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Brad Davidson preview Kensington December  6

 Sep 3 2019

*** Check back tomorrow morning at 8.30am Sydney time for any extra plays

Meeting:Kensington

Best bets:

Race 6 no.6 Bandersnatch $2.80 (rated $2.60, confidence 8/10)

Bandersnatch looks hard to beat. The price went off $3.30-$2.80 earlier on Thursday which is a shame but if he reproduces first-up, they won’t beat him. His overall time was eight lengths quicker than the two other 1300m races on the day first-up.

Race 4 No.3 Quality Seeker $4.60 (rated $4.10, confidence 7/10)

The $4.60 seems a decent gamble to find out if Quality Seeker is a progressive stayer. Bolted in last start and the last 200m figure of 11.20s was strong.

Early play Rosehill Saturday

Race 9 no.14 Spencer $16 (rated $13, confidence 5/10)

Up in grade but drops 8kg off a city win and draws well. Loved his strength through the line last start and while the time wasn't great, he is still on the up this prep. Beat Orcein last start and that horse has won a Saturday race since.

Expected firmers:

Expected drifters:

Race 4 no.4 Continuation $4.20 (looks a false fav to me)

Race 7 no.13 Phoenix River $3.60 (short enough back in trip and will give them a start)

Betting strategy

****I’ve decided to offer the two different strategies going forward. The normal strategy will be the same one I’ve been doing since August, the long game strategy will be the 100 unit betting bank idea. I understand that both strategies will suit different styles of punters, so please pick the one that suits you and gamble responsibly.

 

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less.

 

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

 

Normal strategy (85 units)

Race 6 no.6 Bandersnatch 45 unit win at $2.80

Race 4 no.3 Quality Seeker 30 unit win at $4.60

Rosehill Saturday

Race 9 no.14 Spencer 10 unit win at $16

Results: -453 units (-7.4% POT, 6121 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

Long game strategy (2.75 units)

Kensington Friday

Race 6 no.6 Bandersnatch 1.5 unit win at $2.80

Race 4 no.3 Quality Seeker 1 unit win at $4.60

Rosehill Saturday

Race 9 no.14 Spencer 0.25 unit win at $16

Results: +0.3 units (37.1 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Rail position: True, good track.

History of track bias:    

5/01/2019         Kens     True      G3         Lanes no issue but fairly on pace (most tempo though?). Only one winner further back 4th.

6/03/2019         Kens     True      g4          Pretty fair track. Didn’t want to be too far back and I don't think hard fence was best place

4/05/2019         Kens     True      S5/G4   Fair track

17/08/2019       Kens     True      g4          Pretty fair track- reckon lanes 1-2 sl inferior but prety fair

2/10/2019         Kens     TRUE     G4         Run on middle (3-4+ off fence)

5/11/2019         Kens     True      G4         Fair track

Assessment: Fair track. If anything touch off fence and running on.

Wind: Strong to moderate easterly. Tailwind for 1300m races down back straight and then headwind of sorts in home straight.                        

 

 

Race 1

Overview: Not much between Electric Girl, Indigenous and Saigon here. I like the form around Electric Girl though and I think she is slightly over the odds.

Advice: Leaning to Electric Girl.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Indigenous looks the leader with Maggie’s Girl rolling forward. Electric Girl should be in the next line.

Likely market trend: Could come for 1,2 or 3.

Selections: 1-2-3-5

1. Electric Girl ($3.1): -$21-$61 on debut but ran on really well behind a smart one in Instant Attraction. Quickest of 3 x 1200m races on day. 11.20 QL200 of race and 2nd quickest day. Winner just missed since, third horse bolted in since.

2. Indigenous ($2.8): Stuck to task on debut in solid rating race behind Miss Spiteful. Half to Zousain. 5th horse won since. Step up to 1400m looks fine. Likely leader? Nash on.

3. Saigon ($4.7): Found the line first-up behind Electric Girl-Mum won up to 2400m so extra trip should suit. QL600 and 400m of race. Last 200 .1s slower than Electric Girl.

5. Nishka ($16.6): Not far away second up when up in trip in OK rating race Hawkesbury. Well held by Miss Spiteful earlier. Form ties in with Indigenous- beaten .5L Miss Spiteful, she was beaten 3L by that horse.

Other runners:

4. Maggie's Girl ($27.6), 6. Fatalia ($82.7).

 

Race 2

Overview: What do we do with Mission Dream? Everything that could go wrong did on debut. Rari has the runs on the board though. They look the two with Samurai and Bacchus also capable.

Advice: Rari on top.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Expecting Rari to lead with Equites coming across to sit outside. Speed looks moderate.

Likely market trend: No firm opinion.

Selections: 3-5-2-9

3.Rari ($3.70)- Started fav first-up but 1000m too short then just missed in two horse battle latest when race run .4s quicker benchmark race on day on merits too. Rolls forward again.

5.Mission Dream ($3.90)- Well backed and everything that could go wrong went wrong on debut. Raced fiercely, hung out around turn and in straight, tongue over bit. Crossover noseband and tongue tie on. Obviously has talent.

2.Samurai ($6.60)- Got back off slow tempo first-up but found the line well. Form out of race ordinary (5 subs st 1 pl) but extra trip should suit. Nash on.

9.Bacchus ($8.30)- Loomed and knocked up fresh. Fitter for that off just one trial coming in as well. Should finish off a touch better niow.

Other runners:

1. Royal Marine ($20.5), 4. Tampering ($34.1), 6. Miyake ($34.1), 7. Equites ($22.8), 8. The Snooperstar ($20.5), 10. Dannevirke Lad ($102.3).

 

Race 3

Overview: I thought this was a two horse race between Aquitaine and Switched. I thought the gap between them was too large and as a result I’ll lean to Switched.

Advice: Leaning to Switched as favourite looks too short.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Expecting Switched and Aquitaine to be 1-2 in the run and fight this out.

Likely market trend: Expecting Aquitaine to drift a touch from $2.10.

Selections: 2-4-3-6

2.Switched ($3.40): Soft time on speed and too good Hawkesbury then battled well when up in grade at Kembla. Her overall time was quick enough to win other 1200m race on day won by Trumbiull. L600 identical to Trumbull on day. Drop back here. 6th horse Jen Rules won since.

4.Aquitaine ($2.70): Confidently backed and too good fresh when burnt candle both ends. Tired late but was first-up and has the improvement. Race was run .4s quicker 2yo race on day off slightly slower early tempo.

3.Belitsa ($7.90)- Made late ground on Aquitaine first up and gets a 2.5kg swing on that horse here. Is it enough? Doubtful.

6. Zem Factor ($11): Got the job done fresh and race rated 1L better other mdn on day. Went to line with Great News there who has been beaten 2.5L in mdn since.

Other chances:

5. Estrado ($12.50): Found the line well last start behind Aquitaine and gets that 2,5kg swing in the weights. Has been up a while though and that horse has more upside?

Other runner:

7. Heza Gentleman ($89).

 

Race 4

Overview: The $4.80 seems a decent gamble to find out if Quality Seeker is a progressive stayer. Bolted in last start and the last 200m figure of 11.20s was strong. De Valera, Poulton Le Sands and Miss Moana are all capable along with Continuation (just looks too short).

Advice: Quality Seeker to win.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Miss Moana looks the likely leader with Eugenio and Continuation not far away. Speed looks moderate.

Likely market trend: Expecting Quality Seeker to start shorter than $4.80.

Selections: 3-6-5-2

3.Quality Seeker ($4.10): Just knocked up first-up, second up back in trip, third up bolted in and 11.20 last 200m was strong. 2400m looks logical. Beat Hemsted 6.3L there, that horse beaten 3.7L by Continuation next start. Has the upside.

6.De Valera- ($5.20): Got back and closed off well last couple but entitled to as well the way the race was run. Bolted in only run at this trip.

5.Poulton Le Sands ($6.10): Good two back but set up for that day, strong off slow tempo latest. Will be running on again.

2.Miss Moana ($8.10): Too good two miles two back then back to 2400m, soft time on speed and had chance.

Other chances:

4.Continuation ($8.10): Too good latest but soft time on speed and overall figures fair.Beaten by Plaisir three back. 3kg swing on that horse.

1.Plaisir ($12.40): Back from Saturday grade. Disappointing there but did win over 2100m comfortably prior def Californiafirebird. Form ties in OK there. 2400m first time.

Other runners:

7. Eugenio ($50.1), 8. Fox Beat ($25), 9. Wristband ($50.1).

 

Race 5

Overview: Tricky race. Voila has good form lines down south and her fresh form is strong too. There was a bit of style about Rebukes’ win first-up and she was off a long break and is open to improvement. Bubbles Ball is likeable but short enough.

Advice: Voila and Rebukes both have claims at odds. No knock on the fav just short enough.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Bubbles Ball, Glamour Cat and potentially Worldly Pleasure look the three on pace runners. Speed looks moderate.

Likely market trend: Expecting 2,3,7 to all have admirers.

Selections: 2-7-3-1

2. Voila ($5.6): Two soft trials- Narrowly beaten by Stephan/Roosevelt first up last prep over 1150 when wide at WF. Apprentice on. Did win at Caul last prep.

7. Rebukes ($7.4): Nice win first-up from long break- Time was 2L slower Cl2 on day but was tempo related. 2nd horse won since and third horse runner up Canterbury mdn.

3. Bubbles Ball ($3.1): Worst she has finished in 4th in 9 starts to date. 8 times top 3. Good prep last time in. Two soft trials, closed off really well no pressure first one. Likeable fresh.

1. Unguarded ($6.8): Two nice trials- Just 1100m first-up might be a touch short with 61kg? Wins have been 1300-1400

Other chances:

4. Eveleigh ($9): Closed off solidly from the back latest. Just gives them a start here and a few others with perhaps a bit more upside?

Other runners:

5. Worldly Pleasure ($36.4), 6. Glamour Cat ($22.8), 8. Our Blue Moon ($182.1), 9. Ave ($45.6).

 

Race 6

Overview: Bandersnatch looks hard to beat. The price went off $3.30-$2.80 earlier on Thursday which is a shame but if he reproduces first-up, they won’t beat him. C’est Davinchi, Plenty and Twentyfour Carat all have claims but Bandersnatch for me.

Advice: Bandersnatch looks hard to beat.

Confidence: 8/10.

Speed map: Bandersnatch should lead and the only challenger for that spot appears Moreno if they roll forward? If they do, it could be the fly in the ointment for the fav.

Likely market trend: Expect Bandersnatch to start a firm favourite.

Selections: 6-4-3-11

6.Bandersnatch ($2.70)- $6.50 to $4.80 and was very impressive first-up. Straight to front and bolted in defeating subs winner Commute in process. At least 8L quicker other 2 x 1300m races on day (were maiens). Reproduces and he wins, simple as that.

4.C’Est Davinchi ($10)- Was backed and good return when held up until 200m and running on strongly late (6 subs st 1 pl out of race). Runner up to Kolding (distant second) second up last prep. 1400m should suit and can save a bit of ground inside gate with McEvoy to ride.

3. Plenty ($10)- Got job done LS but couldn’t have panned out better going very hard early. Beaten home by Paquirri start prior. Seems to be settling better.

11.Twentyfour Carat ($5.10): Apprentice off, senior on. Was wide last start which didn’t help but still a bit disappointing for mine considering only one turn at WF. They did go quick though. Beat Starla prior. Stays at 1400m?

Other runners:

1. Subban ($#DIV/0!), 2. Paquirri ($17.8), 3. Plenty ($10), 4. C'Est Davinchi ($10), 5. Hotel Amour ($144.1), 6. Bandersnatch ($3), 7. Showminder ($14.2), 8. Brix ($72.1), 9. High Mist ($23.7), 10. Moreno ($17.8), 11. Twentyfour Carat ($5.1), 12. Vee Eight ($48.1).

 

 

Race 7

Overview: I thought Phoenix River was short enough here. Happy to back the two runners in Koonunga and He’s Super Lucky.  Both should appreciate the strong tempo expected here.

Advice: Can back Koonunga and He’s Super Lucky small.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Strong speed expected with Witherspoon, Yitai Synery, Don’t Tease Me and potentially Grand Bernini up there. Others have speed too.

Likely market trend: Expecting Phoenix River to drift from $3.60.

Selections: 6-5-8-13

6. Koonunga ($4.80): No luck at all last start and good winner prior in strong late splits. Nash back on. Just missed this t/d going back in Sep.

5.He’s Super Lucky ($7): Overcame slow tempo to score LS in really strong late figures. Beat Brazenpine there who has won since and been luckless in city grade. Kept fresh.

8.Witherspoon ($6.80): Speedy filly- Expect her to roll forward and give them something to catch. Has company on speed but should lead.Form around God Of Thunder and Royal Witness reads well.

13. Phoenix River ($5.50): Good win latest but it was set up for him and now drops back 100m from wide draw. Needs a few things to go right.

Other runners:

1. Land Of Freedom ($15.7), 2. Virgilio ($25.5), 3. Don't Tease Me ($42.5), 4. Grand Bernini ($21), 7. Beeokay ($85.1), 9. I Am Magnificent ($42.5), 10. Show Me The Honey ($31.9), 12. Little Al ($15.7).



Brad Davidson - Brad Davidson preview Kensington December 6


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