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Brad Davidson preview Randwick August 24

 Aug 22 2019

Meeting: Randwick Everest Day

Best bet:

Race 5 no.1 Victorem $2.50 (rated $2.20, confidence 8/10)

Looks terribly hard to beat here. Has the best form comfortably, easily defeated Noble Boy last prep, gate 5, should be midfield and too strong late. In a Group horse and very well weighted.

Best value

Race 3 no.7 Zardoro $26 (rated $13, confidence 6/10)

Seems big odds here. Absolutely flying his past three or four runs. Strikes a tough race but overs at $26 sitting back off strong speed. Genuinely think he should have won his past 4 starts. Nice and fresh!

Other value play

Race 9 no.8 Neufbosc $19 (Rated $13, Confidence 5/10)

Looks the value in the race at $19. Had quicker last 600m and 200m than Gallic Chieftain two back in Melb and then building into race when bad check before turn and eased down in Metrop. Meets GC 2kg better off from Melbourne two back and gets blinkers on. GC is $5 and he is $19. Has to be overs.

Worth a mention

Race 4 no.5 Betcha Flying $7.50 (rated $6, confidence 6/10, ***making Special Snap a winner too)

Tricky draw but loved her fresh run around the tight Canterbury surface. Should have won here 1300m last prep and looks the one certain to eat up 1400m. Would be a really good bet from a gate but $7.50 still looks overs despite the wide draw.

Expected firmers:

Race 3 no.7 Zardoro $26 (seems a big price for a horse who should have won his past 4 starts. Should firm)

Race 5 no.1 Victorem $2.50 (heavily backed already but I reckon starts shorter)

Race 7 no.11 Arcadia Queen $4.80 (expecting her to start favourite ****although I don’t think she is entitled to be and I think she is already a bit short. I just think they’ll come for her)

 

Expected drifters:

Race 3 no.2 Burning Crown $3.30 (seems short in an open race with a stack of speed)

Race 5 no.3 Noble Boy $4.80 (reckon he is third or fourth pick personally)

Race 6 no.1 Brutal $1.85 (no knock just think he will drift a bit or at least should)

Race 8 no.1 Happy Clapper $3.10 (priced on his best which I think he is a length or two off)

Race 10 no.1 Cascadian $4.60 (poorly weighted for mine v some of the main rivals and I think he is a prep off)

 

Betting strategy

****I’ve decided to offer the two different strategies going forward. The normal strategy will be the same one I’ve been doing since August, the long game strategy will be the 100 unit betting bank idea. I understand that both strategies will suit different styles of punters, so please pick the one that suits you and gamble responsibly.

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less.

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

 

Normal strategy (90 units)

Race 3 no.7 Zardoro 10 unit win at $26

Race 4 no.5 Betcha Flying 15 unit win at $7.50

Race 4 no.7 Special Snap 5 unit win at $9.50

Race 5 no.1 Victorem 35 unit win at $2.50

Race 6 no.3 Brave Song 10 unit win at $11

Race 7 no.7 Ten Sovereigns 5 unit win at $26

Race 9 no.8 Neufbosc 10 unit win at $19

*More plays to be added Saturday morning at 8.30am + quaddie

Results: -116 units, (-2.6%, 4416 unit outlay)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy (3.5 units)

Race 3 no.7 Zardoro 0.5 unit win at $26

Race 4 no.5 Betcha Flying 0.5 unit win at $7.50

Race 4 no.7 Special Snap 0.25 unit win at $9.50

Race 5 no.1 Victorem 1.5 unit win at $2.50

Race 6 no.3 Brave Song 0.25 unit win at $11

Race 7 no.7 Ten Sovereigns 0.25 unit win at $26

Race 9 no.8 Neufbosc 0.25 unit win at $19

Results: +11.1 units (+8.5% POT, 130.8 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Rail position: True, good track.

History of track bias:                                

13/10/2018       Rwick    True      H9         Adv to be on pace here most of the day. Lanes were fine- best groudn outside fence but only a few horses went there late

15/12/2018       Rwick    True      S6-7      Fence not the place to be- 2-5 lanes and then wider later

26/01/2019       Rwick    True      G3         Pretty fair track- some races felt like fence not best but three winners day on fence. No dis to be on speed prob touch on pace but could still run on

9/03/2019         Rwick    True      G4         Pretty fair track. Out wide swooping slight advantage but could win closer in. Rained mid meeting

6/04/2019         Rwick    True      s7          Pretty fair although I don't think hard fence was great. Could make ground

7/04/2019         Rwick    TRUE     G3         Hard to make ground a lot of day but no real pattern in terms of lanes

25/05/2019       Rwick    True      g4/3      Rail was off for most of the day, lanes 3 and out best

3/08/2019         Rwick    True      H8         Very fair track

21/09/2019       Rwick    True      S7-6      Pretty fair, fence in run help r1-3 then fair, touch off rails real late but rail ok still

Assessment: Generally a pretty fair rail position but we’ve had a mixed bag lately. If anything maybe off rail a touch? With the wind factor could be on pace advantage but wind has changed direction already from Wednesday to Thursday? Monitor.

Wind: Moderate to strong WSW predicted. Tail wind in home straight. Advantage on pace?

 

Race 1

Overview: Hard to go past Postcode and he should have gone close to winning the Breeders’ Plate on debut. I loved the way he picked himself up after being held up down the straight and the overall time was quicker than the Gimcrack on the day. If there is a danger, it could be Tommy Gold. I loved his trial coming in and there was plenty to like about the strength he showed through the line. Circularity gets the blinkers on but I doubt he can bridge back the margin on Postcode.

Advice: Postcode looks hard to beat. Hopefully he drifts to become a bet on race day.

Confidence: 8/10.

Speed map: Circularity, Murungal and Tommy Gold should roll forward with Postcode just behind them. Speed looks genuine.

Likely market trend: Fav should be rock solid in betting. Time Is Precious a big firmer already? Could continue.

Selections: 1-8-10-2

1. Postcode ($1.9): Picks himself in the opener. Held up but found the line really well fresh and should have gone closer. Boys went quicker than the girls on the day and maps to be in first few. Race experience a tick and looks hard to beat.

8. Tommy Gold ($10.8): Nice soft trial coming in. Liked his strength through the line. Showed speed and should run well.

10. Time Is Precious ($12.3)- Has been really well supported in early markets so respecting that move! Trial was nice enough in solid time. 

2. Circularity ($12): Up on speed and no match for Postcode on debut. Blinkers on and comes through good rating race + experience but doubt he can turn table on top pick.

Other chance:

5. Gravina ($17.4): Pushed along in trial but from strong yard and blinkers on race day. Market?

4. Endorse ($17.4): Two trials, pushed along and closed off behind Tommy Gold first. Given easy time in quick heat latest. Market?

Other runners:

3. Eastern Wind ($44), 6. Murungal ($24.9), 7. Prime Star ($24.9), 9. Diamond Kat ($44),

 

Race 2

Overview: I like the look of Johnny Vinko here and he comes into this race ready to peak. He went as well as he possibly could last time out on the Kensington track in a race where they went ridiculously slow. His last 200m of 11.01s was the quickest of the day and that tells the story. The 2000m on a big track suits. Humboldt Current comes through stronger lead up races but was a bit disappointing last start. He gets his chance here though. Lady Cuvee and Duchess Of Lennox can both run on late and the latter might prefer wet tracks but is better than what she showed last start. Nash Rawiller sticks with Angel Of Heaven over Fastnet Cyclone and Maid Of Ore and that must be respected. Third up at 2000m should suit her.

Advice: Johnny Vinko on top.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Maid Of Ore, Ingeegoodbe and Fastnet Cyclone perhaps look the three on speed runners. Speed looks below average. Humboldt Current and Johnny Vinko (if he jumps) should be midfield.

Likely market trend: No real opinion.

Selections: 7-2-3-6

7. Johnny Vinko ($5): First two runs this prep crackers and then got back off dawdling speed and clearly best late split late 1800m LS. 11.01 last 200 was quickest of day. Step to 2000m key, just wants tempo. Big track suits as does Avdulla on.

2. Humbolt Current ($4.1): Comes through stronger races in lead up but had chance on speed latest and disappointing. Shock Alert and he gapped the rest two back. Can be a bit keen?

3. Angel Of Heaven ($5.8): Got home OK off slow tempo LS and third up at 2000m suits. Nash rides over Fastne Cyclone and Maid Of Ore

6. Lady Cuvee ($12.4): Best late splits off slow tempo two back when run as good as Rapiddo Chaparro. Then a bit disappointing latest at Warwick Farm. Bowman replaced B Ryan.

Other chances:

9. Duchess Of Lennox ($7): Should have won first-up in race with Master Of Wine in it, second up tight track was against and then disapp third up but drops 6kg here and must respect SP. Does she prefer more give in track?

4. Maid Of Ore ($10.6): Soft time on speed last start and on trial at the trip but a win wouldn’t be a total surprise.

10. Fastnet Cyclone ($30): Looking for 2000m, class just the query. Place hope perhaps.

Other runners:

1. Ingeegoodbe ($302), 5. Super Tycoon ($151), 8. Miss Moana ($25),

 

Race 3

Overview: I reckon the $26 about Zardoro looks a good gamble and he has been absolutely flying of late. You can genuinely make a case that he should have won his past four starts and he should be thereabouts in a tough Highway. Plonka is the horse to beat and she was held up before getting there just in time in a Class 1 last start. She was disappointing fresh but in a really strong Class 3 that has produced three subsequent winners. Her run in a Highway race last prep when second (after being three wide without cover) was a cracker. Feel The Knight can bounce back after being found to be lame first-up, while Irish Songs will run on. I'm against the favourite Burning Crown who looks far too short considering the strong pace expected.

Advice: Zardoro the value at $26.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Plenty of speed! Screen Shot, Burning Crown, Gumshoe, Can’t Find Snippy, Elegant Ellen, Feel The Knight and Art Of Dance all have speed. Very fast tempo expected.

Likely market trend: Could come for a host of runners but I expect Zardoro to start shorter than $26.

Selections: 7-14-13-3

7. Zardoro ($13.1): Seems big odds here. Absolutely fying his past three or four runs. Strikes a tough race but overs at $26 sitting back off strong speed.

14. Plonka ($5.5): Held up but got out just in time to score in Class 1 grade last start in fair time. Disapp first-up in Class 3 in Brisbane but the race rated very highly and there has been three winners out of it already. 3 wide no cover when second in a Highway race in town last prep. The horse to beat.

13. Feel The Knight ($13.1): Wet track against fresh when in the market and also pulled up 2/5 lame. Trialled well prior where second and third have both won since. Can she bounce back?

3. Irish Songs ($9.3): Bit disapp last start but no luck prior in a strong race where got home nicely. At his best, he would give this a shake.

Against:

2. Burning Crown ($6.5): Seems skinny here at $3.30. While he was solid last start in benchmark grade they didn’t go as hard as it looked and he was beaten fresh as well. Just think he has been overplayed right through his career and he has plenty (I mean plenty) of company on speed here. Looks the risk of the day at $3.30.

Other chances:

11. Lady Demi ($13.1): Seems big odds here. Always runs well in Highways (been unlucky a few times too!).

8. Gumshoe ($11.3): Blinkers on- Tough on pacer. Just not sure race shape is right but has to be in the mix. Won a Hway (on wet ground) first-up last prep.

Other runners:

1. Can't Find Snippy ($26.5), 4. Equal Balance ($40.2), 5. Gundy ($53.6), 6. Screen Shot ($26.5), 9. Hit The Target ($32.1), 10. The Drake ($40.2),. Acquittal ($26.5), 15. Art Of Dance ($80.3), 16. Elegant Ellen ($80.3).

 

 

 

Race 4

Overview: I want to be with Betcha Flying despite the wide draw and she looks the one certain to eat up 1400m. I would have been more confident from a good gate as she will give them a start now but she will be strong late and she should have won at this track over 1300m last prep. Special Snap was caught three wide without cover fresh and never shirked the task. She should roll forward and prove hard to catch. Still Single and Avon River are the other two with winning claims for mine.

Advice: Betcha Flying to win, can have something on Special Snap too.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Special Snap should lead while Maddi Rocks (forward?) and Charleise should be handy. Speed looks even.

Likely market trend: No real opinion.

Selections: 5-7-4-1

5. Betcha Flying ($6): Tricky draw but loved her fresh run around the tight Canterbury surface. Should have won here 1300m last prep and looks the one certain to eat up 1400m. Would be a good bet from a gate but $7.50 still looks overs.

7. Special Snap ($7.50):3WNC (only one turn though) on strong speed last start at Warwick Farm and kept fighting. 1400m a ? but it is with most of these. Rolls forward and runs well.

4. Still Single ($5.2): Overcame a slow tempo to beat moderate opposition fresh. 1400m a query naturally (especially up from 1100m) but she looks classy.

1. Avon River ($7.1): Sat just off speed and found the line well to score last start on the Kenso. Hasn’t had a great prep luck wise and is the proven one at 1400,.

Other chances:

3. Maddi Rocks ($8.5):Didn’t really get through the wet last start. Does she run 1400m? If she does, she is right in this as she has strong form lines for a race of this nature. 

10. Akari ($7.5): Only just got there last start but scope to improve up to 1400m. Well found all the same.

Other runners:

2. Mayaaseh ($32.6), 6. Aesop's Fable ($19), 12. Palurien ($33)

 

Race 5

Overview: Even luck and Victorem should be winning this. He has been heavily backed this week but I doubt he will drift on the weekend. He is a Group horse and looks well weighted. Just needs the breaks on the turn to win. Handle The Truth should have won first-up in town and he is a horse that just keeps improving. He might find Victorem a bit slick but he is second pick. Notation gets the blinkers on again and while 1200m is a bit short of her best, she just never runs a bad race. Noble Boy has trialled well but against maiden opposition (not reading much into it). He is a chance but I prefer him on wet ground and he looks under the odds for mine at $4.80.

Advice: Victorem to win.

Confidence: 8/10

Speed map: Star Boy will want the front with Notation and Handle The Truth both there. Speed should be even.

Likely market trend: I reckon Victorem starts shorter than the $2.50 he is now.

Selections: 1-8-12-3

1. Victorem ($2.2): Looks terribly hard to beat here. Has the best form comfortably, easily defeated Noble Boy last prep, gate 5, should be midfield and too strong late. In a Group horse and very well weighted.

8. Handle The Truth ($8.2): No luck fresh and probably should have won. Makes his own luck on speed. Just keeps improving!

12. Notation ($13.9): blinkers again- Had a really good prep but been up a while? Tough as they come. WNC two back and very brave and then another good run in stakes company latest. 1200m a touch short?

3. Noble Boy ($12): Nice horse and won the Country Champs in autumn in a canter. Would have preferred it wet for mine. Trial was good leading in but was up against maiden horses so expect him to do that. Too short for mine in betting.

Other runners:

2. Belflyer ($26.2), 4. Don't Give A Damn ($21), 5. Bobbing ($21), 6. Tarbert ($30), 7. Suncraze ($70.6), 9. Star Boy ($53), 10. Up Trumpz ($70.6), 11. Awesome Pluck ($21), 13. Press Box ($211.8), 14. Luna Mia ($211.8).

 

Race 6

Overview: Brutal is the horse to beat but I can’t get him as short as $1.85 and I think there is a bit of value around him. Brave Song was a touch disappointing fresh but he was held up and I think he will be better suited the Sydney way of going on a bigger track. He is right up to these. Fiesta interest me. She flies fresh and I would have just liked to have seen another trial and her relax a bit better in her only trial. If Chris Waller has her right though, she can definitely give this a shake at big odds. Champagne Cuddles (back to 1200m?) with the blinkers on and Easy Eddie (run was fine fresh off a dawdling speed) are both capable as well. No knock on Brutal and he is the horse to beat but he could be looking for further now? Can easily win but happy to be around at the odds-on quote.

Advice: Brave Song the value.

Confidence: 5/10

Speed map: Speed looks solid with Home Of The Brave, Sandbar, Jonker (blinkers off), Easy Eddie and potentially Dothraki up there.

Likely market trend: Brutal should get out a touch?

Selections: 3-1-13-12

3. Brave Song ($8.6): Form in the winter was outstanding and I expected more fresh at Caulfield but he was held up and found the line OK in a good rating race. He trialled well prior and will be strong late here

1. Brutal ($2.4): Good win fresh but I don’t want to take $1.85 personally. Couple of queries- Does he want further now? The other is the race was tailor made for him fresh and he is the horse to beat for sure but I can’t dive in.

13. Fiesta ($16): I wish she wasn’t so keen in her trial and if not I would be really keen on her here. I just would have loved to have seen another trial and her settle a touch better in her trial but she is at a good price still. Great fresh record and win first-up last prep was in super figures.

12. Champagne Cuddles ($11.1): Blinkers again.Tempo and track bias against first two runs. Back to

Other chances:

5. Easy Eddie ($14.3): His run was fine fresh off a very slow tempo and he sprinted home as well as he could. Generally improves throughout his prep. I just prefer him on wet ground at this level.

Other runners:

2. Home Of The Brave ($16.7), 4. Dothraki ($40.9), 6. Deprive ($33.7), 7. Kaspersky ($408.5), 8. Redouble ($14.3), 9. Jonker ($102.1), 10. Sir Plush ($102.1), 11. Sandbar ($102.1),

 

 

Race 7

Overview: Great edition of the The Everest this year and I think there are five winning chances: Pierata, Ten Sovereigns, Santa Ana Lane, Yes Yes Yes and Arcadia Queen. I have to lean the way of Pierata and he has just gone to a new level this campaign. His late splits have been very impressive and he should be midfield the fence here and hard to hold out. I reckon Ten Sovereigns has been totally disregarded here. His Timeform rating is right there with Pierata and his July Cup win was very, very good. I don’t mind the gate for him to roll across and if he turns up in top form, he is in this at big odds. I had Santa Ana Lane on top before the barrier draw but I’m concerned about him being right back in the field on the fence. He is a star and with luck will be surging late and hard to hold out. There are a lot of differing opinions on the three-year-olds but they keep running time and for that reason Yes Yes Yes has to be in the mix for mine. He is a better horse than Graff and Tulip who have both run well in this race as three-year-olds. Arcadia Queen is the best horse in Australia if she wins this. She could well be a freak but she will start favourite because of that reason. No knock at all.

Advice: Pierata on top but wait to bet as I’m confident he will drift race day. Ten Sovereigns looks the bet for me at big odds.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Speed looks genuine enough with Nature Strip, Redzel and Ten Sovereigns perhaps up there. Every horse should get their chance.

Likely market trend: Expecting Arcadia Queen to start favourite due to the unknown factor of just how good she is. Santa Ana Lane will be popular but I expect Pierata to drift.

Selections:

2. Pierata ($5.3): I like the draw for him because I think he can park up closer here and I reckon they will be spreading out a touch anyway. Broke the clock fresh (10.88 home L200 clearly quickest of the day) then sat off slow speed and too good on wet latest. Gone to a new level this spring and I reckon he is the one in the market that drifts and gets out to a really good price.

7. Ten Sovereigns ($12.8): Looks the forgotten runner in the race for mine. Seems a bit hit and miss and there is the acclimatisation factor too but the facts are his Timeform rating is equal to Pierata and only Santa Ana Lane has a higher Timeform rating in race. That tells me at his best he is right in this and several international experts how told me the wide gate is ideal to allow him to build into race. Simply shunned by the local market (out of sight out of mind), his July Cup win was huge in strong time, 1000m too short latest and he gets his preferred dry ground. Either shakes the life out of this or puts in a shocker but at $31 he has to be a bet.

1. Santa Ana Lane ($5.8): I’m a big fan and his TJ win here in the autumn was simply brilliant and it was second up too. My knock is the gate, I really think he is the big loser from the barrier draw. I can see him 4 or 5 back on the fence and he will need luck. If he gets it, he is a terrific chance but he is short enough with that in mind. Good track suits, speed suits, second up record is great. He can only run well.

12. Yes Yes Yes ($8.2): You either rate the three-year-olds this year or you don’t and that will decide what you think of this horse’s prospects. I’m a big times man so I have to as the three-year-olds have been running better time than the older horses in Sydney time and time again this spring. Take a look at her Arcadia Queen’s last 600m figures v Yes Yes Yes at Rosehill on September 14 for example:

Arcadia Queen: 33.56 L600, 22.48 L400, 11.6 L200.

Yes Yes Yes: 33.06 L600, 22.04 L600, 11.28 L200.

Sure, Yes Yes Yes raced over 1200m and the tempo was a little bit slower than Arcadia Queen’s race but he still went some 2L quicker the last 600m than her (she was eased down so maybe 1.5L would be accurate). Add in the fact he drops 4.5kg in weight from that day where Arcadia Queen will carry .5kg more and you can make a real case for him. His run since then in the Golden Rose was strong where he probably didn’t see out 1400m. Back To 1200m, blinkers on, can only see him running well.       

Other chance:

11. Arcadia Queen ($6.3): Expect her to start favourite as is the boom on her. I can’t knock her as a horse. She could well be the best horse in Australia and her first-up win was dynamic, the trial since was super and her track gallop during the week was very sharp. I just have to be against her simply from a price perspective. The fact remains she was on the best part of the track first-up and her sectionals while impressive, weren’t for mine as much of a standout as others suggested.

Other runners (in order of price):

9. Sunlight ($14.7): Did beat Santa Ana Lane last start and maps to be just behind the speed here. She as tough as they come but I would be surprised if she could hold some of these off. Place chance for money.

10.In Her Time ($19.3): Nice trial behind Redzel and her fresh record is strong. Might be a case of out of sight out of mind but I reckon she is more a place hope here. Soft draw helps.

3. Redzel ($24.2): What a ripper he is. Won this race the last two years and peaks on this day. I could be wrong and he has proved so many people wrong so many times in the past but I can’t have him this year. On pace bias helped him win first-up and then he was disappointing second up. Jury is still out for mine if he is at his best. Would be a great story if he won but I can’t see it happening.

6. Classique Legend ($24.2): Always been a huge fan of his and I reckon in 12 months he is going to make a lovely horse. I’ve never seen a horse with a better stride (Alizee also has a beautiful stride). My knock is it could be too soon and I’ve watched his replays and I’m concerned about his last 100m in most of his races. He seems to peak on his runs late (not just last start) and I think that’s a big issue here.

8. Alizee ($32.2): Talented mare but I think she is well found here. Won fresh but in poor figures (slower than benchmark races on day) and then had best closing splits in Memsie but they went hard and she finished alongside So Si Bon who has been well held in two runs since and would be 150-1 here. Likes Randwick and has a beautiful stride on her but I don’t think she is going well enough.

5. Trekking ($39): Didn’t seem to like the Valley and then won the Schillachi in strongest L600,400 of day to book ticket into Everest. Won a fair Stradbroke in winter. Again doubt he can win but can run top 6.

4. Nature Strip ($65): Wasn’t anywhere near as impressed as others with his G1 win last start where for mine he scrambled home. Remains a big risk at 1200m and would be surprised if he was in the finish.

 

Race 8

Overview: Tough race. What you see is what you get with Samadoubt. He has just gone to a whole new level this prep and he will roll along in front and be hard to run down. Stampede should park outside Samadoubt and he is just a very tough on pace galloper. Back to 2000m, he can run a cheeky race here. Danzdanzdance could be the big improver in her first run for Chris Waller. She is better suited on wet ground but has trialled well since the last start failure. Life Less Ordinary third up profiles well, while Happy Clapper is always a chance but is short enough for mine in this race.

Advice: Leaning to Samadoubt but no confidence here.

Confidence: 5/10

Speed map: They should roll along but to what degree all depends on whether Samadoubt and Stampede take each other on or are happy to control tempo.

Likely market trend: Happy Clapper should get out. Looks too short at $3.10.

Selections: 2-4-9-1

2. Samadoubt ($3.7): Gone to a new level this prep. Just caught by Verry Eleegant last start and had Happy Claopper covered prior. Might have company on speed re Stampede but reckon he leads and is hard to catch.

4. Stampede ($6.3): Back to 2000- Just got tired late in Metrop but did go along at a good tempo on speed. Beat all bar FInche at this journey earlier this prep. Tough on pace.

9. Danzdanzdance ($8): Too bad to be trie last starr. Now with Chris Waller. First run for new stable. Trialled well. Clearly better wet tracker but capable here.

1. Happy Clapper ($5.3): Seems a bit short at $3. Just fair last start for mine and I reckon he is just a length or two off his best. Think he will drift.

Other chances:

3. Life Less Ordinary ($7): Did enough second up. Probably prefers sting out but can only run well. Held by Samadoubt last start but could be a little more tempo here.

Other runners:

5. Tally ($19), 7. The Candy Man ($25), 8. Harper's Choice ($57).

Race 9

Overview: I think the market has overreacted here with Neufbosc. His run was just as good as Gallic Chieftain’s two back in Melbourne and then he copped a nasty check last start and was put out of the race. He stays, gets the blinkers on and at $20 looks the bet in the race. Youngstar was a bit disappointing last start but she just looks a really dour stayer these days. She should come into her own over a trip like this. Come Play With Me won the Metrop and he is just a ripper. I think he has more of an advantage over most of his rivals on wet ground but he still goes well on good tracks. Patrick Erin was great in the Metrop and he can figure here as well. I know he started $101 there but that was only because of the start prior where he failed but pulled up with cardiac arrythmia.

Advice: Neufbosc the value.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Speed looks genuine enough with Hush Writer, Master Of Arts and Valac prominent.

Likely market trend: They’ll back a few here.

Selections: 8-6-1-3

8. Neufbosc ($13.2): Looks the value in the race at $19. Had quicker last 600m and 200m than Gallic Chieftain two back in Melb and then building into race when bad check before turn and eased down in Metrop. Meets GC 2kg better off from Melbourne two back and gets blinkers on. GC is $5 and he is $23. Has to be overs.

6. Youngstar ($8.8): Expected a little bit more last start biut all her runs on good ground have been good this prep. Reckon she is a dour stayer now and gets her chance to prove it. 6th in Melb Cup last year, doubt she is going as well but respect up to 2600m.

1. Come Play With Me ($4.9): Deserved favourite. Hard to knock. He has been a marvel since arriving from Perth. Maybe has a bigger edge v rivals wet but capable dry too. Goes back runs on.

3. Gallic Chieftain ($6.8): Brave in Metrop and looks home there. Won 2600m this track last prep. Reckon he has more edge v rivals soft ground? Blinkers off? Chance but well enough found at $5 considering SP was $18 last start.

Other chances:

2. Patrick Erin ($13.2): Cardiac arrythmia two back and then silly odds in Metrop where his finish was about .5L off Big Duke who goes around in Caulfield Cup. JMac on, 2600m should be no issue. Runss well.

4. Sir Charles Road ($11.3): Maps perfectly, 2600m should be fine and best of on pacers in Metrop in strong run race.

Other runners:

5. Carzoff ($20), 9. Hush Writer ($20), 10. Master Of Arts ($81), 11. Valac ($16), 12. Our Century ($22.8), 13. Azuro ($16), 14. Carif ($80.7).

Race 10:

Overview: There’s not much between a few of these. Junipal was wide without cover in an Epsom and his form prior reads well for a race like this. Articus has really turned the corner of late and he beat Scarlet Dream two back and then was a brave second in the Cameron at Newcastle after being caught wide without cover. Dealmaker runs on late and will be hard to hold out, while I like the way My Nordic Hero has trialled leading in and he can run a cheeky race here at big odds.

Advice: Junipal the horse to beat but My Nordic Hero could start huge odds here and is a genuine chance.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Tempo looks slow here with Penske really the only leader.

Likely market trend: No real opinion.

Selections: 12-6-11-2

12. Junipal ($4.6): Wide no cover in Epsom forgive. Form prior to that thus prep was super and has the speed to find a midfield spot here. Meets Cascadian some 7.5kg better off from the Epsom.

6. Articus ($7.8): Going really well his past couple. Beat Scarlet Dream two back and then wide no cover in strong Cameron and stuck on to beat all bar Rock. Form ties in with Nettoyer third winning since and running well in Epsom. Rolls forward.

11. Dealmaker ($5): Been going well all prep and finally got a gate to sit closer last start. Beaten 3.5L by Junipal two back but gate cost him that day and his late splits were slightly quicker than Junipal’s. Good track suits him better than soft for mine despite record suggesting otherwise.

2. My Nordic Hero ($21.1): Liked his trials and he can run a race fresh. Gets back and apprentice on but good track suits and I wouldn’t be surprised if he closes off. $35 looks overs.

Other chances:

10. Penske ($9.8): Going OK this prep without raving about but does map to get a soft lead here. Should get every chance.

Against:

1.Cascadian ($11.1): Has been a bit overplayed this prep for mine. Reckon he is a prep off. Up 9.5kg from Epsom where he was OK. Just not sure he can give big weight swing to Junipal etc. Looks unders at $4.60.

Other runners:

3. Abdon ($42.5), 4. Le Juge ($170), 5. The Lord Mayor ($21), 7. Emperor's Way ($28), 9. Seaburge ($42.5), 13. Ranier ($12.8).



Brad Davidson - Brad Davidson preview Randwick August 24


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