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Sky Racing Brad Davidson Randwick preview tips March 23

 Mar 22 2019

Rosehill March 23

Best value

Race 2 no,1 Gem Song $7 (rated $5.50)

Betting strategy-

Race 2 no.1 Gem Song 10 units at $8.50 win

Race 2 no.12 Prophet’s Thumb 5 units at $11 to win

Race 4 no.8 Chapada 7 units a place at $7

Race 7 no.9 Tenley 5 unit win at $6

Race 9 no.1 I’m A Princess 5 unit win at $9

Race 9 no.9 Domed 5 unit win at $10

Race 6 no.11 Shillelagh 5 unit win at $12

10 unit quaddie (starts r6, 6.9%): 1st leg: 11,2,12,10. 2nd leg: 9,2,5. 3rd leg: 8,6,4. 4th leg: 1,9,8,3.

 

Results for betting strategies for 2019 racing season (since Aug 1) so far: 691 units profit (15%POT, 4700 unit outlay).

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

Track- Heavy 8 on Thursday. Expecting to be in soft range Saturday if forecast is right.

Rail-3m

History rail 3m

18/02/2017       Rosehill 3m        S6          On pace slight adv hard to make ground really wide                                                      

18/03/2017       Rosehill 3m        H10       Pretty good- inside OK,ON PACE sl adv                                                 

20/05/2017       Rose      3m        S5          Fair- Slight adv 2-3 off but marginal. Could run on                                            

1/07/2017         Rosehill 3m        s6          Very fair track                                            

19/05/2018       Rose      3m        G4         Fair track this.                                           

30/06/2018       Rose      3m        S7          Wide an advantyager again and if anything run on suited here                                              

11/08/2018       Rosehill 3m        G4         Getting a few off the fence here. On pace slight advantage                                                    

22/09/2018       Rosehill 3m        G4         Pretty fair track this. No disadv to be off pace and wide but could win on pace fence first six races at least                                                      

10/11/2018       Rhill      3            G4         Pretty fair re lanes. On pace slught adv as always good track racing                                          

1/12/2018         Rose      3m        G4         Fence inferior here. 3-6 the place to be. Seemed ok to sit 3wnc even without cover. Too many ran well doing so                                                  

2/02/2019         Rose      3m        S7          Pretty fair track re lanes and could run on although on pace slight adv                       

Assessment- Bit of a mixed bag. I expect them to get wider early and then fence to be OK late. Interestingly, all Golden Slippers winners since 2003 minus Vancouver have found the fence at some stage during the run.

Wind- Expected to be light.

 

Race 1

Tricky race to kick off the day. Resin has been supported in early markets and she was really good first-up and is a different horse on wet ground. The query is the wide gate and where she actually gets to on the map. The Kiwi, Avantage is a beauty and her recent trials have been OK without raving about. She gets the blinkers for the first time here and go back through her form and she has only lost the one race and that was to a horse that is unbeaten in four starts. Serene Miss has a great second-up record and her late splits were good fresh (although the form out of the race has been ordinary). She Knows looks best of the rest.

Advice: Serene Miss looks overs in my book. You could take a quinella with 2,3,6 otherwise. Tricky race. Play small.

Selections: 2-6-3-1

2.Resin ($4)- Good return in strong rating race fresh. Had the gun run there but clearly a better horse on wet ground as proven last prep. 2/2 second up and progressive. Awk draw but JMac rides.

6.Serene Miss ($8)- sound return off slow tempo where got home 3rd ql400 of day. Likes soft, this is harder than first-up naturally. 4 subs starters out of first up race for 0 placings. Great 2nd up record.

3.Avantage ($4.50)- Kiwi, two trials to get ready for this. Blinkers 1st time. G1 winner in NZ over Melt who hasn’t really lived up to it in Aus so far. Looks a fighter. Off the canvas to win G3 LS. Won Karaka Million last year. Unbeaten on soft ground in 3 runs. Can’t say no.

1.She Knows ($8)- Just fair first two runs this prep then got home well latest when not on best ground. First crack at 1200m now.     

Other runners:

4.Magic Alibi ($20)- Home track and comes here fresh after third in MM mares race. Fresh form is solid but strikes a tough race here. Wet OK.

5.Sweet Scandal ($9)- Did a bit of work LS but had chance all the same. Had a few runs this prep and others have more upside? Soft form OK, onlhy win soft came in a 5 horse maiden though.

7.Perizada ($59)- Bit plain first-up. Last win came second up at 1100m this track last year. 2nd up record solid and gets through wet but doubt she Is going well enough.

8.Star Reflection ($20)- Nice and fresh last start and got home nicely. Likes the sting out as well and form prior consistent enough to be a place hope. Collett off to ride Serene Miss?

9.In Good Time ($58)-Just battling of late.

10.Miss Que ($29)-Knocked up late fresh and then second-up held up a touch before going close in average form race. That looks the B grade form. Won on heavy but that was maiden against 7 rivals.

12.Into The Abyss ($21)- Two trials have been pleasing and she has been 1 1/2L off Pohutukawa and 1L off Seabrook soft tracks. Poorly weighted and is she up to these?

Race 2

Overview: I’ve been raving about Classique Legend since his debut win but quite clearly the bookies like him even more than me. Gee, I just think he is quite skinny here at $1.80? He has all the attributes of a really nice horse (he has an amazing stride) but he is going from a maiden to a weak benchmark 70 and now to a deep Listed race. This game is all about prices and I have to be against him from a price perspective. Gem Song has trialled well leading in off a setback, Prophet’s Thumb is airborne. Military Zone trialled well and is also capable but I would prefer a drier track for him.

Advice: Classique Legend is too short for mine. Gem Song and Prophet’s Thumb both look overs. Can back them both to win.

Selections: 1-12-14-13

1.Gem Song ($5.50)- Won the Eskimo Prince first-up on inferior ground but the figures out of the race were average and there has been 5 subs st for 0 placings from the race. Had a setback since so freshened for this. Trialled well. Drifts back but runs on.

12.Prophet’s Thumb ($7)- Lovely filly- Really good from back in Spark Of Life where she ran on on inferior ground, then too good LS when clocking some sizzling sectionals to score. Seems to get through wet ground. 1200 at this level maybe a ? Hard to knock though.

14.Classique Legend ($2.50)- Looks a proper horse I must admit. Smashed the clock late on debut and then put a gap in his older rivals second-up although I must admit the figures didn’t back it up that day (just .2s quicker than Kylease same day) and we’ve seen some big margin wins on the Kenso track in recent months so we have to be careful. I think he has such a bright future, he has a lovely action and he hasn’t been near fit for mine at both runs so far. Having said that, he is rising from a maiden to a B70 to a Listed race in three starts, has a wide gate and the horse he beat second-up was beaten 3L (caught in inferior ground though) on Wednesday. Throw all this in and the bookies want us to take $1.80? This is a good race and while I think he Is a very good horse in the making, we should be getting a better price.

13.Wagner ($17)- Won first-up against older horses after covering ground in OK figures. Wet form OK but this is a new level.

Other runners:

5.Jonker ($15)- Solid return first-up where just got a bit tired late behind Prophet’s Thumb who he gets a 2kg swing on. Mixed form on wet- did finished 3rd on heavy in Run To The Rose and then well held other two wet runs but in good company.

6.Wild Planet ($17)-Form around Ranier and Yulong January last prep. Beaten home by Yulong January in Gothic Stakes but WP was three wide no cover and overracing. Thought the trial was just fair?

8.Legend Of Condor ($35)- Well held fresh. Does get through the ground and he won a weak form race at Flemington on heavy last prep. All 2nd to Diplomatico in a Brian Crowley which again hasn’t turned out to be a great form race.

9.Krone ($23)- Blinkers 1st time- Not far away in Listed company first-up. Form around Mystic Journey and Amprhitite last prep. Untried wet ground.

11.Poised To Strike ($43)- Beat the likes of Hawkshot first-up in December. Form since just OK  including where Yulong January went past him LS. Won twice S5.

 

 

Race 3

Overview: I loved the run of Shraaoh last start and he overcame a slow tempo to almost score. He won on a heavy track at Flemington last prep and he has been the one the punters have circled early here. The $3.50 is short enough now in a race with a few chances but he does look the horse to beat. I liked the return of Midterm and he was good in a Metropolitan last campaign. His wet form is a bit mixed. Big Duke, Jaameh, One Foot In Heaven and Etymology are all chances, while Vin De Dance wants a drying track as he didn’t get through the heavy ground all that well at his last start in New Zealand.

Advice: Shraaoh looks hard to beat but the value has gone now. He might get back out. Big Duke should go close if rain continues.

Selections: 10-1-2-3

10.Shroaah ($3.30)- Outstanding run against the tempo LS. Wanted to lay in late. Won twice over 2800m and did win heavy track Flem last prep although also failed on soft overseas.  Rating from LS race just fair the ? but gets in light.

1.Big Duke ($9.50)- Won this race two years ago with 54kg. Now has 58kg. Good first-up in race entitled to run on in with speed up front. Tempo and firm track against LS. Should be more tempo here with Big Blue rolling and wet track helps, as does 2400m.

2.Jaameh ($14)- Held ground to the line LS and two runs in fair over unsuitable trips. Step up to 2400m big plus (5 of 7 wins have come at 2500m plus), wet form is mixed? 58kg is a leveller.

3.One Foot In Heaven ($14)- Good fresh in weakish race. OK second-up. 4 wins at 2400m and gets preferred soft surface. Had a few chances all the same.

Other runners:

4.Vin De Dance ($16)- Won an average form Listed race two back (11 subs starters 3 placings) where he beat Zacada home. Struggled on the wet latest. Won a NZ Derby at 2400m.

5.Zacada ($28)- Went oh so close in a Sydney Cup last year. Likes wet ground and two runs back have been solid. Won a G2 in NZ on soft ground at 2400m. Not hopeless.

6.Big Blue ($28)- Two trials. Latest over hurdles at 2400m. Won the St Leger at 2600m on a wet track last prep. FUP 2400m never easy! Should lead.

7.Casterton ($50)- WNC and lame LS. Stuck on OK prior. Beaten by Jaameh last prep. Has Listed wins next to name soft track overseas.

8.Etymology ($9.50)- Trialled well since disappointing in Tas where pulled up with a respiratory noise. Form prior was strong in weaker company. Soft track should be OK.

9.Midterm ($8)- QL200 of race first-up 2000m. Great in the Metrop off slow tempo last prep. Yet to win at 2400m and soft track stats a bit mixed? Blinkers 1st time, does he overrace?

11.Rodrico ($28)- Gets through the ground and stuck on OK in Sky High. This looks to have more depth.

12.Doukhan ($114)- Entitled to work home first-up. Extra trip and wet track help but does he want even further?

 

Race 4

Overview: There are two schools of thought to The Autumn Sun. One is his Randwick Guineas win was a lot better to the eye than on the clock and that’s fair considering they went hard and the last 600m of the race was very slow. The other school of thought is that he is just a winner this horse and that the race split in two and he did a wonderful job to chase them down considering he has been racing like a horse looking for 2000m already. He gets his chance to prove that now. A deserving short priced fav but am I’ll watch at $1.50. Madison County’s last 200m was as strong as The Autumn Sun’s last start and he looks the logical danger. The $3.40-$3.60 about Dealmaker the place looks OK and he has been finding the line well in some strong races down south. He should appreciate the blinkers coming off and he handles wet tracks. Chapada pulled up with cardiac arrythmia last start and is the other who can jump out of the ground here.

Advice: Could entertain place plays on Chapada and Dealmaker or include them in multiples. Otherwise, sit back and enjoy The Autumn Sun (too short to back for mine). Let’s hope he explodes at 2000m.

Selections: 1-2-8-9

1.The Autumn Sun ($1.60)- Two schools of thought here- 1- His Randwick Guineas win was a lot better to the eye than on the clock and that’s fair considering they went hard and the last 600m of the race was very slow. The other school of thought is that he is just a winner this horse and that the race split in two and he did a wonderful job to chase them down considering he has been racing like a horse looking for 2000m already. He gets his chance to prove that now. A deserving short priced fav but am I diving in at $1.50. I’ll watch.

2.Madison County ($11)- Last 200m was just as good at The Autumn Sun’s last start and he gets up to 2000m for the first time now. Already a G1 winner in NZ.

8.Chapada ($28)- 2nd in Norman Robertson at 2000m behind Thinkin’ Big last prep and then should have finished closer in strongly run Derby. Did enough fresh and then cardiac arrythmia latest. Can bounce back here.

9.Dealmaker ($23)- Chased home Hawkshot and then good in Aust Guineas which has since produced All Star Mile winner. Almost a G2 winner on heavy and blinkers off is a good move and he can just be that bit keen. Good place chance.

Other runners:

3.Crown Prosecutor ($35)- No match for Madison County three back, then fair in Waikato Guineas and then won the NZ Derby at $105. Want to see him reproduce,

4.Surely Sacred ($17)- Showed a good turn of foot to win Avondale Guineas (form out of race avg) and then didn’t run out 2400m. Back to 2000m suits but even then he had enough late in Avondale Guineas.

5.Aramayo ($28)- Extra trip helps and G1 placed on S7 at 2000m. Doubt he can turn the tables on TAS from Randwick Guineas though.

6.Vernanme ($57)- Finished behind the likes of Surely Sacred and In A Twinkling in NZ of late and beaten 5.5L in NZ Derby.

7.Arrogant ($35)- Just missed Waikato Guineas in a race which produced the NZ Derby winner. Didn’t run out the 2400m. Back to 2000m helps.

10.Purple Sector ($90)- Forgive LS, slow out copped a severe check at 1000m and never travelled late. Building to something prior. 2000m suits.

11.Costello ($47)- On the right part of the track but tough win LS (2nd and 3rd both failed since though). 2000m a natural progression and on track for a Derby but might find a few of these a bit classy.

12.Yulong Tavion ($380)- Just fair last start and needs to lift.

13.Ablestock ($600)- Yet to win a mdn and prefer others.

 

Race 5

Overview: This is the second last chance you’ll have to soak it all in and enjoy the world’s best racehorse. Don’t take it for granted and wherever you all, stand up and applaud the great mare. Let those hairs stand up on the back of your neck, shed a tear if you have to. Enjoy this because it will be gone very soon and we will always be looking back at the days when we had the great Black Caviar and Winx. Both are once in a century horses yet we’ve had two of them in the past decade. Remarkable. Land Of Plenty looks second pick to me just ahead of Dreamforce and Ringerdingding. I tried to look for a value play in the Winx Out market but feel the market has it pretty spot on.

Advice: I couldn’t find a great deal of value in the Winx Out market. Enjoy the great mare! #GoWinx.

Selections: 4. Winx wins!

Winx out: 1-2-8-3

*****PLEASE NOTE PRICES ARE WINX OUT MARKET ONLY*****

1.Land Of Plenty ($3.80)- Last 3 runs have been super from wide draws. WNC when second in the Orr Stakes. Beat Hartnell to win a Toorak last prep. Has form around Osborne Bulls too. Blinkers on, inside draw. Could settle a touch closer?

2.Dreamforce ($4.20)- Just keeps on improving every prep this bloke- he is a beauty. No luck first-up and then smashed them LS. Didn’t beat much but the rating was good and he gets through soft OK. Won at 1500m and twice at mile.

8.Ringerdingding ($5.50)- Ql200 of race in Futurity and then found the lune again in Aust Guineas which has produced All Star Mile winner. Won Mdn S7 but other two soft runs just fair.Gets back?

3.So Si Bon ($9)- Made good ground from back last two starts but entitled to run on and Land Of Plenty sat WNC in Orr and still beat him home. Dreamforce has had the better of him at their clash in the Chatham as well. Won 2 from 35.

Other runners:

5.Prompt Response ($12)- Nice enough first-up effort for the stable against the boys. Has won a G2 at 1500m in the past and 2nd up record isn’t as bad as it looks on paper (beaten .4L Millie Fox one prep and finished 4th for example).

7.Teleplay ($30)- We can take a line through Mannerism where Land Of Plenty’s overall time on same day over same distance was 6L better than Teleplay’s (quicker early but also quicker L600).

9.Brutal ($10)- Solid late in Canterbury Stakes. OK prior when WNC first-up. Hasn’t ticked 1500m box or wet track box.

Race 6

Overview: Happy to be with Shillelagh here providing the track is on the improve and isn’t too wet. She did beat home Avilius in the Australian Cup and clocked the quickest last 200m split in the Peter Young prior. Go back to the Mackinnon in the spring and she was flattened up the straight and should have finished much closer. Avilius had an eye injury last start and he can bounce back here. I would have preferred it dry for him though. Unforgotten has chased home Winx at both runs this prep and the wet track is also an unknown for her. She pulled up with cardiac arrythmia at her only run on a soft track. Libran has a terrific second-up record and has place claims, while Danzdanzdance comes right into play if it’s a genuine wet track.

Advice: I could speck Shillelagh here if the track is on the better side of soft by this stage of the day. Libran looks a good roughie to throw in exotics/quaddies.

Selections: 11-2-12-7

11.Shillelagh ($8.50)- QL200 in Peter Young and then beat home Avilius in Aust Cup. Seems to get through wet OK but keener on drier track. No luck in Mackinnon last prep at 2000m. Hard to knock.

2.Avilius ($3.60)- Dominant in lead ups and then didn’t run out 2000m in Aust Cup. He did have an ulcer in eye. Wet form is a bit mixed? Can bounce back but last 100m may be query in testing track.

12.Unforgotten ($7)- Chased home Winx both runs this prep and getting to 2000m should suit now. Failed only run soft but pulled up with cardiac arrythmia. Trials OK soft?

10.Danzdanzdanz ($11)- Just missed in NZ Stakes last start but top two gapped rest. Track is the key and she loves wet ground. The wetter the better!

Other runners:

1.Almandin ($44)- EIPH on scope LS so had an excuse. Happy to wait although has won a Tancred here at 2400m.

3.Ace High ($33)- Going OK but would prefer him on firmer footing.

4.The Taj Mahal ($25)- OK last start but would have to improve to turn the tables on a few of these. Soft seems OK.

5.He’s Eminent ($16)- Beat Avilius back in 2017. Recent form just fair. Untried anything worse than good.

6.Night’s Watch ($25)- Blocked for a run at top of straight last start and only battled from there. Was good last prep but jury’s out this prep?

8.Sikandarabad ($20)- He has a really good prep this horse. Went back wide gate in Aus Cup but stuck to task. Can park closer here and soft stats OK.

9.Auvray ($90)- Prefer him on dry tracks.

13.Egg Tart ($14)- Good first-up, not as good second-up but has been against the great mare. Now 2000m on her preferred wet track. I just prefer her first-up and she is hard to catch.

14.Savvy Coup ($400)- Well beaten both runs this prep. Hard to have.

15.Nettoyer ($50)- Looked a moral if they went to the Epona but I’m not sure she is up to these.

 

Race 7

Overview: A very even edition of the Golden Slipper but I keep coming back to Tenley especially now the track shouldn’t be as bad as we all thought it was going to be. She is three from three and her win in the Reisling was very good. Her last 200m split was a length quicker than Yes Yes Yes and providing she is not looking for further now, she should be the strongest late here, draws well and gets the services of James McDonald. I have a lot of time for Microphone and he looks the main danger from the good draw. He accounted for Cosmic Force last start and bolted in prior. Lyre could be the forgotten horse and she is just a winner. I liked her tickover trial since her Blue Diamond success. Exhilarates is in a similar boat and she is getting out to a juicy price now at $21. Bivouac is far from hopeless if he gets a run and I could speck him a place if he does. Cosmic Force is a terrific chance but I feel at $4.40 he is being priced as if we are going to get another proper heavy track. If the forecast is right, that won’t eventuate and therefore I think he is a false favourite particularly on a soft 7 or better.

Advice- Tenley each-way.

Selections: 9-2-5-7-15

9.Tenley ($5.40)- Should be fav. 3 from 3 and she looks smart. Sl Quicker time than Yes Yes Yes when winning Reisling and her last 200m split was some length quicker than Yes Yes Yes. She looked to only be warming up. Looks strong at end of 1200m. Trialled ok soft 6 before 1st start but unknown otherwise.

2.Microphone ($6.50)- Only defeat has come to I Am Immortal who won BD Prelude following start. Beat subs dominant winner Cosmic Force last start when winning Skyline (small field though?). Won Flemington on right ground prior in good fashion- 10 subs st behind him there for just two placings though. LS win was .4s quicker than Anaheed and much quicker last 600m as well. Mum won on soft and placed on heavy. 1st crack wet track.

5.Cosmic Force ($6.50)- Hard to have on previous form but big winner Saturday on H10 and chance if conditions are same. .3s quicker Kiamichi and all L600 off slower early tempo too but I still think his win is being exaggerated a touch and that he didn’t beat much? Beaten H8 earlier in career by Bivouac. *** Will come right into play if we get more showers****

7.Lyre ($11)- Won a trial on soft 7 at Randwick over 1050m. Just a winner this horse. Keeps on raising the bar. Won the Blue Diamond and the BD lead up.

15.Exhillirarates ($18)- MM form. Entitled to run on slower than MM maiden and Country Cup. Not bad first-up but no match Tenley. Soft trial OK. By Snitzel. Mum SAMAREADY 5/6 soft ground.

Other runners:

1.Yes Yes Yes ($11)- Only one defeat to Brooklyn Hustle-Good winner first-up in Todman. Slightly slower time but better for run this way and had to go right back from gate. Won on soft 5 and trialled much better than Dubious on soft 7. 2 siblings both wet track winners.

3.Time To Reign ($22)- Disapp LS but win prior over GS then fav Tassort was enormous. Only big run this prep though. Wants it wet. Beaten by Bivouac on heavu track first-up but wide and overraced.

4.Free Of Debt ($28)- Won at Flem and then 3rd Blue Diamond when looked winner and caught late.

6.Dubious ($37)- 2nd MM and then third to Yes Yes Yes in Todman been a great race for Slipper. Won trial soft 7 and by NASD?

8.Lankan Star ($45)- 2nd Blue Diamond. Beaten 10L Magic Night heavy track. Drying track means she is not hopeless.

10.Pin Sec ($32)- Visually very impressive but was only similar time to 1200m MDN on the day. Has won a trial on soft 7 and mum by Commands.

11.Anaheed ($37)- WNC and battled on well Reisling. Win prior .4s slower Microphone same day, Her win in the Victory Vein on a heavy track was very good although time just fair and second was a 1st starter who hasn’t raced against since and 3rd was beaten in a maiden at Cant following start. Needs it wet. Siblings and won won wet ground.

12.Kiamichi ($50)- Good win latest but slower than Cosmic Force by 2L on day. Very wet track would be best chance. Beaten 2.5L start prior in Sweet Embrace to Anaheed.

13.Catch Me ($60)-Battled last couple.

14.Vincere Volare ($75)-2/2 Doomben nice to see her measure up with G2 placing since. Wet track? Never seen one. Great for Qld win another Slipper.

16.Loving Gaby ($17)- Strong win in Chairman’s from back and then never really got a crack at them in Blue Diamond and was strong late. Loved the way she trialled at Randwick recently on soft 7. Only look at wet track.

 

Race 8

Overview: Outstanding edition of The Galaxy. I think the market has it pretty right although Redzel could be a bit longer in the market? He meets the likes of Virdine 7.5kg worse off at the weights here and the weight scale is not ideal. Viridine just might have turned the corner as a gelding and I loved his fresh run. He gets that weight swing on Redzel and he did finish third in this race last year. Graff brings great form lines from Victoria in Group 1 company down there and he gets in nice and light and handles soft ground. What do we do with Nature Strip. At his best, he is a very good sprinter but he was pretty ordinary last start and there is a bit of pressure here. It’s hard to knock Ball Of Muscle and he did beat Redzel first-up and he gets a 3.5kg swing in the weights for doing so.

Advice: Tough race! No firm opinion here.

Selections: 8-6-1-4.

8.Viridine ($6)- Hard horse to catch but I reckon he was more settled in his first run as a gelding. He clocked the best late splits of the day and meets Redzel 7.5kg better at the weights for a .3L margin. He was beaten 2.6L behind Redzel in the Challenge last year and then ran third in the Galaxy, this year he was beaten .3L in the Challenge.

6.Graff ($6)- Been thereabouts but had chance all the same his past two starts at G1 company, Won San Domenico and other wet run 3wnc and looked winner before being caught late by Lean Mean Machine.

1.Redzel ($5.50)- Just missed in a photo first-up. The query is now the 59.5kg and he meets Viridine a massive 7.5kg worse off and even Ball Of Muscle 3.5kg worse off for being beaten by that horse. Ran second in this race a few years ago. The Snowdens have openly said the main aim is the TJ and admit the weights aren’t ideal.

4.Nature Strip ($6)- Disappointing last start but dominant prior. Should find the front but he has company here and I wonder whether he will be gasping for air late? Terrific horse, won 9/14. Soft track is good and his recent trial was strong as expected.

Other runners:

3.Pierata ($8)- I thought it was a hidden run first-up and he went back and hit the line well and best late splits of the race. We saw he loved a wet track in Sydney Stakes last year. I love him as a horse but is 1100m too short? He has never won below 1200m and that’s the knock.

5.Jungle Edge ($45) Iron horse but gee he faces some up and comers here.

7.Kaepernick ($45)- Gets a 7.5kg swing on Redzel but I prefer him on top of the ground and in something easier.

9.I Am Excited ($67)- OK first-up but this is much, much harder. Prefer others.

10.Encryption ($16)- Graff beat Encryption home 2L last start in Newmarket. Run in Oakleigh Plate was good but this looks to have more depth. Trialled S5 but never seen anything worse.

11.Easy Eddie ($45)- He has been a beauty and I love the progression he has made in recent preps. Why not have a throw at the stumps? It is a genuine throw at the stumps though and he looks outclassed.

12.Tribal Wisdom ($50)- Closed off nicely in a recent 800m jump out in Vic and he does have a win over Osborne Bulls at his last start back in April last year. This would be some training performance though.

13.Baller ($120)- No luck last start but this is a whole new level.

 

Race 9

Overview: Pretty open race as the market suggests. Domed was just fair in the Canberra Cup but she is a different horse on wet ground and she did finish second in this race last year. I’m A Princess did enough when back in trip last start and her form lines around Avilius earlier this prep read well for this. She has won on a soft 5. All Too Soon was too bad to be true last start and the softer track will help her. She has won twice at 1800m. Semari has won her past two starts in good fashion although she did get a soft lead at Moonee Valley last start. Luskintyre Lass will be up on speed and just has to run out the trip to go close, while there are other chances too! Risking Jungle Fish at the price off the slow figures last start.

Advice: Could speck I’m A Princess and Domed (if we get more rain).

Selections: 1-9-8-3

1.I’m A Princess ($7)- OK behind Avilius and Sikandarabad and then back in trip when L200 got warm late over 1600m. Won on soft 5 but hasn’t raced on anything worse. Well weighted under conditions. Bowman rides. Could make case as this is a weak race.

9.Domed ($7)- Bit stiff two back in weak race and then got back and worked home latest OK at Canberra without raving about. Key is wet track. Won soft 7 and did finish second in this race last year ona a Soft 7.

8.Semari ($6)- 2nd QL200 of the day two back and was very strong winner there where time was 1.8s quicker than MDN on same day. Soft lead at Moonee Valley and held off Tahnee Tiara who has finished fourth in B82 since at Morph since. Won S7.

3.All Too Soon ($6.50)- Stuck to task first-up and didn’t appreciate firmer track LS. Wet track suits and she has won twice at 1800m but she is no world beater.

Other runners:

2.Karavali ($14)- Got home OK weak rating race LS and looks on track for 1900m now. Beaten 8L 3rd up this race last year.Does like wet and has won 2000m though. Multiples perhaps.

5.Tuesday Joy ($12)- Hasn’t lived up to the hype this prep. Karavali got past her late LS. Inconclusive whether she prefers wet or dry for mine.

6.Harmattan ($11)- Wide with cover last start and she was OK. Won her maiden on a soft 6. 1/1 at track.Wins at 1200-1500m.

7.Smart As You Think ($14)- Recent form nothing to crow about but does like wet ground and did win soft track over All Too Soon at Rosehill last prep over a mile (3kg swing to ATS from that day). Only won the 2 from 34?

12.Jungle Fish ($10)- Won three straight but times just fair. Last start basically identical time to 1600m MDN and her race was run 6L quicker to 600m. Trainer has a knack of winning this rafe though.

13.Marcelinna ($43)- Got home OK latest but entitled to run on as well and this is harder. G2 placegetter soft track in NZ but needs to lift on recent form.

14.Red Chandelier ($86)- Deserved win LS but race run 7L slower than 1400 b70 on same day. Poorly weighted and would need to lift.

15.Happy Every Day ($173)- Hard to recommend.



Brad Davidson - Sky Racing


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