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Brad Davidson preview Warwick Farm Nov 27

BRAD DAVIDSON PREVIEW WARWICK FARM NOV 27 Nov 27 2019

Warwick Farm

Best bet:

Race 7 no.2 Embracer $2.50 (rated $2.30, confidence 8/10)

Loved his trials leading in and he should lead these and be very hard to catch. The blinkers coming off should help him relax as well. His latest trial was 1.8s quicker any other trial on day over 1045m and the 33.19 L600 was very slick. Showed good ability last prep, should go on with it here.

Other shorties hard to beat

Race 2 no.6 Loveseat $2 (rated $1.90)

Back to 2110m not ideal but has a turn of speed and should be too classy for these.

Race 5 no.5 Zaniah $2 (rated $2)

At her right price, but looks an exciting mare, who should roll forward here and prove hard to beat. Her two wins last prep were effortless.

Best value

Race 6 no.13 Ondo Pasa $13 (rated $10.90, confidence 5/10)  (also backing no.5 Shadow Flight)

Sneaky run at Newcastle last start and just hope she can settle a touch closer. Going well.

 

Best bet Wyong Thursday

Race 7 no.7 Commute $2.70 (rated $2.60, confidence 8/10)

Just bumped into a smart one last start but they ran time and she comes out clearly on top here.

 

Betting strategy

****I’ve decided to offer the two different strategies going forward. The normal strategy will be the same one I’ve been doing since August, the long game strategy will be the 100 unit betting bank idea. I understand that both strategies will suit different styles of punters, so please pick the one that suits you and gamble responsibly.

 

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less.

 

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

 

Normal strategy (190 units)

Race 2 no.6 Loveseat 30 unit win tote

Race 6 no.13 Ondo Pasa 10 unit win at tote

Race 6 no.5 Shadow Flight 10 unit win tote

Race 7 no.2 Embracer 60 unit win at $2.50 (*half of the bet to be recorded at $2.50 and other half tote)

10 unit multi- Race 2 no.6 Loveseat to win tote into Race 5 no.5 Zaniah to win ($2) into Race 7 no.2 Embracer to win ($2.50).

10 unit main quaddie (25%, starts r4): 1st leg: 5,4,9,2. 2nd leg:5. 3rd leg: 13,11,5,2,7. 4th leg: 2,10.

Wyong Thursday

Race 7 no.7 Commute 60 unit win at $2.70

Results: -537.4 units (-9.3% POT, 5721 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

Long game strategy (5.5 units)

Race 2 no.6 Loveseat 1 unit win at tote

Race 6 no.13 Ondo Pasa 0.25 unit win tote

Race 6 no.5 Shadow Flight 0.25 unit win tote

Race 7 no.2 Embracer 2 unit win at $2.50 (*half of the bet to be recorded at $2.50 and other half tote)

Wyong Thursday

Race 7 no.7 Commute 2 unit win at $2.70

Results: -4.5 units (-17.9%POT, 25.15 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Rail position: True.

History of track bias:    

13/03/2019       WF        True      S7          On pace first few lanes first half of meet then wider the better when rain came just before r5               

1/05/2019         WF        True      g4          Rails in run accounted for 6 of 7 winners                  

12/06/2019       WF        True      S6          Fence off here and close to it. OK from about 3-4 wide onwards                         

31/07/2019       WF        True      g4          Pretty fair although lanes 3-5 probably best                        

18/09/2019       WF        True      H10       Wide and middle an advantage here                      

23/10/2019       WF        True      G3         Off the fence here, didn't want to be hard fence. Lanes 2-3 onwards and getting wider late in day               

Assessment: Pretty fair. If anything off fence (particularly if track is in soft range).     

Wind: Light winds.

 

Race 1

Overview: Hard race to assess. Can literally make a case for every one of these runners.

Advice: Upper East Side the value?

Confidence: 4/10.

Speed map: Mr Mosaic leads with Sulking, Just Field and Fituese not far away. Speed looks moderate to even.

Likely market trend: No comment.

Selections: 2-5-1-7

2. Upper East Side ($9.3): Won 3 of past 4 starts. Going great guns. Latest win more than 1s quicker than on day than other 1000m race.

5. Fituesse ($4): Won in fair figures fresh (about 3L slower other 900m race on day but was tempo related) then no luck second up. Blocke for run in str. Just fair late? 16 subs st both races 0 winners.

1. Mr Mosaic ($4.8): Impressive in 2 runs to date. Time was 1s quicker than other 2 x 1000m races on day. Wom im slow time on debut? 2.6s slower Cl2 on day! Up 4kg. 4 subs st LS 0 pl.

7. Sulking ($7.3): Won well on debut in Qld (form out of race mixed) and soft trial leading in. Change of stable. Betting?

Other chances:

3. Kateru ($7.3): Blinkers 1st time, lugging bit. Hasn’t been let go in four career trials to date including two this time in. Hasn’t worn blinkers in either trial this prep.

4. Just Field ($8.5): Two trials just OK. Beat Regimental Band on debut then OK behind Libertini.

 

 

Race 2

Overview: Hard to tip against Loveseat. She is back in trip but she has a turn of foot and should be too good for these. Dark Pearl didn’t have a lot of luck last start and has been crying out for this trip. He can improve sharply. Art Attack didn’t have much luck last start but how do we line up that Country Classic form? No knock on California Firebird but he is a bit one paced.

Advice: Loveseat to win

Confidence: 8/10.

Speed map: No speed here. Guise may take it up with Art Attack? Loveseat should be handier.

Likely market trend: Loveseat should start odds on.

Selections: 6-4-3-5

6. Loveseat ($1.9): overcame a slow tempo to score in good fashion last start and late fogires were good. Should be too strong late despite the drop back in trip.

4. Dark Pearl ($11.5): Run was better than it looked LS and winning distance range 2000-2400m. JMAC on. Hasn’t won for a while.

3. Californiafirebird ($8.1): Got there right on the line LS to score. No match for Plaisir earlier. Bit one paced but runs well again.

5. Art Attack ($14): Last 3 runs have all been good. Couldn’t get out until 200m mark latest. Time out of race was solid enough.

Other chances:

Other runners:

1. Guise ($9.9), 2. Baanone ($14).

 

Race 3

Overview: Good little race. Happy to lean the way of Starla and she took a while to breakthrough but has been clocking some good splits. Her race was run much quicker than Bigboyroy’s on the same day last start. Dorothy Of Oz goes 1200 to 1600m here but she was taken on in front last start at a strong speed and did a great job to stick on as well as she did.

Advice: Leaning to Starla from Dorothy Of Oz.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Dorothy Of Oz should lead with Golwen (blinkers on) handy. Speed should be genuine.

Likely market trend: Starla and Dorothy Of Oz will have their supporters.

Selections: 4-6-5-3

4. Starla ($2.30): Chased hard two back then far too good latest. Time stacked up well v Bigboyroy on day. Up to 60kg now but the one to beat,

6. Dorothy Of Oz ($2.7): Beat a subsequent winner first-up then couldn’t find the front in strong run race where stuck on well. 1200m to 1600m now the query but finds the front and should roll. Placed at 1400m already. Mum won up to 2400m

5. Gone Bye ($10.5): Got the job done on debut and L200 of 11.20 was good (overall slightly slower than other mdn on day). Fought back. Nash on.  Horse in photo with there finished 2L behind Bigboyroy prior?

3. Golwen ($24.7): Next best.

Other chances:

Other runners:

7. Saint Ambrose ($50.2), 8. Flinders ($75.3).

 

Race 4

Overview: Good race. I loved the way Miss Sure Shot has trialled leading in and she looks to have improved this prep. Tracy May has the A grade form lines last prep and I just would have liked to have seen her settle in her recent trial. Lady Herbert comes through a very strong race, while Avion Fury also has cheeky claims at odds.

Advice: Leaning to Miss Sure Shot but deep race!

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Not a lot of speed here. Miss Sure Shot rolls forward. Tracy May was ridden quiet in a recent trial but has speed? Speed looks moderate.

Likely market trend: Could go a few ways here.

Selections: 5-4-9-2

5. Miss Sure Shot ($3.3): Loved her two trials this time in. Looks to have come back a better horse. Solid in two runs last prep (latest comes through mdn which was quicker benchmark race on day). This more depth but looks to have improved.

4. Tracy May ($4): Soft trial coming in.Was a bit keen there. Chased home two stakeswinners debut then no match for a G3 winner second up. 2nd horse city placed, 4th horse winner Dorothy Of Oz, 5th horse a Flem winner Celestian Falls, 7th horse G3 Spring Stakes winner Asiago.

9. Lady Herbert ($8.1): Comes through a very strong race fresh- 1-2L quicker than the open race on day and that’s merit. 2md has won since, few nice placings out of race too. Was a bit slow out there but winkers, T Clark on. Starts and keen in run the queries?

2. Avion Fury ($9.9): Made good ground on debut on day where hard to, Former Maher/Eustace, now Parker. Wide gate? Nash on- Loved the trial coming in- Time in trial easily quickest of day and made ground late.

Other runners:

3. Somnus ($17.3), 6. Enduring Night ($49), 7. Saas Fee ($24.5), 8. Riot Act ($61.3), 9. Lady Herbert ($7), 10. #REF! ($23.2), 11. Rose To Victory ($20.1),.

 

Race 5

Overview: Hard to go past Zaniah and she looks promising. There is that query at 1100m though so she is probably at about her right price all the same. I liked the win of Super Longlea first-up and I just wish it was a bit further. Looks the only danger.

Advice: Zaniah on top but no value.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Zaniah is up there along with Glamour Cat and Whiskey Shooter. Speed looks even.

Likely market trend: Zaniah will be popular.

Selections: 5-6-4-2

5. Zaniah ($2): Well bred- Bolted in both runs last prep. 9 subs st 0 pl out of last win. .2s quicker than mdn on day latest but wasn’t touched. 2nd horse just 3L off in town prior. Two trials have been pleasing. 1100m?

6. Super Longlea ($4.5): Impressive win first-up when clocking best late splits of the day to score well. Slower two maiden on the day but that was tempo related. Just the tricky gate but stroogn late. 3rd horse won since. Stays at 1100m.

4. Sophiella ($12): Checked at top of straight last start but closed off really well late to clock QL200 of race. Just the draw here the issue? Form out of last two races not great.

2. Eveleigh ($13.6): Nice tickover trial since LS where outclassed in town. Won twice in slowish time prior. Beat Brazenpine first-up.

Other chances:

Other runners:

1. Queen Ablaze ($49), 3. Whiskey Shooter ($24.1), 7. Phoebe's Lass ($49.1), 8. Glamour Cat ($98.1), 9. Compatriot ($65.4), 10. Dizzy Miss Lizzy ($98.1), 11. Ally Bally Bee ($392.5),.

 

Race 6

Overview: Tricky race. Twentyfour Carat brings the best rating in here and he does look the horse to beat but there is that slight query on whether he is looking for a bit further. A few good roughies here in Ondo Pasa, Shadow Flight and Commute. Ondo Pasa was really good at Newcastle last start, Shadow Flight really caught the eye fresh and has strong second up stats and Commute just bumped into a smart horse last start.

Advice: Twentyfour Carat the one to beat but Ondo Pasa, Shadow Flight and Commute all run well at odds.

Confidence: 5/10

Speed map: Strong speed expected with Hit The Targer, Snips, Vitesse and Ashton Blair rolling forward.

Likely market trend: Expecting Twentyfour Carat to be popular.

Selections: 13-11-5-2

13. Ondo Pasa ($10.9): Turned a corner last couple- Run was super last start. Just got too far back but finished alongside Vitesse- Speed on last couple and should be a similar story here.

11. Twentyfour Carat ($2.5): Went hard and too good first-up defeating subs winner Starla that day/ Always promised plenty- Gets in lught. Only query is whether he is looking for further?

5. Shadow Flight ($10.9): Stormed home from the back fresh- wasn’t strongest race figures wise but he has good second up starts. 2,5L off Ligulate second up 1400m last prep, won 1400m second up prep before. Hopefully can settle touch closer?

2. Hit The Target ($10.9): Next best.

Other runners:

1. Snips ($10.9), 3. Cisco Bay ($52.3), 4. Ruthless Agent ($19.3), 7. Bringagem ($25.8), 8. Plenty ($15.5), 9. Ashton Blair ($19.3), 14. Dream Habit ($313.8).

 

Race 7

Overview: Hard to go past Embracer and he does look hard to beat. I loved his trial coming in and he should roll to the front and be very hard to catch. Excellent Proposal is two from two and should find the line strongly here, while Petronius has trialled well leading in and looks the other main hope.

Advice: Embracer to win.

Confidence: 8/10.

Speed map: Embracer should lead comfortably with Petronius settling down second. Speed should be genuine as I reckon Embracer rolls.

Likely market trend: Embracer should be well backed.

Selections: 2-10-6-9

2. Embracer ($2.3): Blinkers off- Loved his latest trial- 1.8s quicker any other trial on day over 1045m. 33.19 L600 very slock. Showed good ability last prep, should go on with it here.

10. Petronius ($6.1): Chased home Yao Dash (where he beat Colada home), then won his maiden (2nd horse beaten mdn since) in solid figures. Liked his trial coming in- Has always trialled well?

6. Excellent Proposal ($6.1): Nice trials coming in. Latest trial was about 1.8s slower than Embracer’s on day. 2/2. Figures stacked up well with older horses at Rwick last prep.

9. Skyray ($13.3): Got home first-up and then just missed latest behind Super Longlea who we get a line through earlier. Nash on and going OK this prp.

Other runners:

1. Inanup ($27), 3. The Enzo ($191.6), 4. Crafty Tycoon ($63.9), 5. General Soho ($47.9), 7. Feel The Knight ($#DIV/0!), 8. Irish Songs ($15.5), 11. Katgully Red ($191.6), 12. Johnny Roo Boy ($#DIV/0!), 13. Watching ($95.8).



Brad Davidson preview Warwick Farm Nov 27 - Brad Davidson preview Warwick Farm Nov 27


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