Advertisement
TAB.com.au | Sky Racing | Sky Sports Radio

Back to Expert Comment

Brad Davidson preview Warwick Farm September 18

 Sep 17 2019

Warwick Farm

September 18

Rail true- heavy track predicted.

Best value

Race 6 no.12 He’s A Given $6

He’s A Given is a swimmer and I don’t think the wide gate will be a negative at this time of the day. It could actually be an advantage. He loves racing here, the mile is on his outer limits but he gets conditions to suit. Duchess Of Lennox is the horse to beat and I could back her on the drift late tomorrow (should get out from $2.60) but He’s A Given is the value at $8.50.

Race 5 no.13 Miss Einstein $7 (also backing High Low Bet at $10)

Best roughie of the day comes up here in the shape of Miss Einstein. She hit the line late last start and wasn’t far off Subpoenaed (who would start short here!) after being held up and both her runs back have been really good. This is her first run on a wet track but she trialled well on a soft 6 leading in. Looks the overs at $13. Wide gate should be fine by this time of the day.

 

 

History:

Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6              F7          F8          F9                             

 

1/08/2018         WF        TRUE     G4         Bit on pace and fencish early but evened up late                                      

19/09/2018       WF        True      G4         Fence early here and then evened out late and if anything got wider last few. Slight adv on pace most of day                                        

24/10/2018       WF        True      S7          Pretty fair- still reckon a bit better wider later but last winner won on fence so surprisingly not too bad on wet in true                                              

22/12/2018       WF        True      H8         Closer to fence on pace OK early but wider and swooping second half of program                                         

9/02/2019         WF        True      H8-S6    Wide and swooping clear adv. Rained night before meeting heavily.                          

13/03/2019       WF        True      S7          On pace first few lanes first half of meet then wider the better when rain came just before r5                                           

1/05/2019         WF        True      g4          Rails in run accounted for 6 of 7 winners    

12/06/2019       WF        True      S6          Fence off here and close to it. OK from about 3-4 wide onwards                                       

31/07/2019       WF        True      g4          Pretty fair although lanes 3-5 probably best           

Assessment: Wet Warwick Farm equals middle of track and swooping.     

Wind: Moderate southerly.

Race 1

Overview: The blinkers go on Entente and he could be the value now this is going to be a genuine slog. Dancing Gidget comes through a fair rating race fresh but her mum was a three time winner on wet ground and she may swim here. Promotions wandered about a bit last start so the blinkers should help. Palurien was wide but still disappointing first-up and needs to improve, while Bigboyroy brings solid form lines into this if fit enough fresh?

Advice: No firm opinion here.

Selections: 4-3-2-8.

4.Dancing Gidget-Trialled well and then held up a touch before flashing late and just missing debut. Time was 1.1s slower than other mdn on day- went much slower early but race also home slower. Extra 100m should help. Mum 3 time winner soft ground.

3.Entente- Blinkers 1st time- Got back and closed off OK first-up. Would have preferred further but hopefully blinkers sharpen him up?

2.Promotions- Winkers 1st time- Seeemed to float last star and just missed. Stays at 1400m, rolls forward. Went quick early? Colada come out of race and won. 9th War Baron also won.

8.Palurien- Half to Kementari. Wnc FIRST-up and overraced but still a tad disapp. Winner won a Saturday race since. 6th horse also won. Goes back perhaps? Manners?

Other runners:

5.Kypreos- Got home OK at Nowra on debut but this is much harder- .3-.4S slower Cl1 on day mainly tempo related.

6.Rock Amore- Blinkers off. Two trials- Got back and closed off OK both. Latest closed off well but took some winding up first. Last prep solid form lines. Went hard NcLE before a break.

9.Lucky Imperator- Off speed and finished off OK in slow run race fresh. Extra trip should suit and rolls forward.Unplaced two wet run

Race 2

Overview: Grand Piano really caught the eye off a slow temo fresh and he clocked the quickest last 200m of the day. Giselle Anne leads and should get through the ground.

Advice: Leaning to Grand Piano.

Selections: 4-9-5-7

4.Grand Piano- 10.76 ql200 of day first0up off a spoft tempo. Hard to make ground. Stays at 1100m 21 days between runs.  Wet track unknown. 3rd to Faretti in trial prior.

9.Giselle Anne- Probably a bit short fresh and wasn’t able to lead. Held on solidly. Figures OK. Rolls to front here. Beaten Less 1L weak Widden S7.

5.Hulk- Tongue tie first time. Had chance two runs back but beaten by subs Sat winner last start. 1300m back to 1100m?

7.Ziedrich- Runner up only run last prep. .6s slower Cl1 on day off slower early tempo. Third horse won next two starts.  Second to Dawn Passage recent trial was solid. Good time about 6L quicker Capri Lane trial on same day.

Other runners:

6.Innisbrook- Blinkers (Off Side) FIRST TIME, Butterfly Bit FIRST TIME.Got back and never really closed off on debut in weaker race.

11.Sky Diamonds- Two trials visually impressive but time of first one slow and second one against unraced horses. Beaten at Goulb weak mdn last prep.

 

Race 3

Overview: Leaning to Penshurst who was ridden upside down last start. He has wet form overseas. Toulouse closed off solidly last start to get past Breakdance and Penshurst late and he loved wet ground earlier in his career but hasn’t loved it recently? Agosto will have admirers but this is harder, while Breakdance also has claims.

Advice: Leaning to Pesnhurst.

Selections: 3-4-2-10

3.Penshurst- Cardiac arrythmia three back, really good two back after being held up and then maybe ridden upside down latest. Has won on heavy overseas? Nash rides toppy instead for same connections?

4.Agosto- Got the job done last start against a weak field Soft time on speed and sprinted home. Second horse beaten more than 3L Tuncurry since. He’s Imposing beat him home prior and meets him 2kg better off for doing so. Unknown wet?

2.Breakdance- Went forward and plugged away LS when narrowly beat home Penshurst. Won S5 but most wet form in Aus just fair? Rolls forward gets a soft run on speed.

10.Laguna Mountains- Found the line well two back in town over a mile where she beat home KD. Chased home a smart one latest but well beaten.

Other runners:

1.Fairlight- Resuming- Was good last prep without going on with it. Pushed along recent 1200m trial. First up 61kg 2200m, wet track? Nash on. Fitness?

6.Keep Up- Good from back in Tuncurry Cup and has turned corner in recent months. Key to that has been dry tracks though. Likely to be wet here?

 

Race 4

Overview: Maddi Rocks on top but will she handle wet ground? She was scratched on a wet track a few weeks back. She is coming out of the strongest races and was 3 weeks between runs last start (maybe an excuse for the disappointing effort). Erno and Full Recognition are both capable but I think they’ve both been a touch overrated to date personally. Best roughie is Casino Mondial. He bolted in first-up with 62kg at Taree and seems to get through the wet.

Advice: Leaning to Maddi Rocks but short enough.

Selections: 9-3-6-5

9.Maddi Rocks- Good fresh where just bumped into Pandemic and L200 was 10.94s. Second up settled closer and didn’t close off, faded late. Was 3 weeks between runs 1100 to 1300? Scr wet track two weeks ago?No weight, goes back, gets to middle?

3.Full Recognition- Got job done fresh. Erno gets a 1kg swing in weights. .4S slower Dance Hall Girl race same day-Tempo related- 5 subs st 2 pl. S6 third to Classique Legend in past.

6.Erno- Held up but disap last start. Just missed first-up. 1400m should suit.  JMAC sticks. Won on heavy debut.

5.Casino Mondial- Bolted in first up with 62kg as well. 3l quicker other 1250m races on day. Seems to get through wet groud as well. Won 2nd up last prep. 3 of 4 wins at Taree.

Other runners:

1.Esteem Spirit- Resuming- Trials just fair. Does handle wet ground but first-up since Nov last year- 1400m big weight?

2.Another Snappy- Stable change from Jarrod  Austin to Graham Brown. Gear changes-Blinkers AGAIN, Standard Bit FIRST TIME, Tongue Control Bit OFF FIRST TIME. First up trial was OK. Own worst enemy this horse as overraces badkly. Yet to place 8 first up runs.

4.Leningrad- OK fresh in weak form race as first run as gelding. Since then, disapp second up. Jury’s out? Blinkers again. By Snitzel.

 

Race 5

Overview: Best roughie of the day comes up here in the shape of Miss Einstein. She hit the line late with Subpoenaed last start after being held up and both her runs back have been really good. This is her first run on a wet track but she trialled well on a soft 6 leading in. Kedah is also capable at double figures and she has won her past two starts in good fashion and deserves a crack here. High Low Bet loves the wet ground but I’m just worried about the inside draw by this time of the day.

Advice: Can back both Miss Einstein and High Low Bet to win.

Selections: 13-11-3-15

13.Miss Einstein- Liked her two runs back, found the line well fresh on dat hard to and then tempo against LS but closed off well after being held up. First run wet track but trialled well S6 leading in.

11.High Low Bet- Blinkers off. No luck two back and maybe not on best part of track latest but they were on good ground and she is much better on wet tracks. Inside gate a query though as doubt she can get to the middle? JMAC on.

3.Kedah- Won her past two in good fashion. Overal time 1-2L slower other B64 last start but closing off well. 1300m looks natural progression. Won soft 5 race day and soft 6 trial but never seen anything worse.

15.Avon River- Got a long way back last start before closing off solidly in 33.28 pretty good last 600m. Sim sectionals to Lucicello. Can settle a bit closer and seems to get through ground.

Other chances:

9.Exotic Ruby- 3rd behind Pandemic and then up on soft speed and kicked to be beaten ½ length by a nice enough filly. Beat home Miss Einstein narrowly. Wet track unknown but by Snitzel?

10.Got Your Six- Tongue tie first time. Bit disapp first up fair to say. Drops 3kg. Finds lead again. Placed behind Classique Legend only run soft track.

Other runners:

1.Miss Redoble- Hit the line well in quick trial at Gosf when 4th of 9 1000m. Has won first up in past. Likes it wet. Prov Quali win Heavy track last prep.

5.Nangami- Blinkers 1st time- Beaten 4L by Kedah first uo. Won mdn on S7 by 4L only wet run. Can improve but needs to.

6.Sangita- Won a Class 1 in average time and then bit disap in town latest. Won the Class 1 on soft 6.

14.Tepario- Got the job done LS in solid fashion although overall time just ordinary. 1.1s slower other mdn on day. Mainly tempo but still slower L600 which is concerning. This looks a task. First run wet, out of Commands mare. Two trials on heavy were solid.

16.Iskander- had flashing light on last start but wasn’t a strong race and l600 still 2L inferior to a Miss Einstein on day despite being 1100 v 1300m and both pretty slow paces early. Has performed well on wet before. Gate a worry (not sure inside place to be) + last run could be overplayed.

 

Race 6

Overview: He’s A Given is a swimmer and I don’t think the wide gate will bother him at this time of the day. It could actually be an advantage. He loves racing here. Duchess Of Lennox should have won last start and she gets the chance to atone here. She has never seen worse than a soft 5 and that’s the only knock. Expect her to drift from $2.60.

Advice: He’s A Given each-way.

Selections: 12-6-8-10

12.He’s A Given- Ran on well last couple. 1600m outer limits but different horse on wet ground. Loves it here. Just OK S6 here mile recently but it was a G4. Last wet run here beat The Party Girl who won Sat city grade two starts later.

6.Duchess Of Lennox- Should have won last start. Wanted to lay in a touch and got held up of course. 1600m natural progression, JMAC on. Never seen worse than S5.

8.Almerheri- Good run against bias LS (hard to make ground out wide). Inside gate a query by this time of day. Wet form mixed won S6 but that was Kenso. WF different. Won trial H9.

10.Maid Of Ore- Hit line well first two runs and then did work wide on strong speed nd too strong latest. Rest of placegetters were off pace horses. Wet/dry seems ok. Time was .7s quicker other 1600m race LS.

Other runners:

1.Falcon Island- Blinkers again. Just fair in two runs back. Placed soft 7 but all wins top of ground. Duchess OF Lennox got past him LS with no luck either.

3.Devil’s Lair- Can mix his form a bit. Best runs this prep have been dry?

4.Happy Seventy- 2 months between runs. OK last start. Won maiden on heavy. Gets through it OK. Class? Won weak form race three back (5 subs st 1 pl).

5.Judge Judi- Struggled a touch in conditions LS. Good effort prior. Tough on pacer. Probably doesn’t want it too wet? On pace bias helped two back.

14.The Promise- Been around the mark Sat grade last two starts. Won S5 but query on proper wet perhaps? Didn’t seem to love it LS.

15.By Design- Will likely need this.

 

Race 7

Overview: Tough race to finish the day with plenty of chances! And track pattern/ conditions key by now.

Selections: 6-14-2-9

6.Colombina- 33.04 QL600 of the day first up. Got home well from the back. Won here on H10 in Mdn grade defeating Art Of The Bar. Just the inside draw the knock.

14.Dunbrody Power- Good late two back and then bias against LS when came wide. Back to 1100m. Won mdn S6.

2.Up Trumpz- Good win first-up when trying to get in Kosciousko. Draws to sit off strong speed. 6 subs st 1 win 0 pl out of race. Seems to get through it OK, place dheavy. Not too wet though?

9.Emperor Harada- Ran on well fresh although race run to suit. Tickover trial since was pleasing. Wet track helps, seems to love it and wide gate no issue. Just hasn’t won below 1200m and last win was 1600m? 5 weeks between runs though.

Other chances:

5.Versetto- led and kept going to score LS. .2s quicker other B64 on day. By Your Song but never seen worse than S5. Speed inside.

7.He’s Super Lucky- Good against bias LS (made ground out wide) and third up here. Inside draw a worry. Trialled well soft?

13.Deference- Won mdn over subs winner Colada and then led and knocked up Up And Coming. Tickover trial since where a bit keen. Seems to get through wet.

Other runners:

15.Johnny Roo Boy- Close two back in weak form race. Form either side just fair.

 

 

 



Brad Davidson - Brad Davidson preview Warwick Farm September 18


FACEBOOK

FEEDBACK

TIPS

TWITTER

LISTEN

BSB Supporters