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Sky Racing Brad Davidson Randwick May 25

 May 24 2019

Randwick May 23

Betting strategy

****I’ve decided to offer the two different strategies going forward. The normal strategy will be the same one I’ve been doing since August, the long game strategy will be the 100 unit betting bank idea. I understand that both strategies will suit different styles of punters, so please pick the one that suits you and gamble responsibly.

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less. A few more bets on most occasions will be included here to spread the risk across a race day.

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

Normal strategy (135 unit spend)

Race 1 no.5 Reloaded 20 unit win at $1.90

Race 2 no.3 Lifesaver 5 unit win at $9.50 and 5 unit place at $2.80

Race 3 no.2 Nobu 20 unit win at $2.60

Race 3 no.5 Baeed 5 unit place at $5

Race 4 no.14 Belfast Bella 10 unit place at $2.30

Race 7 no.13 Organza 15 unit win at $7.50 and 15 unit place at $2.50

Race 8 no.14 Dissolute 1 unit win and 4 unit place tote

Race 9 no.22 November Man 15 unit win at $7

15 unit Quaddie (starts r6, 13.8 per cent)- 1st leg: 1,15,4,3. 2nd leg: 13,11,8. 3rd leg: 4,15,14. 4th leg: 22,16,17.

5 unit multi ($6.61)- Race 1 no.3 Discharged to place ($1.45) into Race 4 no.4 Wolfe to win $1.90 into Race 9 no.22 November Man to place ($2.40)

Betting results since started on April 20: +181.6 units, 21%POT, 885 unit outlay)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy (3.55 units)

Race 1 no.5 Reloaded 0.5 unit win at $1.90

Race 2 no.3 Lifesaver 0.25 unit win at $10 and 0.25 unit place at $2.90

Race 3 no.2 Nobu 0.5 unit win at $2.60

Race 4 no.14 Belfast Bella 0.25 unit place at $2.30

Race 7 no.13 Organza 0.5 unit win at $7.50 and 0.5 unit place at $2.50

Race 8 no.14 Dissolute 0.1 unit win and 0.2 unit place both on tote

Race 9 no.22 November Man 0.5 unit win at $7

 Betting results since started on April 20: 7.87 unit profit, (28%POT, 28.25 units outlayed)

 Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

 Think! About your choices.

 

 Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6          F7              F8          F9

25/02/2017       Rand     TRUE     S6          On pace and on fence def adv                                            

1/04/2017         Rand     TRUE     h8         Rail in run DYNAMITE (B4 TURN) fence/pace straight                                                  

27/05/2017       Rand     TRUE     s6          Perfect track                                             

5/08/2017         Rand     TRUE     S6          Could run on OK but 2 horse width off + further best groun                                                  

6/01/2017         Rand     TRUE     G4         Swoopers advantage 3-4 wide Hard to lead and win or be on pace near fence                                                 

17/02/2018       Rand     TRUE     G4         Fair track early- wider the better later on                                                    

7/04/2019         Rand     TRUE     G3         Hard to make ground a lot of day but no real pattern in terms of lanes                                        

26/05/2018       Rand     TRUE     G4         3 wide off and beyond best ground                                              

15/09/2018       Rand     True      G4         Pretty fair track                                        

13/10/2018       Rand     True      H9         Adv to be on pace here most of the day. Lanes were fine- best groudn outside fence but only a few horses went there late                                               

15/12/2018       Rand     True      S6-7      Fence not the place to be- 2-5 lanes and then wider later                                                 

26/01/2019       Rand     True      G3         Pretty fair track- some races felt like fence not best but three winners day on fence. No dis to be on speed prob touch on pace but could still run on           

9/03/2019         Randwick           True      G4         Pretty fair track. Out wide swooping slight advantage but could win closer in. Rained mid meeting                                                                       

6/04/2019         Rand     True      s7          Pretty fair although I don't think hard fence was great. Could make ground                                         

Assessment: Seem to be able to run on and get off fence here when dry as a guide.

 

Race 1

Overview: Hard to go past Reloaded and he looks a very promising horse. The query was whether the 1200m was going to be a tad sharp first-up but class got him home and his trial since has been outstanding. The only issue is gate one and whether he can get out. Discharged should lead and prove hard to catch and he clocked good time from the front last start (3L quicker than the fillies 2YO maiden on the day). Prince Fawaz is still a maiden but will be running on late. He probably should have won last start but it wasn’t a strong race.

Advice: Reloaded to win. Can take quinella 5,3 as well if you like.

Confidence rating on race: 9/10.

Selections: 5-3-7-6

5.Reloaded ($1.75)-Super win on deut, similar time as Libertini. Bred to run a trip. Lovely trial since 2nd Rosehill 900m. Should eat up 1400m. Only knock is gate 1 but horse to beat. Mum won a VRC Oaks.

3.Discharged ($4.50)-3WNC debut when not far off Reloaded and then led and strong late to score 1200m. 3l quickert Calif Zimbol on day quicker early and late. Mum won 1400m so looks suited.

7.Prince Fawaz ($11)- Big run from the back LS and should have won. Saying that set up for him and entitled to get home way race was run. .4s slower Regent Street mdn despite fact run 4L quicker early.

6.Sea Of Life ($20)- Good run behind subs Sat city winner first-up where wnc and stuck on. Won a trial at Rhill since without blinkers on but they go on race day.

Other runners:

1.Strasbourg- Scr.Blinkers OFF AGAIN, Winkers FIRST TIME. Held up on turn but finished off well in Champagne. Times slower than two Class 6 on days and went out hard and home a bit slower so entitled to finish off. 1400m form OK prior in prep.

2.Creator- Scr. Tickover trial 2nd Rhill since winning 1300m Hawkesbury. Drifts back and finds the line. Quicker winning time G3 on day but that was race shape. Set up for him there. Don’t like the map and doubt that’s the form. 1 place 3 subs st that race.

4.Disruptor- Scr.WNC behind Reloaded and then again wide and ran on Champagne. 1400m looks OK. Does he run Brisbane?

8.Twentyfour Carat- Scr.Here or Bris? Good first-up with traffic problems. Then WNC and overraced with blinkers as result second up. Meets Reloaded 4.5kg better off from two starts back and only 1.25L off. Should love 1400m.

9.Floreat Pica ($19)- OK as fav first-up and then jumped well, had to go right back from gate and then closed off well Sires in Adelaide. .8s slower B86 on day. Wrong form?

10.Bacchus ($53)- Blew start three back and was good late, 2 back loomed/peaked, ran on late again LS. Meets some quality horses here.

11.Lucky Imperator ($160)- Blinkers again. Hard to have here.

12.Industrial- Scr. Blinkers off, winkers 1st time. Blinkers on LS and backfired as too keen in the run. Ran on OK fup without them although still 5.5L off Reloaded.

13.Doin’ Shots ($640)- Prefer others.

Race 2

Overview: Competitive Highway. I want to lean the way of the Matt Dunn pair in Vernazza and Lifesaver. Vernazza clocked some good closing splits first-up from a long break at Murwillumbah and he was well backed there. Lifesaver has trialled well coming in and the $8.50 appeals. He has good Highway form last prep for this and did win an 1100m Highway first-up last prep. Major Danger was a strong first-up winner at Hawkesbury in Highway grade and just comes back 100m here, while Madame Pauline is unbeaten but is first-up since last 2017. She has had three nice trials ahead of her return.

Advice: Lifesaver the value at $8.50.

Confidence rating on race: 5/10.

Selections: 3-9-5-13

3.Lifesaver ($7.50)- Showed speed in a recent Murwillumbah trial and not asked for anything late. Won an 1100m Hway first up last prep. R/up t/d Cl3 Highway run in good figures last Sep, draws well.

9.Vernazza ($6)- Too good at Murwillumbah first up. Won in good figures too (.6s quicker 2yo race despite race run 3L slower to 600m. Zipped home good figures). 1100 back to 1000m. Thrown in listed race last prep.

5.Major Danger ($5)- Led and won 1100m Hway at Hawkesbury first up. Went out hard but overall only 3L slower Hawk Gold Rush. 11 subs st for just 1 pl at Goulburn though from the race?

13.Madame Pauline ($7)- Resuming, First run since Dec 2017- Some ligament issue I believe. 3 trials- Beat Pandemonium in first trial under a hold and Pandemonium under some pressure.Latest trial settled behind speed pushed along 4th behind Newsfan. 2/2, 3 subs winners out of both races in 30 days after race. Betting?

Other chances:

6.Bomdiggity ($12)- Never let off the bit in recent Goulburn trial. Jumped well, went to line under no pressure at 800m. Won 2/3. Last win Sapphire sl quicker B58 on day.Pacifiers 1st time. Form out of last prep just fair.

4.Irish Songs ($12)- Draws well. Nice soft trial at Warwick Farm coming in. Won first up Gundagai mdn in slow figures last prep (3L slower Cl 1 on day) and then form was good in city before rounding out with a win. Runs well again.

Other runners:

2.I Am Kalani ($21)- Resuming- Two fresh runs finished fourth over 1000-1100. Last two wins 1200 and 1400. This too short? No official trials? FUP 355 days.

7.Nevada Dane ($28)- Won two of his past 3 starts. 4WNC only loss in between. 3rd,4th,5th out of last race all unplaced since and figures just fair LS.

10.Hoges- Scr.Gelded- Not far away first up last prep (weak form race) but most recent form just fair.

11.Nobody’s Puppet ($112)- Seemed to have his chance at past couple. Just beaten by Bomdiggity going back a bit Canberra Oct last year.

12.Panuara ($84)- Won at Dubbo fup long break. 3L slower other Cl2 on day and last 200m of 12.68 there. 8 subs st 2 placings out of race.

14.Revitup Rednut ($28)- Resuming- Won a trial in good fashion at Canberra leading in where sat wide and pulled away under minimal pressure. Top 2 9/14. Ran on 4th Hway 1100m fup Rhill last prep.

15.Roy’s Command ($65)- Two trials- 1st one easy time, Second one pushed along- second to Pandemonium. Did win Mdn fup back in Sep 17 over 950m.

16.Social Conquest ($84)- Freshened-Closed off well tickover trial Grafton- Can be a bit slow out. Got back at Tamworth, made runs through field and ran on solidly. Won weak form race 3 back. Doubt form strong enough.

17.Hot Scene ($84)- Resuming short spell.Led last start (soft lead) and kept going to score. Race run 2L slower B66 on day but that’s mainly race shape. 1 Cl1 winner 14 starters out of race.

 

Race 3

Overview: Hard to go past Nobu here and he seems to have turned the corner since returning from New Zealand. He was really good off a slow tempo first-up and then blew away a nice enough field (2nd Duchess Of Lennox has ran well since) in good figures last start. I’m always wary of big margin wins off the Kensington track (they can do that there) but he is the horse to beat all the same. Angel Of Heaven settled further back than expected at the mid weeks last start and then had little luck late. She should be finishing off well if she relaxes in the run, I want to make a case for Romani Girl improving here. She was wide in the Australian oaks and ran on OK prior in the Adrian Knox. I just think she might be looking for a dry track. Baeed gives them something to catch, while Carif looks next best.

Advice: Nobu to win.

Confidence rating on race: 8/10.

Selections: 2-5-6-3

2.Nobu ($2.20)- really good off a slow tempo first up and then blew rivals away when race set up for him LS. Form out of race good. Easily had subs winner Fun Fact’s measure there, second Duchess Of Lennox ran well since too. Up in weights quickly to 59.5kg.

5.Baeed ($10)- Won his past two at Bathurst and Hawkesbury in good style. Rolls forward and drops to 56kg.

6.Frenzied ($14)-Too good maiden company and then set up for him LS but got home over the tip. Race L600 slow but still progressing. Big track should suit.

3.Carif ($15)- Went forward and led.Went hard and caught late. Becoming costly. Run threeback against subs Derby quinella was good.

Other runners:

1.Fun Fact- Scr.Blinkers went on LS and did the trick in solid figures. More depth here and back up to 2000m but had excuses earlier this prep when WNC in Frank Packer and Carbine Club. Claim helps.

4.Stardome ($17)- Won Ncle Cl2 first-up and then had chance on right part of track Cant LS.

7.Fuji Fury-scr No match for Nobu LS. Doubt he can turn the tables.

8.Perfect Pitch ($20)- Fair in Wagga Guineas ans then OK behind Fun Fact. Drops 6kg, gets a 2.5kg swing on Fun Fact.

10.Notabadharada ($58)- COT to be closer LS but didn’t and finished off OK late off a slow tempo (small check early). Did take on the older horses there but still needs to improve a bit.

11.Angel Of Heaven- Scr.Mum won a Bris Cup. Settled further back than all expected LS and had no luck late. Overraced there and that’s the query here. Race manners. Bck to 2000m. Bigger track should suit.

12.Costas ($20)- Led mdn and won well and then took sit, keen in run and OK behind Wolfe latest.Took off before turn there. Beat home Stardome and Notabadharada there.

13.Think It Over ($12)- By So You Think out of a Zabeel mare so extra trip should suit. Was beaten in a Class 1 LS though LS mile.

14.Wealthy Wolf ($29)- Came from well back to win maiden (0.9s slower B70 on day ALL l600 too) and then race run to suit backmarkers and finished off OK LS. Against.

15.Brilliance Squared ($59)- Shown ability but still a maoden and this is tough.

Race 4

Overview: Hard to go past Wolfe and he should lead these and prove hard to beat third up. He found the 1400m too short fresh but bolted in at 1900m last start. Belfast Bella was great against the tempo at Hawkesbury and she is going really well this prep. Raqeeq has trialled well since running into the running rail last start and can improve sharply, while Dr Drill and Occupy should both be running on late.

Advice: Wolfe hard to beat but no value at $2. Belfast Bella to place.

Confidence rating on race: 8/10.

Selections: 4-14-11-8

4.Wolfe ($2)- Too short fup and wide. Got out to 1900m and far too good in solid late splits. Big track, should lead and be hard to beat.

14.Belfast Bella ($7)- Overcame slow tempo to win well two back and then tempo against LS. Almost a month between runs? Goes close if no setback.

11.Master Of Wine ($12)- WNC last start but they walked so that was OK. Not far away prior,Won 1700 o/seas and placed 2000m.

8.Raqeeq ($17)- Hit the running rail at 1000m last start and was a forgive run. Trialled well since found line well. Good off slow tempo at Hawkesbury prior.

Other chances for multiples:

6.Occupy ($14)- Found the line well in two runs this prep. Coming from Class 1 last start and entitled to run on with race shape and slow last 600m. Placed 2460m overseas so extra trip should suit. Austria failed out of that race since.

13.Zoffany’s Lad ($23)- Overcame slow tempo to score LS. Can get a touch keen every now and then. Two winners out of that last race-4th//5th placegetters.

Other runners:

1.He Ekscels-Scr.Too short first-up, stuck on second up mile. Race 3L slower than the 3YO race on the day. Won up to 1800, placed 2000.

2.Dr Drill-Scr.Specked first-up and ran on really well in a good rating race. Solid second up over the mile and wins have come over 2000m and 2400m overseas. 3 winners out of first race but not great form out of latest race.

3.Sir Barnabus($35)- Won a B75 in Bris and then stuck on in GC Cup last start on testing track. 2 woinners out of B75 two back

5.Braces ($70)- Recent form just fair. 5/8 wins rain affected surfaces. Prefer him on wet at this level.

7.Prometheus-Scr- missed start LS and held ground late. OK prior. 2000m- placed once 2000m but was beaten 10L that day on heavy track.

9.Ombudsman ($21)- No match for first couple but foind line OK last start. How did Nobu go earlier? Building and extra 200m suits.

10.Subban ($35)- Got home over the top from the back LS.Speed on last start to suit but did make up a stack of ground. Month between runs up in trip but looks a natural stayer.

12.Shadow Flight ($209)- Doubt his form is good enough.

Race 5

Overview: Kolding is two from two as a gelding and he has really turned the corner since then. He bolted in last start at Canterbury and the only concern I have is the 1500m and he is yet to tick that box. Having said that, he is clearly a different horse since being gelded and the $2.70 seems a decent price as well. Quackerjack rolls forward here from the gate and he chased home two smart horses last time out. Paulita has trialled well and the American mare is hard to line up, while Asharani will be running on late.

Advice: Kolding to win or Spencer to place.

Confidence rating on race: 7/10.

Selections: 5-1-7-8

5.Kolding ($2.30)- 2/2 since being gelded and he has really turned the corner. Put them away at Canterbury last start clocking QL400 and 200 of day in process. Sense of timing about him for Qld Guineas. Still has to tick 1500 box (luckless 1400m Kenso Feb then peaked on run 1500m Rosehill but looks a different horse now.

1.Quackerjack ($5.50)- Nice tickover trial since chasing home two nice horses at Hawkesbury. Could well roll to the front here and give them something to catcg. Good winner first up prior. 4 weeks between runs.

7.Spencer ($17)- 2L off Kolding, then copped squeeze at start and found the line well LS Kenso. 11.32 5th Ql200 of day LS. Rating/form out of race just fair. 2.5kg swing onKolding from two stats back.

8.Asharani ($10)- Won fup and 2nd up provincials then no luck realky last couple in Group company against the girls. Stopped in tracks late last start and before held up one of sev luckless runners in James Carr. 1500m now 1st time.

Others for multiples:

2.Paulita ($12)- American mare having first run in Aus. Two trials- first one soft out back, second one led and won well. Won restricted Listed race mile off 7 week freshen last year in US. .6s quicker other 1200m trial on day.

10.Nicco Lad ($13)- OK from the back last few starts. Race run 6L quicker mdn last start but mainly race shape. Can be a touch keen, 1st crack 1500m. Class/dist both queries. Think he has been overrated.

Against:

12.Reginae Scr- Seems under at $8.50? Ridden quieter last start in race where they didn’t go hard and she found the line OK. Doubt she is going well enough.

Other runners:

3.Chalmers- Scr.Not on the best ground at Hawkesbury but still disappointing. Loses Jmac. Good in Prov Champs Final prior.

4.Maktoum ($52)- 6 weeks between runs at wf two back covered ground and knocked up, bit disapp last start on track where you could run on. Needs to lift.

6.High Power ($52)- Two trials- Soft one at Gosford then pushed along and second to Manhattan Mist when they came away latest trial. Won B65 fup two preps back 1200m. FUP last prep ran on for 6th Rwick B70 1400M.

9.Commander ($200)- Won Wagga Guineas LS but doubt form strong enough. 2nd,3rd,4th-5th all beaten since.

11.Al Ma Haha ($40)- WNC his pst two starts but he is a momentum horse so don’t mind him being wide. 62kg and 60kg last two and no drops to 54kg. Class the obvious issue coming out of Hways. Beat Noble Boy three back.

13.Galapogos ($160)- Drops 9kg but was beaten in a Cl3 at Tamworth LS.

Race 6

Overview: Zonk got a soft lead first-up but she was pretty good to the line there and she clocked some quick splits home. She just might have turned the corner and she can either kick up or box seat here. Gododdin rolls across from out wide here and she was very good first-up off a long break at Canterbury. She was on the best part of the track that day but can only go forward. Ready To Prophet won a stakes race first-up although she has been a bit hit and miss in the past. Gongs can improve sharply here and she was on the worst part of the track first-up at Scone and you just couldn’t make ground on the fence that day.

Advice: Gododdin the horse to beat but Zonk the value.

Confidence rating on race: 5/10.

Selections: 1-15-4-3

1.Zonk ($4.60)- Reckon she has turned the corner. Soft lead LS but zipped home in strong figures (5th QL400 of day). Can take a sit if need be here with speed outside. Any knock strong 1200? Prob not.

15.Gododdin ($4.60)- Nice filly, who resumed off one soft trial and led and won at Canterbury first up.On pace and rail advantage that day but can only go forward. 4th.7th both won since.Won 1300m last prep so 1200m should be fine. Company on speed but upside.

4.Ready To Prophet ($7)- Always ran time at the trials and put it on the board race day first-up where chimed into race and won Denise’s Joy. Time OK (2YO Libertini clocked same time). Mixed form in past, can she reproduce?

3.Gongs ($12)- Much better than she showed first-up where she was caught on the fence which was several lengths inferior ground that day at Scone. Will improve. Rough place hope with speed on.

Other runners:

2.Gibraltar Girl ($40)- Got back and never featured fresh. Wasn’t on best ground all the same. Trialled well prior. Expect improvement but needs to lift.

6.Charlayne ($15)- Very soft Werribee trial. Form last prep just fair although has wpn first-up in past. Gets off speed here and should be closing late.

7.Fox Swift ($76)- Just fair first-up after two trials. This has more depth.

8.Evalina ($15)- Blinkers 1st time- Slow to begin, got back closed off OK Scone when 6L off RTP. Only 1/2kg swing on RTP here.

9.Sweet Victory ($45)- Pushed along two trials without the blinkers on. Won latest over Gresham and Isaurian. 1200m a touch short? FUP form just OK.

10.Vinnie Power ($38)- Out the back and never featured fresh after being crowded at start. Trialled solidly prior and expect to be closer.1300 back to 1200- all 5 x wins 1300m.

11.Lilith ($76)-Nice enough trial at Gosford coming in. Cl1 and Cl2 form last prep, doubt that is strong enough. Form around Roosevelt, Into The Abyss fresh though.

12.Alart ($76)- Rarely runs a bad race. Bit one paced.

13.Montrachet ($25)- Blinkers 1st time-Disapp fup, winner beaten 5L since. 2YO went quicker than race comes through LS.

14.Aperitif ($25)- Better LS but still a touch keen in the run. Wasn’t an overly strong race though and this looks harder.

16.To Your Health ($76)- On pace bias helped two back Gosford and then just fair LS. Needs to lift.

 

Race 7

Overview: Pretty open race this. I liked the run of Organza first-up in Group company and she gets her chance here with a terrific second-up record (four starts for three wins and a second). I just hope they are nice and aggressive early and get her into a good spot. Renewal was very good on the Kensington track last start and there have already been two winners out of that race. I think Moss Trip was too bad to be true last start (despite being on the worst part of the track) and she can definitely improve here out of sight here. New Universe, Noire, Special Missile and Mahalangur (just seems very short) are all capable.

Advice: Leaning to Organza just because of the odds over Renewal.

Selections: 13-11-8-4

13.Organza ($6)- Lovely return G3 level against the girls (race run 6L quicker Scone Guineas but race shape). No weight on back ahgain, 2nd up 4 st 3 wins, one second.

11.Renewal ($4.20)- Seems to be jumping a bit better now. Last three runs have all been pretty good. Beat a subs winner last start comfortably on the Kenso and first two put a gap in rest. Time was good, 2nd/5th both won since.

8.Moss Trip ($9)- Wrong part of the track first-up but disappointing all the same Fork in road moment as to whether she heads north for Tatt’s Tiara. Vetted, no abnormlities. Expect her to bounce back.Home track. Stable felt maybe half a run short last start too bit too bad to be true.

4.Special Missile ($11)- Turned his form around last two starts. Soft leads on both occasions but looks set to roll in front again here. 1600 back to 1400. Only 2 1/2L quicker Cl1 on day and form out of Scone Cup not great so far (3 subs st 0 pla). 5 weeks between runs.

Other chances:

1.Noire ($10)-Nice tickover trial where found line well. Claim helps and coming off a G2 placing latest effort back to an open handicap race. Fresh form is solid. 2nd Sheraco, 6th Southern Cross (slow tempo against) last two fup runs. Off a freshen here,

Against:

10.Mahalangur ($14)- Just seems unders at $6.50? In the right spot two back where he beat Special Missile (2kg swing in Mahalangur’s favour as well despite beating him home there) and then bit one paced Scone but stuck on.

Other runners:

2.Pecans ($32)- Former J Pride now first start K Lees. Just fair first up would need to improve. Honest mare though.

3.Snippets Land ($24)- No luck AT Caulfield and then tempo against LS but a touch disapp. Mixes form but has turn of foot on day,.

5.Harper’s Choice ($63)- Cross-over Nose Band OFF AGAIN, Tongue Tie FIRST TIME. Resuming. Generally better once he gets over further.

6.Zumbelina-Scr. OK at two runs back from a spell. G3 placed at 1500m last November so extra trip should help. 4 weeks between runs.

7.Tip Top ($24)- Was OK fresh over 1400m (touch far first up?), tricky draw here, do they go back? Won 2/3 second up and only missed top two finish once in 6 starts at this track.

9.New Universe ($15)-Ran on late Hawkesbury Gold Cup and then 3WNC and stuck on well Scone Cup.Gets a 2.5kg swing on Special Missile. Goes back and chimes in? Back to 1400m.

12.Zourkhan-Scr.Good first up when just peaked late on preferred wet track, then jock felt may not have liked firm surface latest. 1 win from 20 starts good tracks but he will improve on LS.

14.After All That ($31)- Run better than it looked at Scone where he was caught on wrong part of the track first-up. Has won twice second up but I prefer him on fresh side.

15.Berdibek ($381)- Closed off solidly in recent trial but I reckon they might be a bit sharp for him.

Race 8

Overview: What a cracking race this is. On paper, the winner should come from either Cradle Mountain and Deprive but there’s plenty of depth outside of that as well. Cradle Mountain is just a beauty and he has trialled up well and should be right there in the finish. Deprive was a late scratching after knocking his head in the gates last weekend. He flies fresh. I Thought So ran second in this race last year and has trialled well leading in but does have a big weight and is off a long break. I want to make a place case for Dissolute at big odds. He has a nice finish on his day and might be worth a place speck at the huge odds.

Advice: Cradle Mountain and Deprive appeal as the market suggests but I could speck Dissolute a place at huge odds.

Confidence rating on race: 6/10.

Selections: 4-15-14-12

4.Cradle Mountain ($2.75)- Cross-over Nose Band FIRST TIME, Tongue Tie FIRST TIME. Two really nice trials on speed, cruised through line in latest to win well in 33.1 L600. Bit of company up front but doesn’t have to lead. Can only run well. Defeat last prep was on wet track.

15.Deprive ($3.20)- Scratched after knocked head in barriers last week. Only defeat fresh was first-up last prep when he struck a wet track. Can reel off a big split on his day. Clearly talented. Rocketing late.

14.Dissolute ($32)- Best longshot.New stable- former Greg McFarlane. Wrong part of track LS, Cardiac arrythmia prior. Always had a nice turn of speed on his day. Probably too tough but place hope perhaps.

12.Heart Conquered ($12)- Just tired late under big weight fresh. 2YO ran quicker time on day the concern (similar tempos too). Prefers wet?

Other runners:

1.Badajoz ($37)- Not far away at Hawkesbury last start in Listed company. Tickover trial since was fine. Placed 3 of 6 second up. Just 60kg and giving weight to some up and comers.

3.Pinch River ($383)- Hard to recommend off first-up run.

5.Boss Lane ($95)- Blinkers OFF AGAIN, Nose Roll AGAIN. 8yo now. Fantastic, honest sprinter. 2 trials, split Cradle Mountain and I Though So in the first and won the second one. Loves it here but well held first up last two preps. 7/9 wins Randwick. 13 runs since last win.

6.Camdus ($383)- Hard to recommend on last two runs.

7.Guard Of Honour ($14)- Good behind two promising horses LS (wider the better that day and he was inside the other two). Ql400 of the day prior at EF. Runs on late.

8.Spending To Win ($48)- Meets GOH 2kg worse off for that horse beating him home. Gets a suck run and can bob up time to time.

9.She Knows ($32)- Off a freshen when 4wnc at Scone and faded. Would need to lift. 12 runs since last win.

10.Tonsor- Scr. Came a long way last prep and did trial well at WF leading In when one heat convincingly. Disapp b4 a break but probably came to end of prep. Tricky draw and in deep end now.

11.Akasaki ($24)- Had his right set up last start and got the cash. Fogures out of the race avg and this is much tougher.

13.Albumin ($47)- Back to 1100m now from 1400m. 4 of 5 wins at this distance but not sure how well he is going. Prefer him from low draws too.

17.Noble Joey ($300)- Prefer others in this field.

 

Race 9

Overview: November Man is yet to secure a start but I think he should be favourite if he does. He was enormous last start and clocked easily the quickest last 600m split of the day (32.56s-quickest on day by .4s). If he repeats that, I doubt they’ll beat him and we’re getting $8 too. Koonunga was good when wide at Canterbury last start and we will get a reference of that form through Gododdin earlier in the day. Power Command found the heavy track too much last start but beat three subsequent winners first-up, while Revenire and Taniko should both be running on late. Miss Exfactor blew the start first-up and can improve here.

Advice: November Man looks overs at $8.

Confidence rating on race: 7/10.

Selections: 22-16-17-7

22.November Man ($5.50)- Savaged the line last start behind Brook Magic. Overall figures race not great but he is going really well. 32.56 home, only horse to break 11 secs last 200m at meeting.

16.Koonunga ($8)- Brings different form to the table and chased home a nice one last start when wide there. Slow to recover prior to that/ Back to 1000m but sure to race well. 2 winners out of last race (4th and 7th and she finished second).

17.Power Command ($10)- Won first up in good time at Doomben and 3 subsequent winners out of race (2nd,4th and 7th). Too wet for her second up. Gets in light. Can bounce back. Does she prefer soft ground?

7.Taniko ($10)- Two trials out the back and just fair although under little pressure. Drawn wide. Won 3 of 7 races last time in, including first up Gosford 1000m. Gets back?

Other chances:

4.Revenire ($10)- Just fair first-up but gets blinkers on here. Drawn wide and just depends how far he has to get back? Real 1000m specialist.

6.Miss Exfactor ($12)- Forgive first up when made a meal of the start. Trialled OK since where still a touch slow out of gates. Was well in market first up. 1100 back to 1000,

13.Argent D’or ($14)- Right back from gate last start but closed off very well late to just miss. Weak form race but hopefully he can settle in front of a couple and he runs well.

Other runners:

1.Tango Rain ($17)- Blinkers off again. Disapp first up. Back in trip but jury’s out. 61kg but only 1000m.

3.Bring It Home Pop ($14)- Seemed to have chance fresh, then WNC last start and faded out of it. 1200 back to 1000m.

5.Goldfinch-Scr.Won this t/d two back when overcame trouble (weak form race 9 subs st 2 pla). Sat o/side lead and went too hard LS and faded on inferior ground.

8.Got The Goss-Scr.Back to 1000m here. Horse that gets back and runs on. Nothing would surprise in this race!

9.Lion Couchant ($43)- Was fup sincw Aug 217 when made to work to lead, kicked and only got tired late. Will be fitter but comes out of weak form race.

10.Fanning- Scr.Blinkers OFF AGAIN, Tongue Tie OFF FIRST TIME. Jumped well trial, went back, hit the line under own stream (bit keen in trial). Hard to have on recent form.

11.Star Crossed-Scr.Solid run first-up where beaten less than 1L. Time out of race not great but this isn’t overly strong. Gets a soft run in transit.

12.Isorich ($80)- Capable horse but he was below his best last prep. Would bob up at big odds and win here not so long ago.

14.Absolute Ripper ($24)- Too good two back at Orange and then took a sit the other day where I reckon she is better off rolling along in front. Chance if she does that here.

18.Ellie’s Encore ($170)- Freshened. Pushed out hard to win tickover trial at Ncle where several others in heat under much less pressure. Hard to have on recent form.

19.Three Sheets ($85)- Blinkers again. Got back and ran on two runs this prep. Hasn’t won a race for more than 1000 days now.

20.All Stand ($56)- On pacer. Two runs back OK. Tickover trial just fair. Not hopeless.

21.Leogang ($170)- 459 days since last win. Recent form just fair.

23.Roman Typhoon ($170)- Doubt he gets a run but needs to lift a touch if he does.



Brad Davidson - Brad Davidson preview Randwick May 25


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