Advertisement
TAB.com.au | Sky Racing | Sky Sports Radio

Back to Expert Comment

Brad Davidson preview Warwick Farm August 28

 Aug 27 2019

*** Prices in strategies are TAB Fixed Odds prices from when email was sent on Tuesday afternoon around 5.30pm. Deductions apply**

Warwick Farm

Best at odds

Race 2 no.12 Palurien $5.50

Race 6 no.5 King Hewitt ($8-$5- hoping he will get back out- playing tote).

Best roughie

Race 7 No.9 Zidane $26 and $7

 

Betting strategies

Normal strategy (115 units)

Race 2 no.12 Palurien 20 unit win at $5.50

Race 2 no.13 Parche 5 unit win at $14

Race 3 no.8 Full Recognition 20 unit win at $3.30

Race 5 no.3 Irish Songs 15 unit win at $7

Race 6 no.5 King Hewitt 15 unit win tote

Race 7 no.9 Zidane 5 unit win at $26 and 10 unit place at $7

Race 7 no.10 Showminder 5 unit win at $18

10 unit place multi ($6.21)- Race 2 no.12 Palurien to place ($2.30) into Race 6 no.5 King Hewitt to place ($2.70)

10 unit main quaddie (starts r4, 8.33%): 1st leg: 10,6,1,4,8,5. 2nd leg: 3,5,7,12. 3rd leg: 5. 4th leg: 9,2,16,10,4. 

Results: -72.4 units, -2%POT, 3461 unit outlay)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy (3.4 units)

Race 2 no.12 Palurien 0.75 unit win at $5.50

Race 2 no.13 Parche 0.2 unit win at $14

Race 3 no.8 Full Recognition 0.75 unit win at $3.30

Race 5 no.3 Irish Songs 0.5 unit win at $7

Race 6 no.5 King Hewitt 0.5 unit win tote

Race 7 no.9 Zidane 0.2 unit win at $26 and 0.3 unit place at $7

Race 7 no.10 Showminder 0.2 unit win at $18

Results: +7 units, (+6.8%POT, 103.3 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Track: Good track expected? (Rain overnight any chance?). Rail out 5m.

History:

Track bias            F2           F3           F4           F5           F6           F7           F8           F9

11/04/2018         WF         5              g4           Pretty even track really. Hard fence later in day not place to be as they got wider but OK early on. Could run on. Tempo related       

17/04/2019         WF         5M         G4          Fence and first two lanes advantage and on pace, hard to make ground out wide    

29/05/2019         WF         5m          G4          Fair track

Assessment: Seems to be pretty fair although if wet plays off fence (rail 5M counteracts that somewhat).

Wind: Light.

 

Race 1

Overview: Not a race I have a firm opinion on. Smart Consort has been well backed early doors but missed the start in the trial and was keen. Leaning to Fiery Red as the horse to beat. He has had three trials this time back and only has to take natural improvement to be competitive.

Advice: Leaning to Fiery Red.

Confidence: 3/10.

Speed map: Fiery Red should lead. Get Hitched, Tungsten Bay and Smart Consort (if he jumps) roll forward.

Likely market trend: No comment.

Selections: 2-6-5-1

2.Fiery Red ($3.80)- Started fav in a Breeders Plate, disapp last prep off good trials. Had three nice trials this time back—latest won weollk over 1050- last 600 of 34.17 was slick off a slow early tempio. Jumps to front, has he turned corner?

6.Smart Consort ($4.20)- Slow out, puilled way to front and eased down late fourth in recent trial (just behind Quantico under less pressure). Beat Cosmic Force fair and square in trial last prep. Long break, 1 trial?

5.Quanitco ($9)- two trials= firs tone well held behind quick Cardiff. Second one, got back and closed off well. L600 slowish but overall time trial 1.4s quicker F Red on day (diff shapes).

1.Lubuk ($12)- Blinkers off gelded, Got back and keen in trial with blinkers- they come off. Second half of field but can close off on day,.  2nd to Exhillarates early days

Other chance:

12.Get Hitched ($9)= Blinkers 1st time. Well backed and disappointing fresh but windy day at KG and could have had impact? Mo’s Crown example of that. Can she bounce back?

Other runners:

3.Grand Piano ($18)- Gelded- Hit line well first up but entitled too way race was run (slowish L600). Hit line well recent trial behind Faretti in strong L600. Runs on.

4.No Doubt A Star ($25)- Settled last field of 3 in recent trial. Closed off well to score. Slow overall heat byt 33.5l600 solid. 2nd horse beaten 6L Hawkes mdn only start, third horse unraced.

7.Tungsten Bay ($12)- Drifted back recent trial and then closed off well late under no pressure- 35.8L600 was slow on day though so entitled too.

11.Zedward ($82)- Won first trial WF I very slow time, then pushed along to run 4th latest trial WF in heat which produced slowest l600 of fday. Against.

 

Race 2

Overview: I thought Hulk was a false favourite here and he had every chance first-up and this looks harder. I love the way Palurien has trialled leading into this. The last 600m was slick and the run on debut was good at Canterbury. I’ve also been taken with the trials of Parche and she wasn’t far off Splendid Surprise and then trialled almost as well as subsequent winner Darling Point last start. They’re the two for me.

Advice: Palurien main bet, something small on Parche at $15 as well.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Speed looks even with Our Bellagio Miss, Hulk, Highbury, andJust Thinkin’ all up there.

Likely market trend: Expecting Palurien to start favourite but I could be wrong here.

Selections: 12-13-1-7

12.Palurein ($3.80)- Got back closed off really well on debut v went to line with Saigon, Loved the trial this time in. L6000 of 32.9 was quickest of session.

13.Parche ($9)- Like the way she has found the line at past two trials. Not far off Splendid Surprise two back, then taking ground off subs winner Darling Point latest in slow time Runs on.

1.Hulk ($4)- Had every possible last start and just missed- Not sure that was strongest maiden but gets cance again. That was first run as gelding. 1st and 3rd first starters.

7.Just Thinkin’ ($8)- Gelded- Trialled well before last prep but just fair. Two trials solid but trialled solidly coming into first prep? Brandenburg beat him in first trial/

Other runners:

4.Highbury ($98)- Not quick out of gates but likely to muster. Hard to have off three trials.

5.Kirro ($33)- Well held first trial WF in quick time, then closed off wsecond trial over 1200m. Further perhaps?

6.Bungalow Bill ($99)- Gelded. Two trials just fair and well held only run.

8.Lando Bay ($25)- Well held only run last prep. Beaten a fair bit by Brandbenburg first trial but not asked effort. Won latest in slowest 1050m heat of day at Randwick./

9.Persan ($39)=- Hit line well enough two trials. Runs on but probably needs further.

10.Fling- Scratched. Complete forgive fresh- made an unusual respiratory noise on pulling up. Added the filly may not have handled the synthetic track.A post-race vet exam rev no abs. Tnr subsequently advised filly was showing signs of being in season following the event. Form around Dalasan, Truly Discreet last prep reads well! Can bounce back.

11.Our Bellagio Miss ($19)- Comes out of a weak rating race fresh then ran a cheeky race second up. Querying that form line a touch.

14.St Covet’s Spirit ($25)- Closed off well two trials to date this prep. Showed ability first prep (good run behind Wayupinthesky). Trialled better this time in.

15.Todwick ($32)- Found the line well enough first up in what may not be best form race? This looks to have more depth.

17.Seporto ($98)- Ran on OK two runs back but this looks to have more depth.

 

Race 3

Overview: Looks a race in two on paper and I thought the gap between Full Recognition and Erno shouln’t be as large as it is. Happy to lean the way of FR as a result. Dio D’Oro comes into it if the track is genuinely soft.

Advice: Full Recognition to win.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Erno and Coolotta look the two leaders with Full Recognition right there as well.

Likely market trend: Expect the gap between Erno and Full Recognition to get closer than $1.90 and $3.50.

Selections: 8-7-1-3

8.Full Recognition ($2.60)= Blinkers off. Two trials- nice one first one behind He’s Super Lucky 2nd in good town, shaken up a touch second one and closed off behind Royal Witness. Chase home subs winner Green Aoen and then won in soft figures/ weak form race Newc. Went to town, led and knocked up there before a break.Trav too strongly? Should run well.

7.Erno ($2.90)- They overdid it before a break and still stuck on well while other leader punctured. Two back good win when 6TH QL200 of day after leading. Beat Sea Of Life there who was 3rd to P Fawaz/ Reloaded. Overall form from race just fair. Two trials- shaken up latest on the Beaumont track and won.

1.Dio D’oro ($13)- Freshened. 8th/9 recent trial at Rhill 900m. Slick L600 for trial but pushed along. Found the line well enough Sat races before freshen. Wetter the better. Form last two races poor. More 400 days since last win now.

3.Coolotta ($20)- Tired late first-up off a long break. Fitter but may need another? Class? 406 DLW.

Other runners:

2.Cape Wickham ($17)- Resuming. Soft enough trial Hawkesbury in good heat.Won first up 1200m last prep at Ncle in race run to suit. Runs on.

4.Kaecilius ($15)- First trial too short well back over 730m. 2nd trial 1200m good second to subs Newc winner under little pressure. Too short here?

5.Hurricane Harbour ($42)- Trials OK. Should have placed first up last prep at Canberra 1200m but weaer Race than this. Runs on but rough place hope. Better over further later.

6.Sedition ($16)- 35 Days between runs. Wide last start but just fair. Just OK two runs back. Been a while since last win. 12 runs since last win.

9.Sugar Bay Leonard ($210)- Hard to have.

Race 4

Overview: Open race. I thought the early favourite Dance Hall Girl was unders coming off a big maiden win last prep where she ran OK time but beat little. The stable have a 9 per cent strike rate with first up runners (9/99) in the last three years. I can make a case for several at odds here. Bring The Magic can sprint well fresh here and her first-up run last prep was strong for this. Lisdoonvarna is the best horse here but is she ready first-up off a long break? The stable aren’t renowned to get them ready fresh but she has accounted for two of the stable’s three first-up winners in last three years. Dunbrody Power was really good from the back last start and has claims, while Josephine Sea is over the odds and Making Whoppee has claims too. Against Dance Hall Girl and Sausedge.

Advice: Very tough. 1,5,6,8,10 all chances at odds.

Confidence: 2/10.

Speed map: Speed looks strong with Mistress Mouse, Making Whoppee, Moccasin Miss, Dance Hall Girl and Secret Lady all up there,

Likely market trend: Expect Dance Hall Girl to drift.

Selections: 10-6-1-4

10.Dubrody Power ($7)- Just ran out of room last start when savaged the line. Now gate 13 but had better of Intrepadacious and Transmitter LS. 1200m looks liogical. Only one turn here,

6.Bring The Magic ($9)- Soft trial coming in. Was good frwesh over 1200m last time in Gosford where only Military Zone had quivcker last 200m on day. Runs on late. Speed helps.

1.Lisdoonvarna ($10)- Long break- two nice trials. Sting out of trac will help. 61kg the leveller. Stable not renowned first up. 3 winners 51 first up runners last 3 years but this mare accounts for two of those. OK fresh in stronger race lfirst up last prep.

4.Transmitter ($7)- Had chance last few bu not far away in blanket finish here latest. Has the 60kg. Runs well but had a few chances?

Other chances:

2.Hibiuscus Lady ($12)= Won at Gosford first up and then 2nd 900m Newcastle. Led and caight late only run 1200m last prep.

5.Jospehine Sea ($23)- QL200 of race first up and can park closer from gate. All 3 wins on soft 5s., Back Sat grade.

7.Intrepadacious ($14)- Good mdn win then had every chanbce LS where Dunbrody Power got past her late. J Mac goes aboard which is a huge plus. 1200m for first time.

8.Making Whoppee ($11)= Norton bit first time. Beat a subs winner first up and then settled better and just OK on Kenso last start but good rating race. 1200 niow.

12.Dance Hall Girl ($8)- Found line well fresh Walcha and then far too good maiden in decent enough figures. Beat nothing there though- second horse stll a maiden now adter 9 starst.

9.Sausedge ($17)- Good record and won 3 from 5 iuncluding Canberra Guineas last prep (was a very weak edition though)-. Woulde need to have improved. No trials?

Other runners:

15.Mistress Mouse ($27)- Just OK when well beaten by Hightail recent trial. Won well last start but had the favours and overall figures were soft.

 

Race 5

Overview: Happy to be with Irish Songs and I loved the way he found the line last start in a stronger race. He gets back again but I reckon 1100m is his go now. Lanigera and Up Trumpz both have claims but seem well enough found, while He’s Super Lucky and Accelerato run well at odd. Vincero can pull out a run fresh.

Advice: Irish Songs to win.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Good speed here with Wanna Get A What, The Pharoah and Lanigera all up there.

Likely market trend: I think Lanigera should drift from $3 but whether he does or not is another thing.

Selections: 3-5-7-12

3.Irish Songs ($5.50)- Inquiry into ride last start where got home well from back. Good splits last two starts ridden quiet. Needs a good ride but flashes late. 3rd QL600 last startr behind Pandemic and Maddi Rocks- two nice horses. Won on Soft 6,

5.He’s Super Lucky ($9)- Held up last start but Irish Songs was getting away from him late. Better for that, should improve as prep goes. Won well second up last prep 1100m. \

7.Up Trumpz ($6.50)- Form last prep solid. Make a case to say should have beaten Wagner. Finds Bowman, likes it here. Reckon he prefers it dry. Money? Fup no trials. Fresh record fair of late but first up city says ready.

12.Lanigera ($4)- Won his maiden by a big space and then freshened with tickover trial where keen and eased late. Just worry about his keenness but obviously has talent. Form out of mdn win avg 1 winner at Wellington and 4 placings 11 subs starters.

Not hopeless at odds:

11.Vincero ($23)- Two nice soft trials. Fresh form is good. Shd have gone close fresh last prep when ran off track Gosford for 2nd. Gate 14 the knock.

Other runners:

1.Asked To Leave ($138)- 4th in field 5 recent prov trial. First up long time.

2.Hay Bale ($27)- Solid effort first up and then too good second up. Time 6L quicker maiden on day. Gets chance in town. Former R Griffiths.

4.The Pharoah ($46)- Resuming- Never far away but long time since last win. 18 runs now! Fresh form just fair recent preps.

6.Logan River ($23)- Won two back Sapphire Coast (time only same as mdn on day), then missed start, held up, forgive latest.

8.Wanna Get A What ($35)= 3-4WNC first up and knocked up. Maybe another run off a long spell? Capable on day.

9.Accelerato ($11)- Blinkers off last two starts and turned the corner. Run was good at Gosford, sat wide Goulburn but they walked and sprinted. He was too good there, Tougher of course. 6 subs st out of race last start 1 pl.

10.Bentley magic ($34)- Got home well fresh and then disap last start Newc in sit and sprint. Was back to 900m there. Wins 110/1200- 1100 more suitable.

14.Moralist ($28)= Got home well fresh but leaders went very hard and entitled to get home. Draws gate 1, closer? How is track playing? This looks harder.

 

Race 6

Overview: I’m surprised King Hewitt isn’t shorter here and he produced some overall figures far superior to Knowitall Jack on the same day last start. He also beat home Obelos fair and square and is yet longer in the marker. The only query is whether he can reproduce it second up as he is a horse that hasn’t been able to put a long prep together for a while.  Bajan Gold can run a cheeky race fresh.

Advice: King Hewitt to win.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Speed should be even with Rapido Chaparro, Knowitall Jack and Appoint Percy rolling forward. RC can go a bit keen.

Likely market trend: Expect King Hewitt to start shorter than $7.50.

Selections: 5-1-6-13

5.King Hewitt ($5)- Loved the way he finished off firstup in race that rated much higher than Knowitall Jack’s race on same day. Second up now at 1600m. Has won at a mile. 2nd up record mixed.

1.Knowitall Jack ($5)- Racing in consistent form,. Had chance last start but only caught late. Figures from race just fair. Rolls along and proves hard to catch again.

6.Obelos ($10)- Got a good run fresh, pulled out, loomed and knocked up quickly. Better for that. One more perhaps way knocked up fresh? JMac sticks.

13.Perfect Pitch ($11)- Flat when staying at 1400m last start. Gets to mile now and did beat home Almerheri two bacjk and gets a 2kg swing on that horse in his favour. Just hasn’t won for 17 starts or 634 days.

Others for multiples:

4.Bajan Gold ($15)- Closed off nicely recent trial. Teased without going on with it last prep. Fresh run was good at Canterbury off slow tempo last time in. Capable second prep here.

9.Almeheri ($9)- Box seated, held uip and then too good last start in weaker race. Figures OK. Now draws wide?

Other runners:

2.Rapido Chaparro ($35)- Made a respiratory noise LS when led and weakened. Can go a bit quick in front.

3.Stryke Rock ($18)- Got back and closed off solidly off slow tempo last start. Prior win was in fair figures after overcoming trouble (5 subs st 1 pl).

7.Californiafirebird ($47)- Trials were fair and then didn’t run on fresh. All wins at 1600m but needs to lift.

8.Appoint Percy ($141)- Hard to have off recent form.

11.Kentucky Diva ($70)-Two trials- First one back and no impact at Hawkesbury. 2nd one went forward boxed on. First up off long break. 2nd to Deft first up last prep but first up off long break

15.Steamin’ ($20)-Won his past two in country in good fashion including Forbes Cup. 2nd horse out of that race beaten 6L in town since. Time 1.7s quicker mdn last start. Gets his chance in town. Has cityu form right throughout career.

16.Emergent ($11)- Won a weak form race two back (13 subs st 4 pl) and then looked winner Kembla and caught late. Run at strong speed and L600 very slow. Not sure right form?

19.Laguna Mountains ($300)- Hard to have,

 

Race 7

Overview: Happy to speck a couple at odds here in the shape of Zidane and Showminder. I’ve been waiting for Zidane to step up in trip and his two runs back have both been really good over shorter trips. I wish he had drawn a gate but he can flash late here.Showminder found the line well fresh, his second up record is good and extra trip helps. Lifetime Quest is the horse to beat but does go up 3kg here. He clocked good figures last start though. Whispered also has each-way claims with no weight on his back. He had no luck when wide last start in Saturday grade.

Advice: Specking Zidane at the odds.

Confidence: 4/10.

Speed map: Speed looks even with Holy Reign, Lieftime Quest, Cuba, Whispered and Rhythmic Pulse up there.

Likely market trend: Expect Lifetime Quest and Whispered to dominate betting.

Selections: 9-2-16-10

9.Zidane ($15)- Closed off well in two runs back. Now up to 1400m. 3rd up last prep forgive and then almost won. Would have loved a gate but knockout hope here.

2.Lifetime Quest ($2.90)- Led and kept going to score last start in solid fashion and best rating race of day. Now up 3kg the leveller with a bit more company up front but runs well again.

16.Whispered ($5)- Beat 3 subsequent winners two back and then latest sat wide and stuck on OK Saturday grade. Gets in light here, K McEvoy to ride and rolls forward you would expect.

10.Showminder ($12)- Found the line well fresh and always going to appreciate further. Second up record is good and he gets to 1400m now.

Other chance at odds:

4.Amanito ($35)- Liked his two runs back. Probably wants a mile now the query though. Gets 2.5kg swing Lifetime Quest. Winkers on. Did win third up last prep (blinkers went on that day).

Other runners:

1.Cuba ($10)- Just missed fresh in weak form race and then bit flat second up. Meets Lifetime Quest 3kg better off. Is a horse that has won 3rd up in past.

5.Beaufort Park ($14)- Tickover soft trial since winning well at prov first-up in OK figures. 2nd horse has won since. Draws to get a good run again.

7.Fastnet Cyclone ($281)- Well beaten fresh in weaker race.2 of 3 wins second up but needs to lift.

8.Holy Reign ($28)- Disap last start, form prior was soiund but needs to lift.

11.Silent General ($47)- Should have finished closer last start when chopped out late. Better there but recent form disap?

14.El Coyote ($75)- Blinkers again, tickover trial with blinkers on. Just fair over mile last start and won a weak form race priopr (8 subs st 0 pl)_.

15.High Low Bet ($28)- Got back and closed off OK in avg rating rtace last time out. Doubt that’s the right form line.

17.Joey’s Joy ($281)- Fup 1400- likely to need this.

18.Roititi ($1400)- Yet to win in 32starts. Prefer others.



Brad Davidson - Brad Davidson preview Warwick Farm August 28


FACEBOOK

FEEDBACK

TIPS

TWITTER

LISTEN

BSB Supporters