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Brad Davidson preview Warwick Farm Jann 15

 Sep 17 2019

Hardest to beat

Race 5 no.3 Lifetime Quest $2.30

Well supported overnight so no real value now but does look hard to beat first up. Should find the front and his form lines around Cuba (went to Melbourne last campaign and win convincingly) last prep read well. His trials have been pleasing and he should kick off his campaign in style.

Value

Race 3 no.5 Capri Of Tuffy $7.50 and $2.60

The favourite Parche has trialled really well leading in but she normally gets back and she will need a bit of luck from the wide barrier. I just can’t see Allison Of Tuffy running a bad race. Should get across OK from the wide draw on speed and she was narrowly beaten by Rari last start and found the line strongly behind Arousal in a strong rating maiden prior. Has strong form lines for this.

 

Race 6 no.10 Le Deneuner $61 and $13

Not a bad roughie this at the big odds. Good speed engaged here and she often runs a cheeky race fresh. 2 of her three overall wins have been first up and I loved the way she found the line first up last prep when third to And So It Goes at this prep. Gets in with no weight on her back and is a chance at odds in a very open race.

 

Normal strategy (65 units)

Race 5 no.3 Lifetime Quest 15 unit win at $2.30

Race 3 no.5 Capri Of Tuffy 15 unit win at $7 and 15 unit place at $2.60

Race 6 no.10 Le Dejeuner 3 unit win at $61 and 7 unit place at $13

10 unit main Quaddie (starts r4, 15.62%)

1st leg: 2,3,7,8. 2nd leg: 3. 3rd leg: 4,7,9,10. 4th leg: 4,5,6,10.

Results: -1088.1 units (-13.55% POT, 8031 units outlayed)

 

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

 

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy (1.8 units)

Race 5 no.3 Lifetime Quest 0.5 unit win at $2.30

Race 3 no.5 Capri Of Tuffy 0.5 unit win at $7.5 and 0.5 unit place at $2.60

Race 6 no.10 Le Dejeuner 0.1 unit win at $61 and 0.2 unit place at $13

Results: -16.3 units (-17.1% POT, 95.05 units outlayed)

 

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

 

Think! About your choices.



Brad Davidson - Brad Davidson preview Warwick Farm Jann 15


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