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Brad Davidson preview Newcastle Aug 15

 Aug 14 2019

Newcastle

Best bet

Race 5 no.10 Vivaro $3.20

Nice soft trial leading in- She won her mdn on a S7 in decent figures last prep then she finished runner up to Wayupinthesky who was a stakeswinner next start. She started fav when disappointing in a B70 before a break. Finds a suitable race on return.

Normal strategy (15 units)

Race 5 no.10 Vivaro 15 unit win at $3.20

Results: -1056.2 units (-11.5%POT, 9136 units outlayed)).

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858.

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy (0.5 units)

Race 5 no.10 Vivaro 0.5 unit win at $3.20

Results: -12.8 units (-10% POT, 128.45 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

Quaddie numbers: (not in strategies): 10-1-7…..1,12,5…..9,2,1,8…..9-14-4-3-8-13.

R1

3-4-1-2

3.Sciconic- 7th in a Spring Champion last prep (beat home Dummy Run easily) and then got going late behind a smart one here fresh, 2nd QL200 of race. 1600m suits. Yet to race on worse soft 5. Much quicker other 1400m race on day.

4.Doctor Manhattan- Never got into the race last start but just missed in a photo prior to that. Wet form OK.

1.Hamoganay- Got back and closed off OK first up. Slow out at trials prior so probably drifts back again. Placed both runs soft and only run heavy.

2.Dummy Run- Resuming. Two soft trials leading in. Won maiden at a mile last prep. Beaten 8L only heavy run if we get there.

Others:

Geegeeaye- Got job done at Tamworth last start over 2100m. L600 of 40 sec flat concerning and back to a mile now. Yet to finish within 6L winner 4 runs on soft ground, heavy unseen.

Justice Honour- Had chance at Goulburn LS and form prior just fair.

 

R2

4-3-8-2

4.No Doubt A Star- Closed off well first-up here in race run to suit swoopers and then never in it in MM Maiden. Trialled well since then. Out of a Not A Single Doubt mare and recent trial soft 6.

3.Covert Ops- Nice trial- led and given easy time in straight.Gelded. Form around all the right horses just keeps finding one or two better. Gets another chance. Beaten .7L in city on heavy ground before.

8.History- Well beaten only start but was a strong race (3L quicker other mdn on day) and winner of mdn, Sangria goes well. Placed both trials leading into return.

2.Buckin’ Rippa- Resuming- Beat all bar Fituese here before a break- That horse won twice since and then beaten 1.5L in Gosf Guineas. Beat rest comfortably that day- No trials and time/ form out of race behind winner just fair.

Other runners

At The Helm- Had chance fresh in avg rating race- Trialled well on soft ground but yet to race on it. Loy to ride.

Rebel Bro- blinkers 1st time- Two trials this time in OK without raving about- Betting? Blinkers on latst trial 3/5 at Hawkesbury beaten .5L.

Zemdegs- Jumped midfield, pushed forward lead and win trial at Rosehill 900m. 2nd horse No Doubt A Star could have won trial- Bit keen in the trial too?

Sending Love- Runner up in two starts to date but not the strongest races- Won a Newcastle trial leading in. Has upside second racing prep.

R3

3-1-7-2

3.Ranges- Comes out of a couple of good races- First one ran in good time where winner and third horse won since (he finished second) and then beaten half a length in town in race rated 2L quicker other mdn on day. Yet to race rain affected track but finished second trial on heavy.

1.Pioneer- No match Promotions first up but beat the rest- Time was 1L quicker than Valdostana mdn off a 4L slower early fraction to 600m. Placed both runs soft. Should roll across.

7.Danaat- Solid in close finish at Goulburn on debut. Two soft trials leading in here.

2. Oakfield Navajo- Jumped well but had to go right back gate and ran on. Wins from a gate and can park a lot closer today. Just whether that’s the right form line? Figures touch soft out of race.

Other runners:

Chillichoc- Well held only run- 4 trials this time in- Won latest against small field Rhill but pushed out and soft late.

Sebring Lass- Closed off nicely to finish 5/7 recent Rosehill trial- Finds a deep race fresh.

Caudan- Got back and closed off OK first-up. Oakfield Navajo got past him late. Just query on right form?

Lady Tavista- Not far away debut Hawkesbury, then well held before a break. One soft trial leading in. By Tavistock and they love wet tracks generally

Kibibi- Made some ground first uo. Comes through qucikest of 3 x1200m races on day. Not hopless.

Pocket Missile- OK at two runs this prep at Wagga. This looks harder.

 

R4

11-4-6-7

11.Colette- Good behind a subsequent winner in Toomai two back and then tempo against bit warmed up late LS. Looking for ground-Trialled OK wet?

4.Tombstone- Found the line solidly LS in city grade and looking for ground. Slow tempo that day and did clock quickest L600 of the race. Wet?

6.Completed- Best effort yet when third behind Somnus latest. Blinkers 1st time could sharpen him up. Mdn to Cl1 now.

7. Haunting Spirit- On pacer who makes own luck. Just L200 the query against these. Still a maiden.

Other runners:

Into The Oblivion- Just going OK and not well off under set weights.

Colonnade- Ran on solidly LS at Canberra where race run to suit swoopers. Well beaten three soft/heavy runs?

Casimiro- hard to have

Haunting Spirit-

Avalaunche- Needs to lift.

Arlington Magic- Prefer others.

Onemoreforluck- Get back type who is always running on- Seems to get through conditions ok. Knockout hope.

Fluttershy- In placings at Taree last start but this has more depth (SLOW L600 there)

Tahuna- Needs to improve a bit but lightly raced.

Shortaz- Needs to lift.

R5

10-1-7-8

10.Vivaro- nice soft trial leading in- Won mdn S7 in decent fogures, then runner up Wayupinthesky who was a stakeswinner next start- Started fav when disapp B70 before break.

1.Hildalgo- Good form last prep- Won 1000m fresh- Where is he at for this? No public trials-Placed heavy/soft. Beat convinced here midway last prep and that horse won next start.

7.Mr Polar- Poor post race recov last start. Form prior was good- Win two back easily quickest 3 x 1000m races on day. Can bounce back.

8.Lagarde- Struggling to win but knocking on the door of late. This winnable race- Wet form reads OK.

Other chance:

2.Red Notice- Won three syraight then wide no cover at Wyong before a break- Resuming no trials-New stable- Beaten 12L only heavy run? Won a trial on heavy

Other runners:

Black Chilli- OK at two runs back without threatening. Has won H10.

Designer Maid- Trialled well then disapp first up. Won mdn by 5L s7. Good speed here.

I Am Magnificent- Specked at odds and just missed Tamworth- Now 1000m back to 900m but speed looks strong.

Ellie’s Encore- Sneaky run LS and got home solidly late to clock QL200 of race. Just 1100-900m. Wet should help.

Vox Populi- Won on debut and then ok behind All Cylinders- Two trials- led both and tired late to be midfield.

For Love- Couple of soft trials-For last prep ok but would need to improve a touch

Newtown Is Coming- Blinkers again- Disapp last start but does get through wet ground- Nothopeslles- Won H9.

Oakfield Gettem- Just OK last few

Quick Nick- out of form.

R6

1-12-5-3

1.Dominus- Got back and closed off OK last start in quick race. Time was 1L quicker than Valdostana mdn off a 4L slower early fraction to 600m. 1400m looks as if will suit. Only 2l away in town prior.

12.Maia Nebula- Liked the run fresh and had to go right back gate before clocking 3RD QL200 of race. Can park up closer here and has claims. 6th and 12th both won out of race and she finished 9th. Chance.

5.Bellarine- Found the line well fresh over 1200m. Won a trial on soft and this looks natural prog. Wide gate?

3. Unamerican- Got home OK fresh on a day where hard to make ground- Race was run to suit though- Extra trip should help.

Other runners:

Rusty Hawk- Two trials out the back and just fair. Betting?

Whiskey Jack- Trials just OK and would need to lift on run last prep.

Conatango- Very disap as fav LS. Run prior ok. 1400M?

Influencer- Pushed along 4th recent Rhill 1030m trial- Betting? First start Waller uyard

Lunar Rain- QL200 of the race at Wyong but was run to suit. Wide draw.

The Borough- Well bakced first-up but was disapp. Might want even further than 1400m?

Taroba- Might need further.

Bravo Del Campos- Thereabouts country grade last few. This harder.

Saturn- Need to lift.

Cross Eyed Mary- hard to have.

Seething Zonkey= prefer others

Midnight Music-prefer others.

R7

9-2-1-8

9.Enchanted Heart- Good at prov last start- 5th and 7th both won since out fo that race. Ov time just fair out of it tho.Won trial on heavy ground.

2.Two Big Fari- Good win first-up and looks on the rise- Same time as mdn on day but mdn horse won by a space! Progressing.

1.Onthewhiteturf- Classy mare resuming off two soft trials- Wins 1400m plus. Touch short?

8. Singing River- Consistent first prep. Two trials- First one runner up to Standout, latest easy enough hit out out the back but expected more when 8/9Rhill. Betting?

Other runners:

Airwing- Time 6L slower Anethole on same day and all L600.

Colesberg- Runner up recent rOSEHILL heat but slowst 1030m heat of morning. City winner heavu track early in career- Dpes he have speed necessary pver 1200m?

Entitlement- Beat subs city winner when winning two back at Mudgee Just fair latest.Rolls forward and won Nowra mdn narrowly H10.

Philantropist- Soft time on speed two back and then up sharply in trip latest and just fair. 1500 back to 1200m now.

Toe Tapper- Nice soft trial leading in- Toughest race been in but not hopeless good draw.

Bobby Dazzler- Pulled up 2/5 lame LS forgive. Run prior was OK.

Thiswilldous- Going OK of late- Won trial on H9 before and two time winner S5.Place hope

Oakfield General- Two trials- Drifted back and ran on OK. Place hope

Chicandsalade= Resuming wide gate

Adele’s Joy- prefer others.

R8

9-14-4-3

9.Get The Idea- Nice debut at big odds- 2nd horse won at Goulb since but rest of form out of race just fair. Figures OK. Nat improvement.

14.First Crown- Not far away two back then too good at Canberra- 2nd horse won since there.

4.Miss Jenny- Good two back and then held up LS in str but still disapp. Great wet record though

3.Constantine- Freshened- Form says no but he is a good wet tracker. Roughie!

Other chances:

13. Marise- Won soft trial leading in- Won mdn in slow time (8 subs st 3 pl) before a break- In the right stable to improve.

8.Duneagle- Won his mdn then slow to recov when disapp at WF SINCE.3 winners out of mdn. Out of NASD mare.

Other runners:

Nothing Too Hard- Has a decent finish on his day.Might have to give them a big start?

Speed Hero- Recent form just fair- Heavy form good but was a while ago. Didn’t run out 1900m latest.

Base Camp- Needs to lift.

 



Brad Davidson - Brad Davidson preview Newcastle Aug 15


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