as hard here. Place?

8.Icebath ($31)- Trialled OK and then ran into a dead end on debut. Having said that, I doubt she was going to be in the finish.

9.Dance Too Hard ($124)- Hard to recommend off the trials.

10.Emeralds ($41)- Finished off solidly two trials although the latest was run in very slow time (2s slower than other 1045m heats and last 600m at least 3L slower).

11.Let It Pour ($16)- Not quick out two trials. First trial just fair, second trial did beat Exhillarates home and both were under some pressure and time was solid enough.

12.Perfect Impression ($31)- Two trials have been sound. Beat Amercement home in 2nd one but she was under a bit more pressure all the same. ½ to Magicool. Should get a trip.

Race 5

Overview: Good race with a few queries. How good is this German import Advance Yulong? How good is the New Zealander Ever Loyal? I’m sticking with You Make Me Smile and he has just gone to a new level this prep. He gets in light, he should get an uncontested lead and he has been running time. Dreamforce had no luck first-up and looks the danger along with Ever Loyal. Watch markets for Advance Yulong.

Advice: You Make Me Smile looks hard to run down but he is probably unders now.

Selections: 9-1-5-2

9.You Make Me Smile ($3.10)- Flying this prep. Running time and doing it both ends. Gets own lead again here and he just might pinch this again with the light weight.

1.Dreamforce ($4)- Complete forgive run fresh. Chopped out when needed to get going and should have gone close with any luck. Second-up record is goo, Randwick record is good, just whether he can give younger horses a big weight swing?

5.Ever Loyal ($6)- Kiwi. 2 runs back from a long spell. Charged to line first-up to just miss 1200m and then showed a good turn of foot to win second-up 1200m. 2nd horse there won a G2 the start prior. Soft/good no issue. 1300m no issue.

2. Advanced Yulong ($7)- German import. Had a jump out. Betting?

Other runners:

3.Kaonic ($13)- two trials OK. Won fup this t/d last prep but much weaker race in avg figures. Confident he has been overrated until now.

4.Snippets Land ($50)- Doesn’t win out of turn and he faces some up and comers here.

6.Frolic ($31)- Blinkers 1st time. Gets back and needs too much to go right. Bumps into some nice horses here too.

8.Salsonic ($63)- Hasn’t won since June 2017- Hard to recommend. Trials OK.

Race 6

Overview: This is all about the great mare Winx and she should continue on her winning ways. She easily accounted for Happy Clapper first-up and the extra trip will only suit her more. Happy Clapper is the likely horse to run second and he is just a beauty isn’t he? His return run was outstanding. Unforgotten has won second-up the last two preps and the Randwick mile will suit her, while Libran can run a cheeky race fresh.

Advice: Enjoy the great mare while you can. Unforgotten at $7 in Winx Out looks overs and I'm not sure she should be paying that much. The gap should be closer between her and Happy Clapper in this market.

Selections: 5-7-1-3.

5.Winx- Just wins again.

7.Unforgotten- Won 2nd up last two preps at 1500m and 1600m (including Chelmsford last prep). Won two from six. Can jump out of ground and place here.

1. Happy Clapper- Brilliant return. Should go close to running second again.

3.Libran- three trials. Did run fourth in this race last year and can often pull out a race fresh. Top three hope.

Other runners:

2.Patrick Erin- Brilliant return, query is now whether he wants even further?

4.Brimham Rocks- Always well back first-up but got home OK. 3RD to Avilius Randwick mile last prep (although first up).

6.Egg Tart- 3rd in George Main second up to Winx in the spring. Good run fresh when just behind the speed behind Winx. Place chance again.

Race 7

Overview: Simply outstanding edition of the Surround and these fillies look pretty good to me! Pohutukawa is the one I want to be with here in a pretty open race. Her run first-up was an absolute cracker in the Light Fingers (she should have won IMO after being held up) and only Winx had better late splits than her on the day. They should roll along at a decent clip here but she is likely to give them a start as she can be slow out. Nakeeta Jane won the Light Fingers first-up and should only be better suited at 1400m. Fiesta next best.

Advice: Pohutukawa each-way but the price is quickly disappearing.

Selections: 12-7-4-5-8

12.Pohutakawa ($4.80)- Outstanding return- Slow out, held up 300-200 and should have won for mine first-up. Late splits only bettered by Winx on the day. Clocked QL400 of day when winning second-up 1400m last prep. The horse to beat.

7.Nakeeta Jane ($5.50)- Went from a maiden win to a narrow G1 defeat in 3 starts in first prep. Returned with a bang to win Light Fingers in strong style. 1400m only a plus! Untapped.

4.Fiesta ($9)- Sat wide but too good in Inglis race fresh in strong late figures. She is still a bit keen and might give them a start from the draw here.1100 to 1400? Very competitive 1400m and 1600m last spring though (second Tea Rose and Flight Stakes).

5.Fundamentalist ($14)- Had her chance up on speed second-up in Vic and this looks to have more depth for mine.

8.Miss Fabulass ($11)- Back on inferior ground first-up but still expected more. Still overracing. She was dominant in Tea Rose over this t/d last spring but needs to lift on first up effort. Gets a long way back?

Other runners:

1.El Dorado Dreaming ($24)- Solid return over 1200m and does have a G1 win next to her name in Sires at t/d. Others on the up as well here though.

2.Seabrook ($24)- Won two from three at Randwick including Champagne Classic over a mile. FUP 1400m off one soft trial?

3.Oohood ($35))- Got back and just battled home LS V her rivals here. Won the Flight Stakes at a mile here last year but needs to lift on fresh run.

6.Greysful Glamour ($64)- Covered ground first-up and hit the line well. Most likely need further now but wait for her later on over a trip.

9.Melt ($48)- Solid Aus debut but yet to win beyond 1200m and others look to have more upside heading to seven furlongs.

10.Madam Rouge ($21)- On pace favours but nice return. Seems to always run a race fresh. Beaten by Pohutakawa at 1400m last spring. Others preferred.

13.Mizzy ($27)- O/came trouble to win maiden well second-up off a great run in Inglis race fresh where she covered ground. 1400m?

14.Zalatte ($16)- Promising filly- 3/3 including defeat over Baller (who was stretched out in distance that day though) and narrow defeat over Welsh Legend off really soft early tempo where the win was better than it looked. May find these a tad sharp on an Oaks campaign but she is untapped. 2 trials solid.

16. Symi ($192)- Looks outclassed.

Race 8

Overview: Cracking mares race this with plenty of chances. I loved the return runs of both Bella Martini and Noire and they’re the two I could speck here. They both have tremendous second-up records as well. Dixie Blossoms won this race last year and she is just a beauty. Siren’s Fury was on inferior ground last start and is a good roughie, while Nettoyer comes into play if the rain arrives (although it looks unlikely). I’m against Alassio at 1400m. Manicure has claims but will others be stronger at the end of seven furlongs?

Advice: Back Bella Martini and Noire to win.

Selections: 4-2-1-8

4.Bella Martini ($6)- Jumped well had to go right back and similar late splits to Noire fresh (different 1200m races). Only defeat second-up was in the Let’s Elope last prep when beaten bob of heads to I Am A Star. Can park much closer here.

2.Noire ($6)- Super first-up run considering lack of tempo up front. Second up record is super (4 starts, 3 wins and a second). Won 1500m Shannon Stakes last prep where she clocked the best late splits of the day. Any rain would help. Hasn’t jumped latest trial and start?

1.Dixie Blossoms ($5)- Isn’t she a ripper? She won this race last year and went oh so close in a Tramway first-up against the boys at this t/d last prep. The good thing about her is you know what you get, she has drawn well, J Mac is on and she is well weighted under set weights + pens.

8.Siren’s Fury ($17)- Really liked this first-up run and she made on inferior ground close to fence. Won the Dark Jewel at Scone second-up last prep then 4th in a Dane Ripper. 1400m tick (4/5wins at this distance). Wet would make her a really good roughie. Collett on (great rider of get back horses).

Other runners:

6.Eckstein ($11)- Hard to knock the win fresh and she overcame a slow tempo and won well. She beat Noire home and only meets horse .5kg worse off. She can be hard to catch but she is well weighted. She did have an unimpeded run from top of straight though where Noire was held up.

7.Alassio ($22))- Good win latest but looks a risk up to 1400m with company up front. Also, a host of others are fitter where she is well into her prep.

9.Manicure ($8)- Looked winner last start and just couldn’t get past Alassio. Now 1400m on what looks a strong speed.  Dyslexic got past her only 1400m run but she rode a hot speed that day. Still expect a few to be stronger late? McEvoy takes over.

10.Mandylion ($60)- Should lead or be right there with Alassio. Faces a task here unless really wet (mudlark).

11.Nettoyer ($30)- QL200 of Breeders Classic first up on inferior ground back near inside. It was a wet track though and she loves them. 4th in this race last year when trapped on inferior ground near fence on soft 5. Ideally needs it wet.

12.Dyslexic ($9)- Nothing between her and Moss Trip only run this t/d. Concern is the set up. Saved from Millie Fox for this. One soft trial at 1400m first-up. The trial was sharp though. Inferior ground only wet run so that’s inconclusive if that eventuates. Poorly weighted- should get 10kg off Dixie Blossoms but gets only 3kg.

Race 9

Overview: There is not a lot between Maximus and Renewal here. Renewal has trialled well but the main concern with him is he has missed the start at his last three starts. He jumped better in a recent trial but he did the same in a trial before first-up last prep. Maximus was good first-up on a wet track and he just has to reproduce on top of the ground. Piracy gets a soft run on speed, while the market should tell us more with Serene Miss. Miss Que just missed first-up and should strip fitter but her second-up record isn’t outstanding.

Advice: Nothing between Maximus and Renewal.

Selections: 8-3-5-2-6

8.Renewal ($5)- It all depends how he jumps- Missed the start all three runs last prep but runs were super. Fup last prep 2ND QL600 of day in inferior ground at Rhill. Jumepd away a touch better at trials but did that at trial before last prep as well. Trial was good but it all depends how he jumps.

3.Maximus ($5)- Wins in another stride fresh and did win second-up last prep at t/d on good track. A couple of knocks- is he a better wet tracker? Lack of tempo in race and there has been 8 subs st out of that race first-up for 0 placings. Time of race was 1.5L slower than Expressway despite going out some 6L quicker first 600m.

5.Piracy ($12)- Bit of a nightmare horse to get into the gates and can missit every now and then but normally jumps well. Should be up on speed here and could well lead. Form disappointing last prep and fresh runs just fair? Maps well. 2.Serene Miss ($10)- Two trials OK. Fup since May. Drifts back and runs on. Has a handy record. Scratched from last week and saved for this. Betting?

2. Serene Miss ($10)- Classy mare returning. Has a nice turn of foot. Trials just OK. Market?

6.Miss Que ($10)- Looked home first-up and just knocked up last 10m. First up record looks better than second up? Maps midfield. Not without her chance (4 subs st out of first race for 1 placing).

Other runners:

1.Epidemic ($14)- Just fair last prep but won first-up 1100m at Rosehill the prep prior in best late figures of the day. Trials have been solid. Just gets back a fair way in race where there doesn’t seem to be a heap of speed?

4.Latin Boy ($43)- Slow out fup but got home OK late on a track I doubt he enjoyed. Back onto firmer would suit. All wins at 900m and 1000m so 1200m a ?

7.Spin ($12)- Blinkers again, winkers off. Performed well in blinkers (off wide runs in the past). Fresh run was OK. Has the ability.

9.Alart ($57)- Honest mare up on speed. Doubt she holds these off.

10.What Could Be ($24)- Hit the line first-up off a slow tempo to record 2nd QL600 of day behind Star Of The Seas. 1200m suits as does Randwick. Enough speed?

11.Signore Fox ($14)- Trial was solid and he is improving. Won by a big space in good late figures off slow tempo at provincial maiden first-up last prep. Beat home Renewal by 3L last prep although that horse gets a 6kg swing in the weights.

12.Spanish Dream ($19)- Honest mare who rolls forward here.Beat little before a break but did it in style. Wants it dry, gets in light.

13.Budawang ($172)- Prefer others.

 



Brad Davidson - Sky Racing


FACEBOOK

FEEDBACK

TIPS

TWITTER

LISTEN

BSB Supporters