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Sky Racing Brad Davidson Rosehill June 1

 May 31 2019

Rosehill June 1

Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6          F7              F8          F9

18/02/2017       Rosehill 3m        S6          On pace slight adv hard to make ground really wide                                                      

18/03/2017       Rosehill 3m        H10       Pretty good- inside OK,ON PACE sl adv                                                 

20/05/2017       Rose      3m        S5          Fair- Slight adv 2-3 off but marginal. Could run on                                            

1/07/2017         Rosehill 3m        s6          Very fair track                                            

19/05/2018       Rose      3m        G4         Fair track this.                                           

30/06/2018       Rose      3m        S7          Wide an advantyager again and if anything run on suited here                                              

11/08/2018       Rosehill 3m        G4         Getting a few off the fence here. On pace slight advantage                                                    

22/09/2018       Rosehill 3m        G4         Pretty fair track this. No disadv to be off pace and wide but could win on pace fence first six races at least                                                      

10/11/2018       Rhill      3            G4         Pretty fair re lanes. On pace slught adv as always good track racing                                          

1/12/2018         Rose      3m        G4         Fence inferior here. 3-6 the place to be. Seemed ok to sit 3wnc even without cover. Too many ran well doing so                                                  

2/02/2019         Rose      3m        S7          Pretty fair track re lanes and could run on although on pace slight adv         

23/03/2019       Rosehill 3m        H9         A few off fence in run here and wider. Not easy to make ground                                                          

Assessment- Good track rail out 3m at Rosehill seems pretty fair. If anything a few off rail again. Should be able to run on.

Wind: Gentle winds predicted (southerly).

Betting strategy

****I’ve decided to offer the two different strategies going forward. The normal strategy will be the same one I’ve been doing since August, the long game strategy will be the 100 unit betting bank idea. I understand that both strategies will suit different styles of punters, so please pick the one that suits you and gamble responsibly.

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less. A few more bets on most occasions will be included here to spread the risk across a race day.

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

 

Normal strategy (140 units)

Race 2 no.17 Vigorish 15 unit place at $3.50

Race 2 no.9 Onemore Sapphore 20 unit place at $6

Race 3 no.1 Ljungberg 15 unit win at $5

Race 4 no.9 Poetic Charmer 15 unit win at $5

Race 5 no.4 Pumpkin Pie 25 unit place at $3

Race 6 no.8 Echo Jet 5 unit win at $9.50 and 5 unit place at $3

Race 8 no.12 Strome 10 unit win at $7 and 10 unit place at $2.70

Race 9 no.1 Drachenfels 10 unit place at $3.30

10 unit quaddie (starts r6, 8/33%): 1st leg: 8,12,14. 2nd leg: 12,6,5,16, 2,4,9,13. 3rd leg: 12,15,7,18,1. 4th leg: 14.

Betting results since started on April 20: +282.3 units, 27%POT, 1050 unit outlay)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

 Long game strategy (4 units)

Race 2 no.17 Vigorish 0.5 unit place at $3.50

Race 2 no.9 Onemore Sapphire 0.75 unit place at $6

Race 3 no.1 Ljungberg 0.5 unit win at $5

Race 4 no.9 Poetic Charme 0.5 unit win at $5

Race 5 no.4 Pumpkin Pie 1 unit place at $3

Race 8 no.12 Strome 0.25 unit win at $7 and 0.25 unit place at $2.70

Race 9 no.1 Drachenfels 0.25 unit place at $3

 Betting results since started on April 20: +13.65 unit profit, (42%POT, 32.05 units outlayed)

 Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

 Think! About your choices.

 

Race 1

Overview: Exceedance made a big impression at Wyong on debut and the figures were there to back it up. His last 600m was eight lengths above the benchmark for that class of race he clocked the quickest last 200m split of the day in the process. Sun Patch is an interesting runner and he won an average maiden and then was outclassed in Group company but took on the Golden Slipper runner-up and Sires winner, Pago Pago Stakes winner and Champagne Stakes winner in that race. This is a fair drop back in grade! Rotator trialled up well and should park behind the speed and go close, while Splintex and Spaceboy come through a strong maiden on the Kensington track last time out where they ran quicker time than the benchmark race on the day off similar early sections.

Advice: Exceedance on top, Sun Patch could be overs off that very strong race last start? Is he ready off one soft trial for a stable that don’t get them rock-hard fit fresh?

Confidence rating: 5/10.

Selections: 5-8-4-1

5.Exceedance ($3.60)- 3L quicker older maiden on day. QL200 of meeting as well (quicker than River Bird, have to respect). L600 8L above benchmark for that type class of race.

8.Rotator ($5.50)- Good in two runs last prep against some nice enough horses. Liked his two trials this time in. Can park just behind them and should be strong late.

4.Sun Patch ($7)- Won a weak form race in strong style two back then thrown in the deep end in Group company, missed the start and just fair there but that was a serious race. Produced the Golden Slipper runner up, Pago Pago winner, Sires winner and Champagne winner.  Much weaker grade here though.

1.Splintex ($7)- Up in weight here (meets Spaceboy 2.5kg worse off) but ran quicker time than benchmark race on day off similar early splits.

Other chances:

2.Spaceboy ($7)- Ridden quieter in a recent trial? Second to SPlintex in that fast race. Gets 2.5kg swing. 1100m?

3. King’s Champ ($37), 7. Luff ($98), 9. Bring The Ransom ($25), 10. Rari ($49), 11. Persepolis ($98), 13. Depth That Varies ($74)

Race 2

Overview: Our Echo looks the horse to beat and he comes off proper Saturday and Listed form in Queensland where he has been far from disgraced. The race he comes through last start was about seven lengths quicker than the benchmark 80 on the day. He gets the blinkers on here. Two good roughies here in the shape of Vigorish and Onemore Sapphire. There is a stack of speed here and I think both of them can flash late. This looks a target for Vigorish third up out to his favourite trip, while Onemore Sapphire will just keep grinding away and can place at big odds. Rest Of The World looks next best.

Advice: Our Echo the horse to beat but value in Vigorish and Onemore Sapphore mainly the place.

Confidence: 6/10.

Selections: 2-17-9-1

2.Our Echo ($3.10)- Looks the horse to beat off proper Listed and Saturday form in Queensland. Times out of last few races have been good. Blinkers on. Good gate, Berry aboard.

17.Vigorish ($10)- Looks good overs here at $17. Like the way he found the line over 1200m, third up, gets to his right trip, and draws a gate to park in front of a few in the run.

9.Onemore Sapphire ($14)- Looks over the odds here at $31 and $8 the place. There is a stack of speed here and I think he will eat up a strong 1400m. Will get back but has Hway form last prep and did enough at Tuncurry fresh on the soft track. All form is on top of the ground.

1. Legion Of Boom ($14)-

Other runners: 3. Bridyn May ($23), 4. Blue My Jeans ($46), 5. Zardoro ($12), 6. Damseflys Kept ($14), 8. Assaultnbathory ($46), 10. Revolver ($70), 13. Tarazal ($14), 14. All Day ($23), 15. Palais De Louvre ($23), 16. Gold Skye ($70),

Race 3

Overview: Most of these come through the same race at Rosehill a couple of weeks ago and there wasn’t a lot between them that day. That makes me look for another form line and Ljungberg could be the one. He won against the bias first-up last prep (needed to be on the rail that night at Canterbury) and then bolted in second-up and then bumped into Vegadaze. His trials have been good and he runs well. Call Me Royal should appreciate the step up to 1200m and should find the front, while River Bird also runs on late.

Advice- Ljungberg to win.

Confidence rating: 6/10.

Selections: 1-5-14-3

1.Ljungberg ($4.20)- Two nice trials coming in. Won first-up last prep (against the bias, needed to be on fence that night at Canterbury) and then bolted in and then bumped into Vegadaze. Good form for this. Stable don’t get them wound up fresh the ?

5.Call Me Royal ($4.20)- 1200m should be more to her liking her. Caught late here LS in race many of these come through. Can roll along and prove hard to catch.

14.River Bird ($10)- Soft mdn win fresh, has form around Ljungberg last prep and was stiff many times last prep (should have beaten Reelem In Ruby at Canterbury).

3.Above And Beyond- Avg first-up but no luck last start against a few of these in a blanket finish. A repeat of that effort here sees him run well.

Other runners: 2. Skyray ($40), 6. Restrained ($27), 7. Toulouse ($27), 8. Silent Explorer ($160), 10. Exceltic ($16), 11. England ($13), 12. Legislation ($40), 13. Lancaster Bomber ($53), 15. Burning Crown ($13), 16 Nuke ($53).

 

Race 4

I think Poetic Charmer can land outside Oxford Tycoon here and they can control this from the front. I’ve liked Poetic Charmer’s trials without the blinkers on and they go on race day. He gets in light here and should be able to fan a few off the fence in the straight and prove hard to catch. Oxford Tycoon has been well backed in early markets and he will be hard to run down. Expect him to be positive early and he will improve off his first run in some time. Dracarys gets home from the back if they can run on as they should be able to.

Advice: Poetic Charmer to win.

Confidence rating: 6/10.

Selections: 9-10-1-12

9.Poetic Charmer ($4.50)- Liked his two trials without the blinkers on. They go on race day. Comes across with Oxford Tycoon- If he lands outside leader should go close. Fresh form is sound

10.Oxford Tycoon ($4)- Was always going to improve off first run off a long break. Should roll to the front. Just can’t get the gap as much as it is between him and PC hence why PC on top. Nothing between the. Doubt he was on the best ground fresh either.

1.Passage Of Time ($8)- Just fair in Qld last time out and won a weak race prior on the Kenso. Back to 1200m a ?

12. Kawaikini ($10)- Trialled up well. Will be running on.

Other chances:

2. Tougherthantherest ($32), 4. Top Striker ($16), 5. Onslaught ($16), 6. Fragonard ($16), 7. No Doubt ($16), 11. Sir Donald ($32),

Race 5

Overview:Hard to go past Reelem In Ruby and she looks to park just behind the speed and only just missed in a photo last start. I think the value in the race is Pumpkin Pie. She comes through a Group 3 race last time out where she was good late in a race run at a moderate tempo. The $3 a place looks fair enough for her and she just needs luck from the sticky draw. Nicci’s Gold chased home Seasons fresh last prep and just resumes at 1400m here (two trials v one trial last prep) instead of 1200m last campaign. Toryjoy is her own worst enemy (overraces) but looks next best.

Advice:- Reelem In Ruby well found but the $3 a place about Pumpkin Pie looks the bet.

Confidence rating: 7/10.

Selections: 9-4-2-8

9.Reelem In Ruby ($2.65)- Just missed last time out in strong rating race. Before that, won well at WF when set up for her. Lands behind speed and goes close. Going well but no value at $2.40?

4.Pumpkin Pie 9$8)- Comes through G3 race last time out where got back avg tempo and closed off well. Just tricky draw here the knock but $3 place looks OK.

2.Nicci’s Gold ($12)- 2 soft trials- Good second behind smart mare Seasons first-up last prep at 1200m. 1400m fresh? Should be finishing off.

8.Toryjoy ($11)- Own worst enemy as she doesn’t settle. Best chance IMO is to roll in front and let her just roll at a good tempo.

Other chances:

15.Constellations ($12)- Got her chance the other day and now draws wide? Might have to get too far back.

Other runners: 1. La ChIca Bella ($149), 3. Our Rockabyebaby ($25), 5. Pumpkin Pie ($37), 6. Ivys Court ($74),10. Sweet Ava ($15), 11. Let Me Sleep On It ($49), 12. Reginae ($25), 13. Zavance ($49), 14. Celtic Love ($75)

 

Race 6

Overview:Echo Jet went back from the wide draw last start and he thought he ran on pretty well considering that’s not his go. Expect him to be positive from the low draw with the blinkers on and he can give them something to catch. Kapajack is the horse to beat but I can’t see any value from that wide draw at $2.30. The other knocks are he is yet to tick the 1300m box and his best run last prep was first-up. Nicochet can run on late and his run fresh last prep was good in a race that produced five subsequent winners. Dynamited gets the blinkers on and can rush late, while Oriental Runner should run his usual honest race from up on speed.

Advice: Echo Jet the value.

Confidence rating: 5/10.

Selections: 8-12-14-13.

8.Echo Jet ($8)- Forgive run last time out when got back from wide gate and worked home. Blinkers again, drawn to be positive and run well.

12.Kapajack ($3.30)- Super run first-up when tempo was against. Seems a bit skinny here though at $2.30 considering gate 17 and yet to really prove himself at 1300m? Also best run last prep was first-up.

14.Nicochet ($12)- Two soft trials coming in. Had some good form around Sky Boy last prep and first-up run was sound as well when had to go back from gate before running on well in a race that produced five subs winners on the Kenso.

13.Dynamited ($12)- Blinkers on- Better second up in what I reckon is a stronger race than this. Yet to prove himself at 1300m though.

10.Oriental Runner ($11- Consistent. Hasn’t won for 451 days now but good third behind Desert Lord in stronger race reads OK for this.

Other chancesL

15.Red Currant ($18)- 8 weeks between runs and bar plates on last start where avg. Better than that.

4.Conarchie ($45)- Was actually held up last 200m last start. Hasn’t won for a while and others more upside but this isn’t a strong race.

17.Nicci’s Gold= Likely to run in other race?

Other runners:

2. Star Of Monsoon ($22), 3. Americana Magic ($15), 5. Mapmaker ($15), 6. Arraignment ($45), 7. Pelethronius ($90), 9. Dalmatia Prince ($36), 11. Fuel ($180), 16. Clear The Beach ($361), 17. Nicci’s Gold ($12)

 

Race 7

Overview: One of the most open races of the day this with several of these getting to 2400m for the first time. I would not be surprised if Girl Tuesday, Abdon, Black On Gold, Our Big Mike, High Opinion or Free Fly Too wins this. You could even throw in High Bridge in the quaddie at $21. Girl Tuesday is a deserved favourite off her last run but she is on trial at the trip and this is a very tough race/

Advice: Tough race!

Confidence rating: 2/10.

Selections: 12-6-5-16

12.High Opinion ($7.50)- Thought he was brave at Scone after being caught three wide no cover throughout. Drops in weight and his form ties in well with Abdon prior.

6.Girl Tuesday ($5.50)- Just missed in photo to the Grey Lion last start. On trial at 2400m but her mum won at this trip and she has turned the corner.

5.Black On Gold ($7.50)- Love the way he found the line last start. On trial at 2400m but had the strongest last 200m in the race most of these come through.

16.Free Fly Too ($9)- Unassuming staying type that just continues to race well. Hard to knock.

Other chances:

2.Abdon ($9)- On trial at the trip but was good late in the Lord Mayors and he just has to relax.

4.Our Big Mike ($13)- Won well in NZ over 2100m last start. Won the Pakenham Cup over 2500m last December.

9.High Bridge ($16)- Better last start in the Lord Mayors and he may have just turned the corner. Form prior was just fair but 7 of his 8 wins have been at 2200m and beyond.

13. Tamarack ($20)-

Other runners:

1. Destiny’s Kiss ($32), 3. Casterton ($64), 7. Hush Writer ($21), 10. Doukhan ($43) 11. Xebec ($64), 14. Kellstorm ($128), 15. Mazaz ($32)

Race 8

Overview: Looks a nice race for Strome to potentially go back to back and she was good when defeating Reelem In Ruby last start. She should park up midfield and she will be strong late (she has won twice at the mile so 1500m should be fine). Asterius is likeable but I think he is a horse that races best fresh. He wasn’t far away second up last prep though and his first couple of runs of the prep are normally his best before he gets a bit dour. Dagny was good first-up and just has to reproduce to run well again, while Goldstream (out of a Listed race last start but a weak form race) and Island Missile look next best.

Confidence: 6/10.

Advice: Strome each-way.

Selections: 12-15-7-18

12. Strome ($5)- Good win LS in good figures. B78 against own sex v now B88 against the boys but we get the price.

15. Asterius ($e6.50)- Super first-up but normally races best fresh. Second up is OK before he gets dour. Gets his chance.

7. Dagny ($9)- Good first-up when big odds, Can she repat?

18.Island Missile ($12)- Good first-up but most of his form is third up? One more?

Other chances:

1.Goldstream ($12): Not far away in Scone Cup-Form out of the race hasn’t been great the ?

Other runners:

3. Roman Son ($14), 4. Gresham ($20), 5. Poetic Dream ($143), 6. Up N Rolling ($48), 9. Hogmanay ($20), 10. Valentino Rossa ($13), 11. Veladero ($47), 13. Aylmerton ($143), 14. Manhattan Mist ($35), 16. Cogliere ($72), 19. Budderoo Knight ($35), 21 Our Winnie ($143)

 

Race 9

Overview: This looks tailor made for Spiritual Pursuit, who is beating the handicapper here with just 54kg on her back. She should roll to the front and she clearly has the best form coming into this when splitting Baller (5th in a G1 two starts later) and subsequent winner Prophet’s Thumb last start. She has had a small break and two trials coming in. I think Drachenfels is a good place chance here and he will be running on late, while Oneness and Wagner (luckless last start) look best of the rest.

Advice- Spiritual Pursuit hard to beat but we’ve missed the price.

Confidence rating: 8/10.

Selections: 14-1-7-4

14.Spiritual Pursuit ($3)- Rolls forward and should be hard to catch here. Bolted in first-up and second up last prep and then almost knocked off Baller and defeated subs winner Prophet’s Thumb in the process. Potentially better on wet ground but rolls to the front and should be hard to catch.

1.Drachenfels ($9)- Loved his recent trial coming in. Hasn’t won for a while but raced in stronger company last prep and can sprout wings late here.

7.Oneness ($7.50)- Can settle much closer here. Just missed in photo first-up.

4.Wagner ($8.50)- No luck LS but bookies haven’t missed him and I’m not sure that’s the right form line. OK prior.

Other chances

12.Koonunga ($16)- No luck at all last Saturday and forget she went around- Drawn wide here though?

Other runners:

2. Catesby ($12), 3. Chapelco ($52), 6. Dio D’Oro ($52), 8. Tell Me ($39), 9. Sanctioned ($39), 10. Star Crossed ($26), 11. Anna’s Joy ($39), 13. Invictus Salute ($78), 15. Crafty Tycoon ($52), 16. Old Man Sam ($70), 17. Traumatised ($20), 18. Three Sheets ($100).



Brad Davidson - Sky Racing


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