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Brad Davidson preview Randwick Kensington June 26

 Jun 25 2019

Kensington June 26

Best each-way
Race 7 no.7 The Party Girl $6 and $2.20 (rated $4.50)
Next best
Race 2 no.1 Covert Operation $3.50 (rated $3)
Best roughie
Race 3 no.1 Chapelco $10 and $2.50 (rated $8)

Betting strategy

****I’ve decided to offer the two different strategies going forward. The normal strategy will be the same one I’ve been doing since August, the long game strategy will be the 100 unit betting bank idea. I understand that both strategies will suit different styles of punters, so please pick the one that suits you and gamble responsibly.

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less. A few more bets on most occasions will be included here to spread the risk across a race day.

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels

 

Normal strategy (70 units)

Race 2 no.1 Covert Operation 15 unit win at $3.50

Race 3 no.1 Chapelco 5 unit win at $10 and 5 unit place at $2.50

Race 6 no.2 Tycoon Street 5 unit place at $3.30

Race 7 no.7 The Party Girl 17 unit win at $6 and 18 unit place at $2.20

5 unit multi ($9.65)- Race 1 no.4 Rotator to win ($2.25) into Race 2 no.1 Covert Operation to place ($1.95) into Race 7 No.7 The Party Girl to place ($2.20)

Betting results since started on April 20: + 310.7 units, 19%POT, 1630 unit outlay)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy (2.25 units)

Race 2 no.1 Covert Operation 0.5 unit win at $3.50

Race 3 no.1 Chapelco 0.2 unit win at $10 and 0.3 unit place at $2.50

Race 6 no.2 Tycoon Street 0.25 unit place at $3.30

Race 7 no.7 The Party Girl 0.5 unit win at $6 and 0.5 unit place at $2.20

Betting results since started on April 20: +17.7 unit profit, (36%POT, 49.85 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Track: Heavy 10, 5m rail.

History:

Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6              F7          F8          F9

31/10/2018       Kenso    5m        G3         Only one winner further back than 3rd on day settlong buit could make ground. Wider the better late                                                   

1/01/2019         Kenso    5m        G3         Pretty fair track. Hard fence maybe not best part last half card. Could make ground                     

22/04/2019       Kenso    5m        G4         Pretty fair track no disadv to be on speed ut could make ground. Got wider as day went on          

Assessment- Seems pretty fair. Maybe a touch off the rail and a touch on pace.

Wind: Gentle crosswind (winning post to grandstand).

Race 1

Overview: Rotator gets a nice opportunity to breakthrough here and Saturday class back to Wednesday grade. She looks hard to beat. Madrigima was good on debut and can progress.

Advice: Rotator to win

Confidence: 7/10.

Selections: 4-3-1-2

4.Rotator ($2.20)- Very good in a sharp rating race fresh (finished alongside Exceedance) and late splits sharp. Second up QL200 of the race, just held up to 250m but ran on well (slow out there as well).

3.Madrigima ($7)- Slow out, overcame slow tempo to score on debut. QL600 and 200 of day. Overall figures just fair. 2nd/6th/8th all won since. By Sebring, extra trip should suit.

1.Roman Wolf ($8)- 11.66 QL200 of the day two back and then late figures were solid again but coulnd’t get into it LS. Back onto pripoer wet potentially?                                 

2.Warfare ($14)- Bit keen last two starts. Set up for him with speed on LS but won well (time was OK compared to Benchmark race on day). 3 winners out of race two back. This looks another level?

Other runners:

5.My Fire Phoenix ($14)- Led short course Rwick trial and won under a hold in solid time (L600-33.1). Won a weak mdn on debut then form after OK. This another level.

6.Royal Marine ($14)- Shown speed in two trials. 3rd and 1st when not asked great deal in either. Latest time just fair.

7.Zarzou ($170)- Got back only start after slow away and never featured. Slow out In trial and given easy time when 4th.

8.Lucicello ($14)- Looked disapp first-up but race rated as well as benchmark race on day and winner second to Funstar and third should have won in Qld on weekend in strong race. Led LS which I think was ideal because can overrace. Tactics here? Doubt fence was best part LS?

 

Race 2

Overview: Absolutely love the stride on Covert Operation and while I think he will be slow out, I’m confident he will be the strongest late. Looks promising.

Advice: Covert Operation to win.

Confidence: 7/10.

Selections: 1-3-4-8

1.Covert Operation ($3)- Slow out two trials but absolutely charged to the line under no riding really L600 of trials slowish the knock but beautiful stride on him. ½ to 9 time winner Spirit OF Enfeavour. Should be strong late!

3.Olorin ($3.40)- Jumoed well sat behind peed and not asked for nothing when 2nd to in trial. Winner won a maiden narrowly since at Wyng. Trial tiem OK (.2s slower Splendid Surprise and slower L600)

4.Splendid Surprise ($6)- Two trials- First 2nd to G3 winner Tony Nicconi under not a heap of pressure. Slow out both trials and then mustered.Won latest trial Gosf  (second horse unraced)/.

8.Skyann ($8)- WNC on debut on strong speed and naturally faded. Trialled well soft track since but always trialled well. Yet to brng to races. Has had a few excuses- lame etc last prep. Blinkers 1st time. 36.8s L600 in trial was slowest of day though when she won Rhill 900m trial.

Other runners:

2.Emergent- Scr.Not far away B64 debut, then went to line with subs stakes placegetter Final Award following start (subs G2 winner Kolding/Front Sight finished one-two there). Trialled well then disap fup Newc. Got back, overraced, jock said not comfortable on track. Wet? ½ to G2 winner Domesday.

5.C’est La Vie ($84)- Worked hard early and wide LS and looks to get a softer lead but doubt she is up to these.

6.Lilium ($14)- Wrong part of track debut but race was weak. 2yo went .8s quivker overall.

Race 3

Overview: Happy to speck Chapelco here and he gets a great front running rider aboard and should be ready now. He runs well from the front. Stella Sea Sun looks the horse to beat all the same.

Advice: Chapelco each-way.

Confidence: 5/10.

Selections: 1-6-4-2

1.Chapelco ($8)- Showed glimpses LS and did kick and then got tired late. Back to midweek grae and should lead again. Doesn’t want it too wet.Won S6 1300m here and does run well Kenso.

6.Stella Sea Sun ($2.25)- Good off slow tempo two back then made move before turn and just beaten by a swooper LS (race run slow early so swooper was good). Gets a good run on map. Shinn on. Covered ground LS. S5 worst been on race day.

4.Watchdog ($5)- Seemed to have his chance of late. Gets a good run here. Knocking on the door. Won on s7.

2.Cyber Intervention ($15)- Promising middle distance/staying horse resuming. 2nd 1250m trial leading in pushed out. Gets back could run on but likely to be a touch short.

Other runners:

3.Randiki ($30)- Got home OK first-up in race where they went along. Now second up long break? 9yo too.

5.Vinnie Power ($15)- Disapp so far this prep. Went forward last start and sat outside lead and they went too hard and set it up for backmarkers as a result/ Still jury’s out. All 5 x wins  at 1300m.

7.No Interest ($30)- WNC first-up but well beaten. Wet track record not great.

8.Golly Miss Solly ($18)- Two trials- run off legs first one. Sat 2nd and won second one. FUP since Dec 17.

 

Race 4

Overview: Tricky race. Happy to give Kaapfever another chance but No Money No Honey has been going really well in Melbourne as well and gets through wet ground.

Advice: Tricky race.

Confidence: 3/10.

Selections: 8-9-5-7

8.Kaapfever ($6)- Held up before turn and then hugged rail which was inf ground LS. That was first go at 2100m and like the way he ran. Now up to 2400m. Wet track looks no issue. Runs well with no weight on his back.

9.No Money No Honey ($6)- Set up for LS but good second where first 2 gapped the rest. Chased home Bea Tempted prior. Wet no issue. 2400m first time. Seemed to peak a touch LS 2100m but racing well.

5.Terwilliker ($6)- Tough effort LS 2400m wet track. Did have 49kg on his back though and now goes up to 58kg. Apprentice to senior hoop though. Meets Ombudsman 5kg worse off and TUnero 6.5kg worse. Won by 6L 2600m prior. Will keep coming.

7.Stardome ($13)- Too keen with blinkers on LS but run prior was solid in Saturday grade (came again late). 2400m first time. Won soft 5, only other wet run last time with blinkers on when went too hard.

Other chances:

1.Not A Single Cent ($8)- Ran well in the Qld Derby and lead up form was solid. Can park a bit closer from the gate here. 61kg the leveller. Beaten 6 1/2;L Norman Robertson only run soft track. Hasn’t seen heavy.

3.Ombudsman ($10)- Seemed to loom and knock up last start. Fitter and has won 2400m wet track on Rwick course proper. Meets Terwilliker 5kg better off at weights.

12.Shangani Patrol ($13)- Shuffled back LS before turn and was OK late. Has won on a heavy 10 at WF over 2200m. 2nd to Tamarack 2400m last prep. Not hopeless here. Wet track a plus.

Other runners:

2.Tunero ($44)- Too bad to be true LS but no excuses really in stewards report apart from losing a plate. Run prior just fair. Hard to have.

4.Jazzland ($22)- Likely to be saved for another race I believe.

6.FujI Fury ($33)- 3WNC LS and faded out. Trial since OK. Needs to lift.

10.Leardo ($66)- Won mdn on H9 but recent form just a touch below most of these I believe? Had chance LS. 2400m first time.

11.Misty Mountain Hop ($132)- LS winner in soft figures. Beaten 9L behind Terwilliker prior. 2nd horse Gosf also beaten a long way by Terwilliker prior.

13.Never Been Another ($44)- Blinkers again. Got back OK late LS. Not a lot of luck prior to that. Wet track a ?

14.Glamarama Girl ($330)- Hard to recommend.

15.Purrfect Trickm($330)- Hard to have.

 

Race 5

Overview: Not much between Unguarded and Haut Brion Her and I just feel the latter is a touch too well found in the market. Black And Tan can run well, while Missybeel isn’t hopeless at odds. Follow any betting move for I’m Pretty Strong as this isn’t a strong race.

Selections: 5-6-7-8

Confidence: 5/10.

5.Unguarded ($4)- Tempo/bias against two back. Went hard LS and struggled to travel and then looked winner and just peaked late. Ear Muffs off (might have been reason for struggling to keep up LS?).

6.Haut Brion Her ($3.30)- Two soft trials- Bit keen in latest but won defeating Wagner and co in slow time (slowest heat of morning). 2nd to Sylvia’s Mother other. 2nd to Zalatte and then won Mdn last prep agaubst weak field in fair figures (.3s slower other mdn). May go to a new level? 1400m fresh?

7.Black And Tan ($9.50)- Got back and closed off solidly two back and then got back and railed through to score in blanket finish LS. Time just fair and form ordinary 11 subs st 2 placings.

8.Shantou ($19)- QL200 of the day first-up when good from the back. WNC last start forgive. 3rd up last prep WNC and stuck on for 2nd Wyng 1350m. Wet track? Won S5 but two runs wetter avg.

Other runners:

1.Missybeel ($23)- Blinkers off- Two trials- Soft one first one- pushed along when 3rd KG 800m latest trial. Rolls forward. Will be better over further but can run cheeky race. Last 3 wins 1800 and 1600m.

2.I’m Pretty Strong ($9)- Two soft trials where settled off speed and not asked for a great deal- 2 US wins were over mile. Betting?

3.Loved One- Scr.Blinkers off, winkers on. Blinkers on LS, raced keen and well beaten. Trainer said soft conditions to blame? Failed both runs soft 5? Beat Unguarded prior when had favours on day had to be on speed.

9.High Low Bet ($23)- Set up for her to run on fresh was OK. Beaten by Unguarded there. 12 runs or 792 days since last win.

10.One Fire Beach ($28)- Wrong part of the track LS forgiving but two back just fair although was 1200-1500m. R/up 3 back but needs to lift.

 

Race 6

Overview: Leaning to Echo Gem who has clearly loved these wet tracks of late. The 1400m is a niggle though. Seles will be running on, while Southern Romance also has claims off a solid win last time out. The horse that interests me the place is Tycoon Street. She had to get too far back LS but can settle closer here. Her wet form is better than it reads on paper.

Advice: Tycoon Street to place.

Confidence: 5/10.

Selections: 1-3-2-6

1.Echo Gem ($4)- Worked early LS but kicked and just chased down late. Enjoying wet tracks. Should find front easy enough. First crack 1400m. Can carry weught.

3.Seles ($4.30)- Didn’t run on fresh then set up for her second up but finished well to score. 2.5kg swing on Echo Gem from two back. Two heavy runs just OK. Won on S6 latest.

2.Tycoon Street ($10)- Won two back (slower time than mdn) and then had to go right back gate LS. Closed off well. 2nd QL200 of race. 3kg swing on Echo Gem from that day and cans it closer. All wins on dry.

6.Southern Romance ($5)- .6s quicker B70 on day but mainly tempo. Good second first up prior. Not much between her and Seles last prep and meet at same weight scale. Gun run LS and now wide draw.

Other runners:

5.Positive Peace ($12) Won her past two- Form out of Goulb race not much goo but 3rd won at Wyong since out of latest win (also .4s quicker other Cl2 on day). 2nd beaten 4L Cl1 since though. Well beaten both heavy runs. Won S5.

7.Impetuoso ($60)- Won three back at Hawkesbury but form out of that race has been poor (9 suvs st 1 pl) and her runs either side have been avg.

8.Sensacova ($20)- Found the line well first-up from the back first-up. Fogures from race not great and second up record just fair? Did beat home Seles comfortably though.

9.Song And A Prayer ($15)- Slow out and not suited by tempo LS. Went wide mid race and copped a check and covered ground and held ground. Was a bit keen there, Won at Nowra prior in fair figures (form out of race not great-9 subs st 3 pl).

10.Priestess ($60)- Won Mbrook LS but started big odds and was never in it LS.

 

Race 7

Overview: The Party Girl looks a good each way gamble here at $6 and I’ve got her favourite in my book. Her two runs this prep have been super and she overcame a slow tempo to score last start. She is on trial at this trip but her mum won at a mile and she is by Sebring too. I think she runs really well. Lady Of Shallott has good form lines but I’m concerned about her on heavy.

Advice: The Party Girl looks a good each-way gamble at $6.

Confidence: 7/10.

Selections: 7-5-8-10

7.The Party Girl ($4.50)- Beat home Andaz and found the line well first-up. Second up overcame slow tempo to score. Only heavy run came from last to finish 5th to Winter Bride SC last year. Won up to S6. Should get through it.  1550 for first time but mum won at a mile and by Sebring.

5.Lady Of Shallott ($6)- Tempo against last two starts but ran on well. Not a heap of pace here again? Heavy track a ? for mine. Best runs been on good ground.

8.Breakdance ($8)- Found the line well first-up off slow tempo to have 2nd quickest late splits of race behind TPG. Meet at same weight scale. Placed heavy overseas. Does he want ever further now? 2nd up 1900m last prep?

10.Tobermory ($16)- Loved wet tracks and gets a bit further  now too. Race about 6L slower than 1400m Mdn on day (race shape). Hway/country form to city but will love conditions. Extra trip suits.

Other runners:

1.Dalmatia Prince ($13)- Really good with no luck fresh then slow pout and never got into it latest. Sat back to Wednesday grade. Do they go back? 4 of 7 wins this dist range or above so extra trip should suit. Wet seems OK.

2.Monasterio ($16)- Just fair fresh and then went forward and faded second up. Does he land forward again? Seems to get through heavy OK.

3.Yulong Emperor ($65)- Beaten by a big margin two runs in Aus. Blinkers off here and tickover trial with them off since LS just fair. Wet?

4.Andaz ($9)- Ran on well two back in race where entitled to at WF and then box seated and too good at Gosford against avg field. Runer up Cliff H10 WF last Oct who is a good wet tracker. Gets through it.

6.McMahon ($16)- Won weak form race two back (12 subs st 1 win, 1pl since). Fair since then in weak form race (5 subs st 0 pl). Won a mdn on H8 though so gets through ground.

9.Litzen-Raced yesterday.

11.Broom Broom ($16)- Won his mdn on heavy 8  but not sure recent form is strong enough. Didn’t have the clearest passages v Andaz and The Party Girl two back then just avg latest.

12.Art Of More ($14)- Looks the leader in the race. Won at Goulburn two back in avg figures (7 subs st 2 pl) and then just fair latest. Reckon last 400m query. Has won S7.

13.High Low Bet ($13)- Finished off OK first up- Expect to run 1400m?



Brad Davidson - Brad Davidson preview Randwick Kensington June 26


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