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Brad Davidson preview Warwick Farm July 31

 Jul 30 2019

Best bet

Kembla Grange Thursday

Race 2 no.3 Mo’s Crown $2.10

Chased home True Detective on debut last prep and you could make a case to say he could have beaten that horse if he was rails in run (mad rails in run day). Too wet for him before a break. His trials have been super and he lands behind the two leaders here and should be too strong. I expect him to start odds on against a few horses that have had a few chances or don’t have the figures he has produced yet.


Canterbury Wednesday

Good track, rail out 8m.


Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6              F7          F8          F9

20/06/2018       Cant      8m        H9         Tough to make some gorund early but then got wider late. Coud still win a few off late                                                 

12/09/2018       Cant      8m        S6          Pretty fair track maybe closer to rail early and easier to make ground wide later                        

Assessment: Not enough data to have a firm view. 6m rail is very on pace though so this may be as well.


Normal strategy (110 units)

Race 1 no.4 War Baron 25 units at $3.70 (locked in Monday night)

Race 2 no.2 Island Missile 5 unit win tote

Race 2 no.3 Seeingisbelieving 15 units at $3.90

Race 5 no.3 Zidane 2 unit place tote

Race 6 no.1 Bombarding 2 unit win tote and 6 unit place tote

Race 6 no.3 What Could Be 5 unit place tote

(Put on in morning in case scratchings)-15 unit main quaddie (starts r4, 9.375%): 1st leg: 1,2. 2nd leg: 3,5,6,9. 3rd leg: 1,2,3,7. 4th leg: 1,3,4,6,10.


Kembla Grange Thursday

Race 2 no.3 Mo’s Crown 35 units at $2.10

Results: -26.9 units, (-1% POT, 2796 unit outlay)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.


Long game strategy (4.2 units)

Race 1 no.4 War Baron 1.25 units at $3.70 (locked in Monday night)

Race 2 no.2 Island Missile 0.25 unit win tote

Race 2 no.3 Seeingisbelieving 0.5 unit win at $3.90

Race 5 no.3 Zidane 0.1 unit place tote

Race 6 no.1 Bombarding 0.1 unit win tote and 0.25 unit place tote

Race 6 no.3 What Could Be 0.25 unit place tote


Kembla Grange Thursday

Race 2 no.3 Mo’s Crown 1.5 units at $2.10

Results: +9.075 units, (11% POT, 83.15 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.


Race 1

Overview: We’re on War Baron early here and I think we got the overs. The tight Canterbury track is the issue but I think he is the best horse here and the step up to the mile and Nash Rawiller going aboard are two big plusses. Frosty Rocks beat him home last start but he had no luck and his run in the Fernhill last prep was great before he fell. Captain Stardust and Frosty Rocks on the next line.

Advice: War Baron to win (hope you’re on already as no value now).

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Speed looks even with Tisane, Frosty Rocks and Nombuso prominent. War Baron should be just behind them.

Likely market trend: They’ve come for War Baron early. He might get out a touch late with the market percentage coming down but I think he starts favourite all the same.

Selections: 4-2-1-6

4.War Baron ($2.90)- Good from back first two runs this held up and good last 200m latest. Gets 2kg swing on FR. Was going close in Fernhill before fell. Like him here. 5th horse Mandela won since.

2.Captain Stardust ($3.80)- Got back moderate run race LS and came home quickest late splits. Just missed but good gap to third. Form around EP which ties in with FR and WB. No issue at mile.

1.Frosty Rocks ($3.80)- Stuck on well last two starts. Mile looks to suit now. Not far away and will kick on. Meets WB 2kg worse off here. 5th horse Mandela won since.

6.Tisane ($20)- Soft time on speed on debut and kicked on. Race run in fair figures. Extra trip could suit and should improve career start 2 but doubt that’s the right form. Winner of race first win in 6 starts.

Other runners:

3.Kimpembe ($40)- Started big odds but pulled up 2/5 lame on debut/ Trialled OK since over 735 always going to be too short. By Savabeel should appreciate extra trip. 1200-1600?

5.Nombuso ($39)- Found the line OK first-up then went forward and disapp econd up. Now 1300 to a mile. Lunged forward hit the gates prior to start, passed fit to start.

7.Avaluanche ($79)- Just fair in two runs back. Extra trip could suit but needs to lift.

8.Quintessa ($79)- Out the back and never in it fresh. Hard to have off that. Comfortably beaten by FR and WB there.

9.Mooy ($300)- Slow out and never featured fresh. Now 1200-1600m. Likely to miss start again

10.Royal Popcorn ($1000)- Prefer others.


Race 2
Overview: I think Seeingisbelieving deserves to be favourite here and I think there is a little edge there. He chased a hot speed last start and just missed to Ulusaba who has ran well in Saturday city grade since (third horse from that race Our Gravano has won too). Island Missile should jump out of the ground back onto a dry surface and I just thought he would be a bit longer in the market? They look the main two.

Advice: Seeingisbelieving to win.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Expect Seeingisbelieving to get across and sit outside Monasterio here with Snippetspeed also there. Speed all depends on how hard Monasterio goes (he went very hard last start when overracing!).

Likely market trend: Expecting Seeingisbelieving to start fav. I wouldn’t be surprised if Island Missile drifts a touch and if he does, I could save on him.

Selections: 3-2-4-5

3.Seeingisbelieving ($3.50)- Chased hot speed LS and just missed. Third horse has won and Ulusaba good in the city since. Gets another chance.

2.Island Missile ($4.50)- First two runs were good and then bogged down on wet tracks last two starts. Yet to win past 1400m but placed several times 1800-2000m in Sat city races. Can bounce back here. 12 runs since last win. 3rd and 9th both won out of LS.

4.Decroux ($6.50)- Jason Deamer done a good job to get him to switch off and finish off. Set up for him LS but too strong late. This is a whole new level but deserves a chane. Ran on solidly two back Sat city grade

5.Snippetspeed ($5.50)- Sat outside lead and seemed to have chance LS but solid effort all the same. Back to 1900m here. Prefers it wet but racing well enough.

Other runners:

1.Monasterio ($15)- Blinkers went back on last start, keen in the lead and kicked on OK. Will he go quick in front again. Won 1900-2000 in the past but being ridden differently now and not settling a ?

6.Hoof Hustler ($46)- Stuck on OK first-up. Finished off well enough in trial since. Reckon 2400m more his go?

7.Toulouse ($35)- Just going fair of late and needs to lift. 403 days, 10 runs since last win. 2400m back to 1900m.

8.Sculptures ($23)- Finished off well enough last start when race set up to finish ioff. 9 runs since last win. This looks harder.9yo up in grade.


Race 3

*Not enough data to price efficiently

Overview: Deep race. Good race but tough to find an edge. Mo’s Crown has the tricky gate but I loved his run against True Detective last prep. He would have beaten that horse too if he was on the fence for mine (mad fence bias that day). He has trialled up well and the gate is the obvious query. Rome runs well but is too short off a good trial (slow time and inferior opposition though). You Rang was really good fresh over an unsuitable trip and will be hard to run down, while Colada runs on late.

Confidence : 2/10.

Advice: Keen to see what some of these do for a future perspective.

Speed map: Deference and You Rang look the two up there early with Bellarine also showing speed at the trials. Tempo looks above average.

Likely market trend: So much unknown here. Your guess is as good as mine.

Selections: *2/  11-4-14-12

*Does Mo’s Crown run Thursday instead? On top if here but 11 You Rang on top if not.

*2.Mo’s Crown- Beat all bar True Detective on debut (time 3L slowrr than the fillies) but he wasn’t on  best part of the track then. Didn’t handle the heavy after. Two trials- Soft one, second stiked up to win. Took sit in trials? Tactics from gate? Missed start debut. Keen in trials.

11.You Rang- Trialled really well then well backed fresh when second to Escaped. Time similar Cl1 on day. 1st two gapped rest. Extra trip helps. By Sebring.

4.Rome: Like the way he trialled up. Could have won heat if he wanted to. Time was 6l slower Mo’S Crown heat on day (All L600). No blinkers trial but on race day. 4th Breeders Plate debut. Second in a Black Opal fresh last prep.

14.Colada- Got back and closed off under own stram in trial. Fresh run better than looked last prep. Gelded. 3WNC when well held behind Mo’s Crown before a break.

12.Deference- held up two back , overraced and didn’t finish off. Led latest and stuck on when beaten by Knock Knock who has since finished second in a B70. Bowman on, gets another chance.

Other runners:

1.Duneagle- Showed speed, sat just behind leaders and wide in trial and not asked for a lot. Went to line not under much pressure at all.

3.Napster- 3 trials just OK for mine. Market?

6.Always Roses- Back in first trial and finished off OK. Midfield inn 2nd trial WF and pushed out to score there. Time was solid. Draws well.

7.Bellarine- Shown speed and won both trials WF this time in not under much pressure. Should be up there early. Latest time jst fair. .4s slower Always Roses heat.

8.Lot’s Wife- Slow out in trial and no real impact when 7th of 8 Rwick 735.

10.Super Oasis- Scratched. Ran on well on debut (weak form race 8 subs st 1 pl) then overraced, wanted to wander about in straight when held up but still disapp clear LS. Two lovely trials- Won latest WF 807.

13.Get Hitched- Second to Steel Diamond in recent trial. Pushed along there. Well held only run last prep.

15.Sweeping Statement- Run OK fresh but time poor. 4L slower than 2YO C+G race and most L600. Against.


Race 4

Overview: Not much between Seles and Moana Jewel here. Seles drops back to midweek grade her and her last splits have been strong of late. She just needs to hold a spot a touch closer. Moana Jewel was a good thing beaten last start and can only run well again. Both horses have beaten home Monegal in recent runs. Monegal has each-way claims but I’m not sure she likes Canterbury? High Low Bet comes out of a race that has produced three Saturday city winners but is she a wet tracker?

Confidence: 4/10.

Advice: Moana Jewel too obvious and hence no real value for mine.

Speed map: Not a lot of speed here. Positive Peace leads with Gypsy Miss handy. Do they roll forward on Moana Jewel. Otherwise, she is last in a likely moderately run race? Seles gets back too.

Likely market trend- I reckon the market will gravitate to Moana Jewel and Seles here, particularly the former due to the fat she was a good thing beaten last start.

Selections: 2-1-5-3

2.Moana Jewel ($3.80)- bolted in two back in good time and then shd have won LS on day where hard to make ground. Sticky draw (goes back?) but gets another chance. Up 4,5kg.

1.Seles ($4) Good from back last two and beat home Monegal two back and get s a 3kg swing in her favour for that. Should get home late here.

5.High Low Bet ($6)- Solid from back last start in race where 1st 2nd and 5th all won Sat city races since. 4TH last run over mile earlier this year WF when on wrong part track. Never won beyond 1300m but some njcie races this dist range. Best runs wet tracks?

3.Monegal ($7)- Had a good prep- Seemed to not really enjoy Cant last start but stuck on well. Meets MJ same weight and that horse should have beaten her home comfortably LS.

Other runners:

4.Positive Peace ($10)-Solid effort last two starts. Kicked and looked home LS and just caught late. This has a bit more depth but gives kick on speed.

6.Sensacova ($20)- Just OK last couple- Positive Peace beat her home LS BY 1L but she gets a 4kg swing on that horse. Each way hope. All 4 wins this dist range.

7.Emerald Earth ($101)- hard to have on last run.

8.Gypsy Miss ($51)- Gets some significant weight relief and was 3WNC last start. Does she have the right form though? I don’t think?



Race 5

Overview: Open race this. I think All Too Free and Touch Of Mink are the hardest to beat. TOM gets the blinkers on and she was well backed fresh where she may have just needed it. All Too Free was good against the bias fresh (leaders day) when clocking the quickest last 800m of the day. Adana might find it a touch short but has form around Vegadaze fresh last prep. Zidane isn’t the worst place chance and it was a sneaky run fresh and there is good speed here to allow him to finish off.

Advice: Not much between top two. Zidane not a hopeless place chance if you can run on.

Confidence: 4/10.

Speed map: Speed looks even with Bel Diablo, Superbowl Sunday and Secret Lady all there.

Likely market trend: They could come for any of the first three or four in the market here. Roughies, like Zidane, will drift.

Selections: 9-6-5-3

9.Touch Of Mink ($6.50)- Got back and closed off well off a very strong speed fresh. Blinkers on now and will be fitter. Was well backed fresh so clearly going well. 2nd up form is good. Beaten 2.5L in a Surround one day.

6.All Too Free ($7)- QL800 of day first-up when got home well late on day hard to make ground. Chased home a smart one there. Best rating race of day. Extra trip fine, can she reproduce?

5.Adana ($7)- Missed start trial but closed off solidly. Close 2nd to Vegadaze first up last prep 1400m. 1250M? J Mac on. Few excuses last prep. Missed bob of heads before a break in weak form race

3.Zidane ($21)- Gets back from gate. QL200 of race first-up. Extra trip suits. 2nd to Connemarra second up last prep 1200m. Runs on late. Just has to give them a big start?

Other chances:

2.Metamorphic ($11)- Dry tracker- Too wet last start. Run prior OK and good first-up prior. Top 3 6 of 7 at this track. Bowman on.

12.Havin’ Fun ($7.50)- nice win two back when on right part of track. Just OK LS but wasn’t on best ground. 1400 back to 1250 taking on older horses. Beat home Manfela who has won since.

Other runners:

1.Shock Alert ($42)- Got home OK late first up but wait for further.

4.Superbowl Sunday ($13)- Good win first-up. Slowest 3 x 1100m races on day but tempo related, Upside but naturally much harder. 2nd horse LS won one from 18.

7.Bel Diablo ($21)- Led and too good latest but aided by on pace bias. This looks much tougher. Figures out of race just fair.

8.Secret Lady ($32)- Got to line OK fresh but All Too Free had her covered.Needs to improve off that but can.

10.Transmitter ($13)- Given a peach by Bowman last start and All Too Free got past her comfortably enough late. Needs to lift.

11.No Interest ($63)- Found the line well last start and 5 of 6 wins on dry ground. Just gives them a big start again here.

13. Calabasas ($42)- runs in other race?


Race 6

Overview: The two favourites, God Of Thunder and Roosevelt are likeable here returning as geldings off nice trials. The knocks are they always trial well and you are banking on the gelding operation improving them as they can both be a bit hit and miss. GOT also has a tricky gate to overcome and can be keen? Would prefer to speck the likes of Bombarding and What Could Be the place each. Bombarding wasn’t suited by a wet track fresh but has trialled well and should roll forward. What Could Be always runs a cheeky race fresh and will be closing off strongly late. He clocked the second quickest last 600m of the day behind Star Of The Seas first-up last prep. That’s decent for this.

Advice: Can speck Bombarding mainly place and What Could Be the place.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Strong tempo expected here with Clear The Beach, General Soho, Bombarding and Calabasas all handy. Do they go forward or back on GOT. Trial says back perhaps?

Likely market trend: Expect punters to come for the two favourites in God Of Thunder and Roosevelt. I expect What Could Be and Bombarding to both drift as a result and most other runners will be in a similar boat.

Selections: 1-2-3-7

1.Bombarding ($14)- Too wet first-up but two nice trials since. Drier will help. Has a good record here. Can bounce back.

2.Roosevelt ($3.60)- Gelded. Nice trial leading in behind Sylvia’s Mother. Park midfield fence and runs on.

3.What Could Be ($18)- Resuming- Good from back first-up last prep when 2nd QL600 Of day behind SOTS. Will be warming up latr. Good track hoprse.

7.God Of Thunder ($3.10)- Gelded, winkers off. Touch keen in trial but closed off very well. Always trials well. Good win furst up last prep in weaker race. Then outclassed and wide next start. Upside.

Other runners:

4.Alluvion ($109)- Well held first up and needs to lift.

5.Flash Fibian ($28)- Turned form around of late. Maybe touch short over 1000m last start but beat Travancore back in May.Runs on, just bumps into a couple of nice enough horses.

6.Calabasas ($50)- Trialled up well twice coming in. Off a long break here the query?Draws well, betting? 12 runs since last win.

8.Military Academy ($55)- Two trials both solid coming in. Won latest in good fashion. Just first up long time? Class?

9.Clear The Beach ($218)- Hard to have on what he has done lately.

10.Irish Songs ($11)- 3RD QL600 of day LS when winning Hway in good figures. Gets back here and this ahs more depth but he may have turned the corner? Always promised plenty

11.General Soho ($36)- Beat Pat’s Nipper LS who has won since. He was back to 1200m though. Not sure that’s strong enough for this?

12.Sebring Express ($60)- Just OK last few. This looks an ask.

13.Wander ($40)-Chased home a smart one fresh and then disapp latest. On back up. Winkers on.

14.Second Island ($36)- Good win first up when clocking best late splits of the day. This is harder but can run on late. All 4 x wins 1000m.

Race 7

Overview: Where to start here? Looks tough this. Silent Explorer prefers it wet but he is probably the starting point as he will be nice and handy and went too quick in front last start. Flying Pierro will run on like he normally does, McMahon got the great run through the field last start and can he get that again? Aristograts could be the one that’s overs? He finished alongside Flying Pierro last start but is double the price. Weekend Affair has each-way claims but he is hard to catch.

Advice; Toughest race of the day.

Confidence: 1/10.

Speed map: Silent Explorer should lead with Appoint Percy and Hemsted rolling forward. Speed looks even unless Silent Explorer or AP go quickly.

Likely market trend: Honestly not sure.

Selections: 1-3-4-10

1.Silent Explorer ($3.90)- Too quick in front LS and faded as a result. Mid race move prior off slow tempo and held on in weak form race (8 subs st 0 pl). J Mac on and rolls forward. Prefers it wet?

3.Flying Pierro ($5.50)- Ran on OK LS on day hard to make ground. 3 wins 1500-1600m.

4.McMahon ($5)- Beat home FP and Aristogr last start but got dream run through field as others pushed 5-6 wide turn. Gets back runs on again. Overcame slow tempo to score prior.

10.Aristograts ($7.50)- Went wide and ran on LS when beaten 3L. Knocked up a touch late. Better for that.

Other chances:

6.Stryke Rock ($23)- Slow to recover first-up forgive. Soft tickover trial since. Hard to tell how she is going but at her best she has claims!

Other runners:

2.Appoint Percy ($23)- just fair in two runs back from a spell. 3 of 6 wins at a mile but hard to have off last two starts.

5.O’Driscoll($23)- WNC and stuck on solidly LS. Beat Fuel three back. Form either side just OK?Rolls forward. 7 subs st last start 0 pl.

7.Love Waves ($35)- Well beaten in two trials. Won fup mile last prep but form either side ordinary.

9.Hemsted ($23)- Back from Sat grade but no real impact last couple of starts. Needs to improve.

11.Just Dylan ($35)- Found the line well enough fresh but I doubt that’s the right form! 7 subs st 1 pl last start and figures just fair.


** Expecting Weekend Affair to run Saturday at Rosehill.

Brad Davidson






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