Advertisement
TAB.com.au | Sky Racing | Sky Sports Radio

Back to Expert Comment

Brad Davidson preview Rosehill November 2

BRAD DAVIDSON PREVIEW ROSEHILL NOVEMBER 2 Oct 31 2019

*Golden Eagle Day at Rosehill

Best value plays: **Prices before deductions for best bets

Race 6 no.13 Morton’s Fork $15 (rated $12, confidence 6/10)

I wish he drew a barrier but Morton’s Fork looks a good roughie here regardless. He should have won at Moonee Valley last Friday night simple as that and I thought he was really good with a huge weight off a slow tempo in the Port Macquarie Cup prior (winner is a decent horse). I thought his run was just as good as Dealmaker’s when they met earlier this prep (he meets Dealmaker 4kg better from that day) and he beat Mahamedis comfortably at Flemington in May over 2000m (meets him 5kg better for that day too). He also beat home Winning Ways (scratched here but was half his price) this prep. I’m not sure what they do re tactics from the wide draw though.

Race 7 no.17 Fasika $19 (rated $12.50, confidence 6/10)

*Kolding on top but Fasika is the bet at $21. She is the best roughie in the race. 3rd up she still has improvement to come and wasn’t much between her and The Inevitable last start. Loved how strong she was late. By So You Think, looks like she will appreciate the extra distance. Ready to peak third up! Was a month between runs last start too.

Race 9 no.7 Oakfield Twilight $19 (rated $12, confidence 5/10)

Love the way he is going this prep. Won three of his last 4 with his only loss coming in a Group 3 where he set a strong speed, kicked at the top of the straight and faded late over 1500m. Sectionals and times have been stacking up OK of late.

Best longshot

Race 2 no.19 Upper House $31 (rated $17, confidence 5/10)

Happy to speck at the 41s. Might find it too short but has a good fresh record and did beat Zardoro last prep in a Highway (Zardoro should have been in the finish with him but one is $7 and the other $41). Can run a cheeky race fresh.

Best outside of Rosehill

Newcastle

Race 5 no.2 Game Of Thorns $8

Couldn't keep up fresh but they went very hard early and this horse found the line nicely. Extra trip and smaller field should suit here and form lines last prep were strong for this. Might need one more but at $8 happy to gamble here.

 

Expected firmers:

Expected drifters:

Race 1 no.4 Faretti $2.60 ($4.40-$2.60 but I thought he was fair at best LS and his mdn win sectionally was just OK. Looks a good risk at $2.90)

Race 5 no.2 Miss Invincible $3.50 (always well found in the market. Chance again but too short for mine)

Race 8 no.1 Pierata $2.80 (great chance but $2.80 seems skinny with the map if they go back?)

Betting strategy

****I’ve decided to offer the two different strategies going forward. The normal strategy will be the same one I’ve been doing since August, the long game strategy will be the 100 unit betting bank idea. I understand that both strategies will suit different styles of punters, so please pick the one that suits you and gamble responsibly.

 

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less.

 

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

 

Normal strategy (105 units)

Race 2 no.12 Fair Dinkum 10 unit win at $8

Race 2 no.19 Upper House 5 unit win at $31

Race 4 no.7 Junglized 15 unit win at $10

Race 5 no.9 Ballistica 5 unit win at $13

Race 6 no.13 Morton’s Fork 10 unit win at $15

Race 7 no.17 Fasika 10 unit win at $19

Race 9 no.7 Oakfield Twilight 10 unit win at $19

Rosehill 10 unit early quaddie (starts r2, 12.3%): 1st leg: 19,12,4. 2nd leg: 1,6,3. 3rd leg: 7,2,5. 4th leg: 5,9,7.

Rosehill 10 unit main quaddie (starts r6, 7.81%): 1st leg: 13,10,1,15. 2nd leg: 17-3-15-4. 3rd leg: 2,1,12,13. 4th leg: 7,3.

Newcastle:

Race 5 no.2 Game Of Thorns 15 unit win at $8

Flemington 

Race 6 no.3 Accession 5 unit win tote (should drift)

Results: -362 units (-7.5%POT, 4,811 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy (2.75 units)

Race 2 no.12 Fair Dinkum 0.25 unit win at $8

Race 2 no.19 Upper House 0.25 unit win at $31

Race 4 no.7 Junglized 0.5 unit win at $10

Race 5 no.9 Ballistica 0.25 unit win at $13

Race 6 no.13 Morton’s Fork 0.25 unit win at $15

Race 7 no.17 Fasika 0.25 unit win at $19

Race 9 no.7 Oakfield Twilight 0.25 unit win at $19

Newcastle:

Race 5 no.2 Game Of Thorns 0.5 unit win at $8 (forgive first-up run where they went too hard. Right in this).

Flemington

Race 6 no.3 Accession 0.25 unit win tote (should drift)

 

Results: First week (previous six months: +4.8 unit profit (3.3% POT, 141.3 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Rail true, good track

8/09/2018         Rosehill              True      h8         On pace early but chopped out late and winners came wider                              

3/11/2018         Rosehill              True      G4         On pace a bit of an advantage but could make sground still. Got wider as day went on. Hard fence not place but could win cppl off                              

24/11/2018       Rosehill              True      G4              Confident best ground off fence here 3-4 wide seemed place to be in straight. Just didn't really want to be hard fence or out too wide                             

19/01/2019       Rosehill              True      G4         On pace helped. Probably ddin't want to be hard fence. Most winnerd wide but still some close to fence won                                        

16/03/2019       Rosehill              True      H10              Getting a few off fence here and wider good too.                                 

18/05/2019       Rosehill              True      G4              Pretty fair track, fence OK but I still reckon wider the better and fence sl inferior. Lanes 3-6 OK but wider fine too                                    

29/06/2019       Rosehill              True      H9         bit on pace to start with but swooped last few races and evened up midway. Fence a no go here Wanted to get middle and wider.                             

10/08/2019       Rosehill              True      G4              Pretty fair although I reckon hard fence was inferior up to two lanes out                                 

28/09/2019       Rosehill              True      G4         Fence in run slight adv, lanes ok in str- mixed bag       

Wind: Gentle winds                   

Assessment: Generally away from the fence, on pace advantage early and then evens up late.

 

Race 1

Overview: Faretti has been $4.20-$3 since markets opened and I’m trying to understand why. I thought he was just fair last start and I think he is very short here and I have to take him on (maiden win prior was impressive to the eye but the figures didn’t stack up). Betcha Flying should have won last start and I would be more confident at 1600m but she is going really well. She is also entered for a race at Flemington on Tuesday as well? Indy Car is not the type of horse I would make a case for coming off a provincial maiden win where they went very hard and walked home but he looks untapped and should relish the step up to 1400m. Rule The World should roll to the front, gets the blinkers on and he will be hard to catch. Grand Piano should love the step up in trip as well.

Advice: Indy Car to win.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Rule The World, Special Snap and Faretti look most prominent. Speed looks decent here.

Likely market trend: Faretti has to drift from $2.50?

Selections: 11-2-5-4

11. Indy Car ($5.3): At the right price to have a nibble. Race set up for on debut and L600 was slow but he was backed late, should love 1400m and Tommy Berry jumps off Moreno to ride him.

2. Rule The World ($4.1): Blinkers on. 2/2, should lead and be hard to catch. Trials have been solid.

5. Grand Piano ($9.9): Set up for but closed off last start in a race run to suit. Looked like 1400m would suit from the start of the prep. Can be strong late here.

4. Faretti ($5.3): $4.20-$3 but why? Won a maiden first up but time was just fair and second horse has failed. Then plugged last start. Looks a great risk at $3 for mine.

Other runners:

6. Moreno ($12), 7. Special Snap ($12), 8. Atlantic King ($20), 9. Autocratic ($20), 10. Elvezio ($121),

 

Race 2

Overview: The scratching of Luna Mia has blown this race wide open. I'm happy to have a speck at Upper House at the $41 here. He beat Zardoro (who should have finished closer) in a Highway last prep and I think he is underrated. The 1200m is short enough all the same but I spoke to trainer Norm Gardner yesterday and he thinks he is a good chance here. He won first-up last prep albeit at 1400m. Fair Dinkum is the horse to beat and he has been really good at his past couple of starts. He just missed in a strong rating Highway race last start. Zardoro has had no luck at all of late and also must be respected. 

Advice: Upper House the speck at 41s.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Strong tempo expected with Fearnely. Coup De Main and Art Of Dance up there.

Likely market trend: No firm opinion.

Selections: 19-12-4-10

19. Upper House ($13.9): Happy to speck at the 41s. Might find it too short but has a good fresh record and did beat Zardoro last prep in a Highway (Zardoro should have been in the finish with him but one is $7 and the other $41). Can run a cheeky race fresh.

12. Fair Dinkum ($6.5): Brings the best form into the race, just has a tough gate. Second to Marakawa in recent Highway in strong figures.

4. Zardoro ($7.3): No luck at all lately. Held up until halfway up straight latest but didn’t finish off when  out. Should appreciate extra trip.

10. Plonka ($7.9): Disappointing last start but started right in the market and win prior was effortless. Respecting.

Other runners:

1. Coup De Main ($16), 3. Pauldron ($37), 6. Gumshoe ($11.1), 7. Rhyming Puppet ($74.6), 8. Katgully Red ($22.4), 9. Acquittal ($13.9), 11. Art Of Dance ($28), 13. Hard Merchandise ($18.5), 14. Fearnley ($56), 15. Gem Dealer ($13.9),  17. Magic Town ($56).

 

Race 3

Overview: Messy race this with not much speed at all on paper. Asterius exploded to win well second up last prep although it was visually more impressive than on the clock. He did as much as he could first-up considering the slow tempo and just maps awkwardly again in another slow run race. Thy Kingdom Come has been knocking on the door. I like the booking of Nash Rawiller and my only knock is 1500m is on his outer limits. Aqua D’vina runs on.

Advice: Asterius on top. Aqua D'Vina runs well at odds.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Speed looks below average here. Thy Kingdom Come, Turnberry and Mushareib should be there.

Likely market trend: Asterius could firm a touch from $5.

Selections: 1-6-3-4

1.Asterius ($3.5): Did as much as he could first-up considering slow tempo of race. Exploded to win second up last prep albeit more visually impressive than on the clock. Needs luck but should be strong late.

6. Thy Kingdom Come ($4.2): Missed the start and had to work too early two back, then got back off speed and closed off behind a subsequent winner latest.

3. Aqua D'Ivina ($9): Missed the start and had to work too early two back, then got back off speed and closed off behind a subsequent winner latest. Ear muffs off a big key.

4. Strome ($9): Next best.

Other runners:

2. Turnberry ($18.2), 7. Sir Pippin ($15), 8. Mr Reckless ($36), 9. Super Star Bob ($10).

 

Race 4

Overview: Pretty competitive race this. I thought the $10 was slight overs about Junglized and he goes well fresh, gets a good run and should be there at the finish somewhere. He doesn’t win out of turn but he is never far away and might be able to capitalise on what looks a strong speed. Special Reward draws a tricky gate with speed inside but comes out of a very good rating race in Melbourne last start where she faded late, while Beau Ideal and Ljungberg will both be finding the line well.

Advice: Leaning to Junglized at the odds.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Solid speed expected here with Special Reward, Catesby and Discussions rolling forward.

Likely market trend: No firm opinion.

Selections: 7-2-5-8

7. Junglized ($6.5): Never far away. Two nice trials coming in. Should land behind a hot speed and 1100m, good track, Rosehill is about right for him. Competitive in this grade fresh last time in.

2. Special Reward ($5.8): Solid fresh in strong rating race in Melbourne. Has a great winning strike and was winning with ease in Perth prior

5. Beau Ideal ($4.8): Nice tickover trial when found the line under a hold (expect that though mid prep trial and overall time + L600 much slower than Discussions on day

8. Ljungberg ($7.4): Nice enough horse who has trialled up well enough. Potentially been a touch overplayed to date but he should relish this strong speed and close off late.

Other runners:

1. Sandbar ($11.6), 3. Akasaki ($10.4), 6. Catesby ($14.9), 9. Discussions ($13).

 

Race 5

Overview: Open race. Dance Hall Girl has been freshened after not running out the 1400m last start and I think she rolls to the front here and should be hard to get past. I want to make a case for Ballistica at odds and she has been a bit disappointing at her past couple but her run three back behind Miss Invincible on a day where it was hard to make ground would have her in this. I don’t mind the booking of Jason Collett. Segalas has done a really good job this prep and she overcame a wide run last start to win and beat a subsequent winner in Appian Way in the process. Lisdoonvarna has claims, while Miss Invincible seems a false favourite for mine and 1200m looks a query.

Advice: Dance Hall Girl on top. Ballistica can run on if the trac is fair.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Dance Hall Girl and Miss Invincible look the two leaders with Segalas parking behind. Speed looks moderate.

Likely market trend: Expecting Miss Invincible to drift from $3.60.

Selections: 5-9-7-2

5. Dance Hall Girl ($3.7): Dance Hall Girl has been freshened after not running out the 1400m last start and I think she rolls to the front here and should be hard to get past. Won prior when able to get a soft time on speed beating Sakura who has won since.Beat Lisdoonvarna first up as well.

9. Ballistica ($10.6): Been a touch disappointing her past two starts but they zipped home in good figures two back and I liked her run behind Miss Invincible on a day where it was hard to make ground.

7. Segalas ($6.5): has done a really good job this prep and she overcame a wide run last start to win and beat a subsequent winner in Appian Way in the process/ Rolls forward.

2. Miss Invincible ($7): Rolls forward, on pace favours. Bit disappointing last start and now 1200m? Has claims for sure but too short,.

Other runners:

1. Lisdoonvarna ($7.5), 3. Freehearted ($21.3),  8. Jen Rules ($8.7), 10. Eveleigh ($35.5), 11. Our Rosemaree ($106.4).

 

Race 6

Overview: I wish he drew a barrier but Morton’s Fork looks a good roughie here regardless. He should have won at Moonee Valley last Friday night simple as that and I thought he was really good with a huge weight off a slow tempo in the Port Macquarie Cup prior (winner is a decent horse). I thought his run was just as good as Dealmaker’s when they met earlier this prep (he meets Dealmaker 4kg better from that day) and he beat Mahamedis comfortably at Flemington in May over 2000m (meets him 5kg better for that day too). He also beat home Winning Ways (scratched here but was half his price) this prep. I’m not sure what they do re tactics from the wide draw though. Tally, Antilles (international form solid enough and hearing good things about how he has settled in), Dealmaker and Mahamedis are all chances.

Advice: Morton’s Fork looks one of the better roughies on the card. 

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Harper’s Choice rolls forward with Master Of Arts but then it’s up in the air. Does Morton’s Fork roll forward? What does Emperor’s Way do? Hard race to map.

Likely market trend: Hard to know how they will treat this import, Antilles.

Selections: 13-10-1-15

13. Morton's Fork ($11.8): I wish he drew a barrier but Morton’s Fork looks a good roughie here regardless. He should have won at Moonee Valley last Friday night simple as that and I thought he was really good with a huge weight off a slow tempo in the Port Macquarie Cup prior (winner is a decent horse). I thought his run was just as good as Dealmakers when they met earlier this prep (he meets Dealmaker 4kg better from that day), beat Mahamedis comfortably at Flemington in May over 2000m (meets him 5kg better for that day too) and he beat home Winning Ways (scratched here but was half his price) this prep. I’m not sure what they do re tactics from the wide draw though?

10. Antilles ($5.3): Hard to line up. Reports have been good. Seems a bit one paced but not far away in Group 2 before coming over. 53kg gets in well here and can only run well.

1. Tally ($4.9): Comes through the A grade form lines. Ran on well last start behind Happy Clapper in a very strong run race. Query I have is whether he wants further and he doesn’t win out of turn?

15. Dealmaker ($5.5): Had a really good prep. 2000m now for a horse that can be a touch keen but must be among the main hopes.

Other runners:

4. Abdon ($45), 5. Le juge ($36), 6. The Lord Mayor ($45), 7. Chapada ($16), 8. Master Of Arts ($22), 9. The Candy Man ($90), 11. Emperor's Way ($13.6), 12. Harper's Choice ($60), 14. Another Dollar ($17.8).

 

Race 7

Overview: Strong first edition of The Golden Eagle. The value has probably gone with Kolding but I think he profiles well here off a tough Epsom win where he sat close to a very strong speed and fought off a subsequent Cox Plate placegetter in Te Akau Shark. He maps well too. Hard to knock Arcadia Queen but $2.90 seems short. She will appreciate the 1500m and could easily bounce back after she was OK back in trip in The Everest (copped a check late too). I think the best roughie in the race comfortably is Fasika. Both her runs this time in have been really good and being by So You Think the 1500m could really suit her here. She was a month between runs last start and I think she is overs here at $21 and the bet in the race third up. I’m against Brutal. He is a very nice horse and I could easily be wrong but most of his best runs have come on wet ground and the barrier looks sticky. Classique Legend could go either way after his luckless Everest run. He has always profiled like a 1400m-miler.

Advice: Kolding on top but the value lies with Fasika at $21.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Speed looks strong with Sunlight and Brutal pushing on with Never No More, Jonker and Mizzy up there. Fasika behind them.

Likely market trend: Expecting the gap between Kolding and Arcadia Queen to tighten from $5 v $2.90. AQ should drift.

Selections: 17-3-15-4

17. Fasika ($12.6): Best roughie in the race and the bet at $21. 3rd up still has improvement to come and wasn’t much between her and The Inevitable last start. Loved how strong she was late. By So You Think, looks like she will appreciate the extra distance. Ready to peak third up!

3. Kolding ($4.8): Been a different since he was gelded a few preps back. Enormous in the Epsom, absorbing so much pressure on speed and fighting off a subsequent Cox Plate placegetter. Kept fresh for this. Horse to beat.

15. Arcadia Queen ($4.3): Should love the 1500m but $2.90 seems skinny? Blocked out late in The Everest but she was just fairly when she got the check. Untapped and that was an unsuitable race. Can easily bounce back but seems skinny price wise.

4. The Inevitable ($8.9): Just a ripper isn’t he? Small in stature but big in heart. The quicker they go, the better off he will be. Great chance here and could easily win this. Latest win over Fasika was in strong figures. Advice: Castelvecchio the bet at $4.80. Could also speck him at $51 in the Cox Plate market as well as if he wins this, I reckon he will go that way.

Other chances:

 1. Brutal ($8.9): Just found the distance too short last start but was brave in defeat. Classy horse but maps awkwardly and best runs have been on wet ground?

2. Classique Legend ($10.8): Luckless in Everest. Always profiled like a 1400m-miler. My concern is the last 50m of his races, he doesn’t seem to be super strong the last 50m or so. Chance but could also be a prep away.

Other runners:

5. Gem Song ($51.5), 7. Behemoth ($128.6), 8. Military Zone ($64.3), 9. Jonker ($257.3), 10. Fun Fact ($100), 11.Beat Le Bon ($128.6), 12. Never No More ($64.3), 13. I Am Superman ($64.3), 14. Sunlight ($28.3), 16. Mizzy ($28.3).

 

Race 8

Overview: I think the pattern of the day will be all important here. If they’re getting to the middle of the track and running on then it’s going to help horses like Trekking and Pierata. I think Pierata is short enough at $2.80. I know he was held up the other day but Trekking was still stronger late and I think they should be closer together in the market. The Everest was run about nine lengths quicker than the Sydney Stakes on the day and while most of that was tempo related, it’s still telling. Champagne Cuddles is the one who is going to get the gun run and you could argue she should have won the Sydney Stakes (held up first part of the straight). If it’s hard to make ground, she is the one at odds that runs well. I know he is horribly weighted but I expect Kapajack to settle closer and run a cheeky race here. I thought his run against The Inevitable and co was good enough for this.

Advice: Track pattern key. Leaning to Trekking. 

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Home Of The Brave should roll along in front with Le Romain and Champagne Cuddles just behind them. Speed doesn’t look strong.

Likely market trend: I think Pierata will get out from $2.80 if they go back.

Selections: 2-1-12-13

2. Trekking ($4): Won the Schillachi in strong figures and while set up for in The Everest, he was strong late. Drifts back again, can they run on? Going well, 1300m no issue. Won a Stradbroke at 1400m.

1. Pierata ($4): Found the line well enough in The Everest after being held up. Gets back but did SP much shorter than Trekking there and form prior was faultess.

12. Champagne Cuddles ($7.6): Probably should have won the Sydney Stakes. Lands in the first few here and will be a fair way in front of Pierata, Trekking and Deprive on the turn.

13. Fiesta ($16.1): C Waller hinted she would need the run fresh off the one trial and she ran on really well but will really come on from that. Gets back the query but can run a decent race from back here.

Other chances:

6. Deprive ($11.4): Brilliant win from the back LS in Sydney Stakes. Queries are gets back, unbeaten at Randwick and now at Rosehill                                              

11. Kapajack ($19.5): Had to go right back but closed off solidly in Silver Eagle. Poorly weighted but untapped, can settle closer and is a place chance at odds here.

Other runners:

3. Home Of The Brave ($39.4), 4. Mister Sea Wolf ($39.4), 5. Le Romain ($39.4), 7. Brave Song ($27.9), 8. Easy Eddie ($39.4), 9. Redouble ($49.3).

Race 9

Overview: Outrageous has been well supported in early markets and he does have the best form for this. He maps well and the only knock for mine is he doesn’t win out of turn and can find one better on the day. I think there is a good roughie in the shape of Oakfield Twilight. I know he has only been winning in weaker grade of late but he looks to lead and roll along here and he is the type of horse that gives a big kick at the top of the straight and just needs to try to hold on. He can run a big race here. Charretera has trialled well leading in and maps to get every chance, while Spring Charlie was slow to recover fresh but would be right in this at his best.

Advice: Oakfield Twilight the value.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Oakfield Twilight looks the standout leader here with Charretera not far away. Prometheus should also press forward.

Likely market trend: Outrageous should be popular.

Selections: 7-3-10-5

7. Oakfield Twilight ($12.1): Love the way he is going this prep. Won three of his last 4 with his only loss coming in a Group 3 where he set a strong speed, kicked at the top of the straight and faded late over 1500m. Sectionals and times have been stacking up OK of late.

3. Outrageous ($2.8): Horse to beat- Went to line with Reelem In Ruby and Signore Fox fresh. Zoutori form last prep reads really well, maps well, claim and hard to beat. Just doesn’t win out of turn and can find one better a lot?

10. Charreterra ($7): Two nice trials leading in. Solid prep last time in but didn’t really go on. Maps well though and late betting might help with some intel on how he has returned

5. Destiny's Own ($15.9): Trialled well enough leading in behind Kolding. Looks ready to go.

Other chances:

1. Spring Charlie ($9.3): Slow to recover first-up in Port Mac sprint. Late drifter there, won a trial in solid fashion since. How has he come back?

Other runners:

2. Grimoire ($15.9), 4. Brazen ($80),  6. Juventus ($12.1), 8. Defeat ($32), 9. Prometheus ($40).



Brad Davidson preview Rosehill November 2 - Brad Davidson preview Rosehill November 2


FACEBOOK

FEEDBACK

TIPS

TWITTER

LISTEN

BSB Supporters