Advertisement
TAB.com.au | Sky Racing | Sky Sports Radio

Back to Expert Comment

Brad Davidson preview Randwick October 26

BRAD DAVIDSON PREVIEW RANDWICK OCTOBER 26 Oct 24 2019

*** Prices for strategy and best bets are prior deductions. Deductions will be applied if they win***

Meeting: Randwick Bondi Stakes Day

Best play:

Race 5 no.1 Pretty In Pink $8 (rated $5.70, confidence 6/10)

Pretty In Pink looks the bet here and I loved her recent trial with the blinkers on. She cruised to the line in the quickest heat of the day by about seven lengths. She has had no luck this prep. First-up, she missed the start and got back in a real sprint home and then second up she copped a nasty check at the start which put her out of action. She can settle closer here and looks the value back to 1200m.

Best value:

Race 8 no.3 Poised To Strike $7.50 (rated $6.50, confidence 6/10)

I thought Poised To Strike was the value here off a complete forgive run fresh. He never got out in the straight and he did beat Testifier comfortably enough in a trial leading into this prep as well.

Expected firmers:

Race 5 no.1 Pretty In Pink $8 (should firm up from there)

Race 7 no.1 Kubrick $4.60 (could start fav the way the market is trending)

Expected drifters:

Race 3 no.3 Faretti $2.15 (Priced on potential IMO. Clocked slower ov time in mdn win than other mdn on day and 2nd hose failed since)

Race 4 no.5 Greyworm $2.40 (terrific winning chance, just too short)

Race 5 no.3 Reelem In Ruby $3.30 (nice enough horse but always starts unders IMO)

Race 8 no.9 Testifier $4.60 (trials just fair?)

Betting strategy

****I’ve decided to offer the two different strategies going forward. The normal strategy will be the same one I’ve been doing since August, the long game strategy will be the 100 unit betting bank idea. I understand that both strategies will suit different styles of punters, so please pick the one that suits you and gamble responsibly.

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less.

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels. We will recommence a fresh betting bank on November 1.

 

Normal strategy (105 units)

Randwick

Race 3 no.1 Diamond Thunder 15 unit win at $5

Race 4 no.9 Improvement 15 unit wun at $4.80

Race 5 no.1 Pretty In Pink 20 unit win at $8

Race 7 no.1 Kubrick 10 unit win at $4.40

Race 8 no.3 Poised To Strike 15 unit win at $7.50

10 unit early quaddie (starts r2, 13,88%): 1st leg: 3,9. 2nd leg: 1,3,8. 3rd leg: 5,7,9. 4th leg: 1,4,8,9.

15 unit main quaddie (starts r6, 10.42%): 1st leg: 4,6,7. 2nd leg: 1,2,5,7. 3rd leg: 3,8,9,15. 4th leg: 3,5,15.

Moonee Valley

Cox Plate 5 unit win Castelvecchio $51 (**locked in three weeks ago)

Results: -321.1 units (-6.8%, 4661 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy (2.75 units)

Randwick

Race 3 no.1 Diamond Thunder 0.5 unit win at $5

Race 4 no.9 Improvement 0.5 unit win at $4.80

Race 5 no.1 Pretty In Pink 0.75 unit win at $8

Race 7 no.1 Kubrick 0.25 unit win at $4.40

Race 8 no.3 Poised To Strike 0.5 unit win at $7.50

Moonee Valley

Cox Plate 0.25 unit win Castelvecchio $51 (**locked in three weeks ago)

Results: +5.3 units (+3.9% POT, 137.5 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Rail position: 8m, good trak.

14/02/2017       Rwick    8m        G4         Middle of track best part- Fence 1-2l inferior

20/01/2018       Rwick    8m        g4          Rail definitely place to be. Big advantage

20/10/2018       Rwick    8m        S7          Wider the better here. Could come off pace as result

7/09/2019         Rwick    8m        G4         very on pace and favoured rail. Only one winner further back 4th all day

Assessment: Last two meetings good track here rail and on pace was big advantage.

Wind: Strong WNW shifting to strong Westerly late afternoon. Leaders running into headwind at 1400m start. Not a real tail wind in home straight but probably advantage leaders otherwise.

 

Race 1

Overview: The general history with this rail position in recent times has been on pace and rail advantage so I have to lean the way of Anders in the first. His first trial was just fair but he went forward, led and won the second trial comfortably in solid time. Endorse was given a soft hit out in a recent trial which rated some five lengths quicker than Close To Me’s trial on the same day. Close To Me was given an easy hit out as well though and there was plenty of style in how she went about it. See You Soon showed plenty of strength through the line in a recent trial and looks next best.

Advice: Too many unknowns for me here but if playing wait until late and see where the confidence is in betting.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Anders should lead with Dame Giselle there too. Murungal might be closer if he jumps. Speed should be even.

Likely market trend: I don’t know which way it will go but it will be important.

Selections: 2-5-3-8 ** Hard to price these and could have this way off*** Late betting important

2. Anders ($3.1): Pushed along first trial and just fair in a good time heat. Then went forward, led and won comfortably second trial in solid time on day. Not sure he beat much but looks to roll forward and lead.

5. Close To Me ($4.70): Time in trial nothing flash but I loved the way she closed off late..8s slower than Endorse’s heat on day and last 600m was 6L inferior but just looks to have some class.

3. Endorse ($5.9): Pushed along first trial and closed off well. Second trial, given easy time in quick heat. .8s quicker CTM heat and 6L quicker L600 in trial speaks volumes.

8. See You Soon ($6.7): Nice soft trial coming in, in good time. Liked his strength through the line. Only one trial? Yard? Other horses in placings in trial unraced.

Other chances:

6. Dame Giselle ($11.8): L600 6L slower than Anders. Overall time .4s slower.

Other runners:

7. Outreach Belle ($23.8).

 

Race 2

Overview: I’ll lean the way of But I Know but I concede she will need things to go her way from the back. She has had the race run to suit at her past two starts but has finished strongly and should be hitting the line hard again. Fast Talking should have finished closer in a benchmark race last start and bolted in out in the country twice prior to that. He is going really well. Couru maps to get all the favours and looks the best of the on pace runners, while Black Wand was a bit disappointing last start but was off a freshen and was a Highway winner prior.

Advice: Leaning to But I Know.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: The Memory Man, Couru and Ambitious Prince should be prominent. Speed is generally genuine in these Highway races.

Likely market trend: No firm opinion.

Selections: 9-3-10-2

9. But I Know ($4.7): Races as if the 1800m will really suit. Strong from the back her past two starts. Likely to drift back again. Horse to beat but concern is last two races have been run super fast early to allow her to get home. There doesn’t seem to be as much speed here?

3. Fast Talking ($5.6): Seems a different horse this prep. Bolted in country x 2 and then no luck in benchmark race latest where should have finished 1L closer. Has won at 1700

10. Couru ($15.1): Second to Emaneuala two back (But I Know also second to that horse last start so form ties in with fav) and then stuck to task latest. Maps well.

2. Black Wand ($9.2): A bit disappointing last start but was off a freshen and did win a Highway two back.

Other runners:

 4. Ambitous Prince ($12.1), 5. Dew Drop ($24.3), 6. Lost Command ($17.2), 7. The Memory Man ($30.4), 8. Weather Channel ($24.3), 11. Vertex ($12.1), 12. Lord Desanimaux ($40.5), 13. Isadora Twinkle ($23), 14. The Kroc ($80).

 

Race 3

Overview: I would have liked to have seen him trial a touch better in his latest hit out but Diamond Thunder still has to be the bet here. Took all before him last prep with his only defeat being a brave third when he was taken on in front and the swoopers prevailed. He beat California Zimbol before a break and she is a subsequent Group 3 winner. Dirty Work went super in the Roman Consul and if he reproduces that, he is right in this (also accepted in Melbourne). I could save on him. Faretti is a nice enough horse but I think he is being priced on hype here. The facts are his debut win, albeit dominant, was two lengths slower than the other maiden on the day and the second horse out of the race has been soundly beaten since. Regimental Band gets the blinkers on and should improve here after being a touch disappointing last start.

Advice: Can back both Diamond Thunder and Dirty Work to beat the fav.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Cardiff and Dirty Work should roll along, Faretti in behind them. Diamond Thunder should be midfield on the fence.

Likely market trend: Faretti may not drift due to the hype on him but at $2.25 he is being priced on potential for mine.

Selections: 1-3-8-2

1. Diamond Thunder ($3.2): Recent trials OK without raving about. Beat California Zimbol before a break who has come out and beaten Loving Gaby comfortably this prep. Run prior at Rosehill was a cracker when went far too hard and boxed on. Sits back midfield fence and should be strong late.

3. Faretti ($3.2): Good win first up but time didn’t really stack up. 2L slower than Willowheart, other mdn winner on debut the concern. May be overplayed a touch here. 2nd horse failed on Wednesday as well.

8. Regimental Band ($6.8)- Blinkers on. Disappointing LS but beat subs stakenswinner Akari prior. Yet to run time but gets the nod for fourth pick.

2. Cardiff ($8.2): Next best. Fighting effort on speed latest in solid rating race. Just struggling to win.

Other runners:

 4. Surreal Step ($20.6), 5. Hulk ($20.6).

 

Race 4

Overview: Not much between Improvement and Greyworm and I’ll lean the way of Improvement at the better odds. She beat home Greyworm two back (meets Greyworm 2.5kg better off for doing so as well) and then was trapped four wide without cover last start in Melbourne in a race that rated really well. The 1400m is as far as she wants. Greyworm is likeable. He got all the favours last start but maps to get the same run here. Luvaluva has trialled well leading into her return but she always does that. She wasn’t far off them in the Toy Show first-up two preps back. Gresham looks next best.

Advice: Leaning to Improvement over Greyworm only simply from a price perspective.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Greyworm should roll to the front with Improvement right there as well. Got Unders and Gresham the other two prominent. Speed looks below average.

Likely market trend: Gap between Greyworm and Improvement should tighten from $2.40 v $4.80.

Selections: 9-5-3-6

9. Improvement ($4.4): Beat home Greyworm two back on merits and meets that horse 2.5kg better off for doing so. Four wide no cover last start at Caulfield and battled on OK considering (race run 5L quicker California Zimbol race on day). Has won at 1400m, other run 1400m best of on pacers in race run to set swoopers.

5. Greyworm ($3): Got the favours but too good when up to 1400m last start winning in solid figures. Beaten by Improvement prior at this track albeit 1200m. Horse to beat but gap between Improvement and Greyworm perhaps too much?

3. Luvaluva ($8.9): Always trials well and this was no exception. Group horse on her day. Not far off in a Toy Show first-up two preps back. Runs on.

6. Gresham ($13.5): Consistent type. Lacks a turn of foot but rarely runs a bad race.

Chance at odds

7. Tamarack ($45.4): Trials ordinary (tailed off latest) but he did a similar thing before beating So You Win first-up in average figures last prep. Not sure they will go hard enough for him but not hopeless.Other runners:

1. McCreery ($22.5), 2. Order Again ($45.4), 4. Black On Gold ($34.1), 8. Got Unders ($13.5).

 

Race 5

Overview: Pretty In Pink looks the bet here and I loved her recent trial with the blinkers on. She cruised to the line in the quickest heat of the day by about seven lengths. She has had no luck this prep. First-up, she missed the start and got back in a real sprint home and then second up she copped a nasty check at the start which put her out of action. She can settle closer here and looks the value back to 1200m. Multaja looked a bit disappointing last start but it was a real sit and sprint and she will be better suited out to this trip. Reelem In Ruby was luckless fresh and is likeable although, like every start she contests pretty much, she seems to go around quite short in the market. Nicci’s Gold never runs a bad race fresh and is a good place chance here (knockout hope as well). Against Madame Rouge at the price.

Advice: Pretty In Pink to win.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Ready To Prophet and Spanish Dream look the two most handy with Madam Rouge, Reelem In Ruby and Pretty In Pink behind them. Speed looks even.

Likely market trend: Expecting Pretty In Pink to firm up from $7.50. I think Madam Rouge will drift from $4.60. Reelem In Ruby is also too short but is a popular horse.

Selections: 1-4-9-8

1. Pretty In Pink ($5.7): Blinkers 1st time. Two forgive runs to start the prep for mine. Slow out and back in slowly run race fresh forgive.. Second run smashed at the start and lost ground. Again walked and race shape against. Loved her trial with the blinkers on since. Looked very sharp and 32.46 L600 was very good. Overall time quickest of day by about 7-8L. Parks just off them and looks the overs. Beat Brave Song last prep.

4. Multaja ($7.3): Sit and sprint against fresh over 1000m andit just wasn’t her go at all. Out to 1200m now, more genuinely run race can improve out of sight. Beat Madam Rouge last prep comfortably at Doomben (albeit MR wide?). Can bounce back.

9. Reelem In Ruby ($4.3): Always said she just goes around too short in the market all the time. Talented enough filly who was held up fresh and shoyld have been there. Handle The Truth has won out of that race since. Should improve, maps well. Good chance but $3.30 looks a touch short in open race.

8. Nicci's Gold ($15.8): Always runs a race without fail first-up. 2L off RIR fresh last prep, loved her trial, will be running on. Place chance here at odds.

Other runners:

2. Miss Fabulass ($11.2), 3. Celebrity Dream ($53.1), 5. Moss Trip ($11.2), 6. Ready To Prophet ($12), 7. Madam Rouge ($11.2), 10. Spanish Dream ($53.1).

 

Race 6

Overview: Master Of Wine is the horse to beat but I’m not sure the gap should be as large as it is between him and Attention Run. Attention Run wasn’t beaten far in the Metrop last start and the blinkers come off here after he was just a bit keen last start. He also covered ground (albeit had cover). Master Of Wine was pretty dominant over 2000m last start. The little knock is they set him up for him that day and he didn’t beat much at all opposition wise. He has to handle the step up to 2400m and is not well weighted but he looks the progressive horse all the same. Rapido Chaparro has had a great prep and now steps out to the 2400m. He could be hard to run down if the track is playing on pace. Maurus is building nicely as well.

Advice: Leaning to Attention Run at the price.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Rapido Chaparro leads and dictates. He can run it at what speed he likes. Naval Warfare should be prominent.

Likely market trend: No firm opinion.

Selections: 4-7-6-2

4. Attention Run ($4.2): Will lean his way, just thought the gap between him and MOW shouldn’t be as great. Wide with cover when not far off in the Metrop. Chased home subs winner Hush Writer prior. Blinkers off after being that touch keen LS. Meets Master Of Wine level weights despite being 15 rating points higher.

7. Master Of Wine ($3.1): Steps up to the 2400 after a dominant win last start. Set up for him that day and a few in the market were disappointing but has the turn of foot to get over these. Just thought he was well enough found.

6. Rapido Chaparro ($7): Stepping out to the 2400m the query but racing in grand style. Had it soft in front last two but should be the same. Should kick and just last 200m the query.

2. Maurus ($12.4): Found the line well when third behind Stampede in G3 last start. QL600 of the race off a slow tempo. Doesn’t win often but working towards something.
Other chances:

Other runners:

1. Master Of Arts ($12.4), 3. Naval Warfare ($37.9), 5. Saunter Boy ($37.9), 8. Re Edit ($15), 9. Curata Princess ($151.6), 10. Kelvinside ($101.1).

 

Race 7

Overview: I have to lean the way of Kubrick here. He comes through the A grade form lines of the Golden Rose and Caulfield Guineas and while he was disappointing in the latter, he was wide the whole way. This is many lengths easier and I can understand why he is popular in betting. I think the roughie here is Ballistic Boy. His last two runs have been super in Queensland and he can shape up here at good odds. Just Thinkin’ leads and should prove hard to catch back to the mile while Bottega did start $2.20 in the Stan Fox but had too much work to do there. Colada must also be respected off the last start win in strong figures.

Advice: Leaning to Kubrick.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Just Thinkin’ and Colada like to roll so expecting the pace to be solid here.

Likely market trend: Kubrick could start favourite the way it’s trending on Thursday.

Selections: 1-7-2-5

1. Kubrick ($4.2): Wide and disappointing in Caulf Guineas but comes through A grade form prior. Run in Golden Rose although visually disapp was in solid figures and overall figure stronger than JT on day. Comes through right form, have to forgive last start but gets his chance. Query is grand finals last two starts?

7. Ballistic Boy ($14.1): Seems the one at silly odds. Set up for him two back but closed off strongly and then loved the way he closed off latest in strong late figures. Now 1600- failed 1600m last prep but overraced that day. This isn’t overly strong and his form looks OK.

2. Just Thinkin' ($5.5): Back to mile. Seems a bit short in market considering may have company up front re Colada. Still looks to lead and thinking this track on pace. Hard to catch but still too short to back.

5. Bottega ($6.6): Started $2.20 v $20 Colada last start. Just got too far back but made a long run. Blinkers now. Peaked late on the run LS but he had to make long run. Must be in the mix off last start SP alone.

Other chances:

3. Colada ($8.3): Led and kept going to win well LS. Doubt he gets it his own way up front here but ran time LS and did it both ends!

Other runners:

4. Erno ($17.7), 6. Pancho ($14.1),9. Zebrowski ($142), 10. Koowerup ($10).

Race 8

Overview: I thought Poised To Strike was the value here off a complete forgive run fresh. He never got out in the straight and he did beat Testifier comfortably enough in a trial leading into this prep as well. Safado is now with the Chris Waller yard after Kim Waugh did a really good job with this horse). I loved the way he found the line in a recent trial and he has always been a talent. Testifier is unbeaten but I would have liked to have seen a bit more at the trials? Coterie next best and he was OK fresh without raving about.

Advice: Poised To Strike at the odds.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Speed looks solid here. Man Of Peace should lead if he gets a run. Otherwise, Malea Magic, Aylmerton and Cuban Royale should be there. Does Coterie go forward?

Likely market trend: Poised To Strike should firm up a touch.

Selections: 3-8-9-12

3. Poised To Strike ($5.5): Had Testifier’s measure in a recent trial and then had no luck at all first up when couldn’t get a crack at them. Form last prep was solid (including a luckless effort at Caulfield) where he arguably should have won.

8. Cuban Royale ($21): Good win fresh and does have some good form lines last prep. Maps well too.

9. Testifier ($6): Beware the unbeaten horse- Just got there in three wins and recent trials just fair? Will be likeable due to record but preferred PTS trial in same heat and then second trial was just OK.

15. Man Of Peace ($10): Trialled well leading in and did win a weaker race at this t/d first-up last prep. Looks the leader.

 

 

Other runners:

2. Grimoire ($10.6), 4. Ronstar ($16), 5. My True Love ($43), 7. Aylmerton ($32.5), 10. Paquirri ($21.5), 11. What Could Be ($32.5),  12. Coterie ($10), 13. Roosevelt ($10.6), 14. Malea Magic ($21.5), 

 

Race 9

Overview: I think she is around her right price in a tricky race but I want to be with Sure Knee here. She did about as much as she could fresh off a slow tempo and her close second behind a subsequent Group 1 winner in Princess Jenni second up last prep would have her probably winning this. The form around Bergen looks good after Sakura, Dunbrody Power and Tahsin all won out of the race he comes through on Wednesday. Sausedge bolted in last start in much weaker grade and has to be respected, while Romani Girl was up sharply in trip last start and should improve.

Advice: Leaning to Sure Knee.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Miss Redoble, Bergen and potentially Mercurial Lad roll forward. Mercurial Lad can be a bold front runner but went back last start? Speed depends on his tactics.

Likely market trend: No firm opinion.

Selections: 3-5-15-11

3. Sure Knee ($4.3): Did about as much as she could first-up in a real sit and sprint race. She was strong late and her last 200 of 11.28 was 4th quickest of the day. 2nd up last prep beaten a lip by subsequent G1 winner Princess Jenni in a race where they gapped the rest.

5. Bergen ($7.8): He just rarely runs a bad race. On the up, good record, solid fresh run in race which has produced three subsequent winners and maps well behind this speed.

15. Sausedge ($8.4): Just going OK and then out to 1400m last start and gapped her rivals. Had the low weight and race set up but overall figures solid, Maps well, T Clark takes the ride.

11. Romani Girl ($7): Strong late figures to score fresh and then up sharply in trip and perhaps too close off strong speed when fighting second. Back 100m here but fitter.

Other runners:

1. Mercurial Lad ($33.6), 2. Sir Pippin ($44.8), 4. El Mo ($11), 6. Final Award ($13), 8. Stryke Rock ($26.9), 9. Oakfield Missile ($89), 12. Napoleon Solo ($11), 13. Tunero ($67.2).

 



Brad Davidson preview Randwick October 26 - Brad Davidson preview Randwick October 26


FACEBOOK

FEEDBACK

TIPS

TWITTER

LISTEN

BSB Supporters