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Brad Davidson preview Randwick Jan 11

BRAD DAVIDSON PREVIEW RANDWICK JAN 11 Dec 7 2019

Meeting:

Randwick

Best bet

Race 3 no.7 Taniko $4.20 (rated $4.10, confidence 7/10)

Got a long way back and unleashed an enormous finish to still get up LS (Quikest L600 and 400 of entire day). Won’t be so far off them here in the small field and keen on her to repeat the dose.

Next best

Race 7 no.1 Asharani $6 (rated $4.50, confidence 7/10)

I have been taken by the two runs back of Asharani and the step up to 1500m looks a plus for mine. I know all her wins have been at 1400m and below but she should have won at 1550m last prep. She boasts a fourth to Kolding at her other run in this distance range

Hardest to beat

Race 4 no.1 Luvaluva $2.40 (rated $2.20, confidence 7/10)

Track assessment: Only one rail at 11m at Randwick in recent history (back in October 2018) and it favoured horses off fence. Generally when rail is out 7m plus at Randwick it is very fair.

 

Gold Coast

Magic Millions 2YO Classic (R7)

2. Farnan- Flying- Track gallop last Saturday by all reports was super. Has the ratings to go close here and maps well.

1. King’s Legacy- Whether he wants further than 1200m is the query but can only be strong late here. Looks a promising 1400/1600 horse in time

7. Nitrous- best roughie in the race0 Loved the way he closed off at Rwick last start and sits just off a solid speed here.

 

Other GC plays

Race 5 no.10 Yamazaki $7

Produced an astonishing 10.5s L200 split at the GC last Saturday to win with leg in air. Last 200m was 2 lengths better than anything on a feature race day. Goes close here.

Race 8 no.8 Smartedge $13 and $4.20

Has been racing really well in Sydney and I like him as a roughie here. Gets back but no weight on his back and speed looks good for him to run on.

 

Randwick

Assessment:Only one rail at 11m at Randwick in recent history (back in October 2018) and it favoured horses off fence. Generally when rail is out 7m plus at Randwick it is very fair.

Wind: Fresh southerly predicted which could help leaders in sprint races of 1200m and below (tailwind of sorts start of race).

 

Normal strategy (255 units overall)

Randwick (130 units for Randwick)

Race 3 no.7 Taniko 20 unit at $4.20

Race 4 no.1 Luvaluva 30 unit win at $2.40

Race 4 no.2 Alward 15 unit place (only two place divs) at $4.80

Race 7 no.1 Asharani 30 unit win at $5.50

Race 8 no.1 Strome 10 unit win tote

Race 9 no.13 Seeingisbelieving 15 unit place tote

10 unit main quaddie (starts r6, 27.77%): 1st leg: 1,3,6,8. 2nd leg: 1,5,10. 3rd leg: 1,2,13. 4th leg: 7.

 

Gold Coast (70 units GC)

Race 5 no.10 Yamazaki 20 unit win at $7

Race 7 no.2 Farnan 13 unit win at $6

Race 7 no.7 Nitrous 2 unit win at $26

Race 8 no.8 Smartedge  10 unit win at $13 and 15  unit place at $4.20

10 unit main quaddie (starts r6, 20.8%): 1st leg: 2. 2nd leg: 1,2,7. 3rd leg: 1,3,6,8. 4th leg: 2,3,5,14.

 

Kembla (55 units)

Race 1 no.4 Toomai 20 unit win at $4

Race 2 no.5 Designated 20 unit win at $3.30

Race 2 no.2 Classic Gaming 15 unit win at $4.20

Results: -1121 units (-14.6%pot, 7661 units outlayed)

 

Long game strategy (7.6 units overall)

Randwick (4 units)

Race 3 no.7 Taniko 0.75 unit at $4.20

Race 4 no.1 Luvaluva 1 unit win at $2.40

Race 4 no.2 Alward 0.5 unit place (only two place divs) at $4.80

Race 7 no.1 Asharani 1 unit win at $6

Race 8 no.1 Strome 0.25 unit win tote

Race 9 no.13 Seeingisbelieving 0.5 unit place tote

 

Gold Coast (1.6 units)

Race 5 no.10 Yamazaki 0.75 unit win at $7

Race 7 no.2 Farnan 0.5 unit win at $6

Race 7 no.7 Nitrous 0.1 unit win at $26

Race 8 no.8 Smartedge 0.25 unit win at $13 and 0.5 unit place at $4.20

 

Kembla Grange (2 units)

Race 1 no.4 Toomai 0.75 unit win at $4

Race 2 no.5 Designated 0.75 unit win at $3.30

Race 2 no.2 Classic Gaming 0.5 unit win at $4.20

Results: -17.3 units (-20.7%POT, 82.95 units outlayed)

Randwick Track assessment: Only one rail at 11m at Randwick in recent history (back in October 2018) and it favoured horses off fence. Generally when rail is out 7m plus at Randwick it is very fair.

Wind: Fresh southerly predicted which could help leaders in sprint races of 1200m and below (tailwind of sorts start of race).

Race 1

Overview: Overview: Splintex has been knocking on the door and the drop back to 1000m shouldn’t concern him. He is short enough in the market all the same. Witherspoon will roll forward and prove hard to run down over the 1000m again, while Aquitaine has taken all before her this prep but naturally this looks harder.

Advice: Leaning to Splintex but too short.

Selections: 3-2-5-4

3.Splintex ($2.70): Knocking on the door in harder races of late (stakes placed LS). 1200m back to 1000m but has won at this trip and should make his own luck near speed. Just seems short enough?

2.Witherspoon ($4.50): burnt the candle at both ends to score well over 1000m fresh in solid figures- Second horse has won since. Can she reproduce?

5. Aquitaine ($4.90): Flying this prep but toughest task and map looks tricky.

4. Omar ($7.4): Trialled up well but needs to lift on prev preps.

Other runners:

1. Yulong Yuheng ($20.1), 7. Yulong Monoceros ($60.2).

 

Race 2

Overview: Very competitive Highway this week. Zardoro is always capable in these types of races and the step up to 1200m should suit him. He always needs things to go right as he gets back in his races. I concede Alternative Facts is likeable but $2.80 seems rock bottom in a race with plenty of depth. He was solid from the back last start and should close off again. Assault’n’bathory (may want further), Lady Demi, Dulette, The Launcher, Toulon Brook, Magnarock, Rioli and Healing Hands (if he gets a run) are all capable of winning this on their day.

Advice: Tough race. Market moves late will help with a few returning. Zardoro for now.

Selections: 3-12-4-5

3. Zardoro ($8.40): get back type that always needs luck- extra trip will suit- runs on late as like LS. Wants speed on

12.Alternative Facts ($4.60):won well two back and found the Line well latest. Runs on again here but short enough?

4.Lady Demi ($9.80): resining, always competitive in Hways! Has a nice finish on her day

5.Dulette ($12): had a good prep last time in- bigger fish to fry later but nice kick off point.

Other runners:

1. Show Me The Honey ($30.3), 2. Assault'n'bathory ($14.9), 6. The Launcher ($14.9), 7. Toulon Brook ($12), 8. Electrified ($40.4), 9. Magnarock ($13.3), 10. Rioli ($14.9), 11. Siege Warfare ($121.2), 13. Tale Of The Kraut ($19.9).

 

Race 3

Overview: Overview: Strange market this one and it’s changed a few times already. Taniko went up $8 and I’m not sure how that was the case. Even the $4.80 now looks OK and she gave them a huge start the other day and still won. She can be closer in the small field and she will take a lot of holding out. Cradle Mountain was a bit disappointing last prep but he could easily bounce back in a race like this. Southern Lad gets a 1.5kg weight swing on Taniko but he had his chance to beat her last start and I doubt she is 10 lengths off him here. Special Reward seems skinny for mine at $3 but capable all the same.

Advice: Taniko to win.

Selections: 7-2-6-4

7.Taniko (4.10): got a long way back and unleashed an enormous finish to still get up LS. Won’t be so far off them here in the small field and keen on her to repeat the dose.

2.Cradle Mountain ($4.80): disapp last prep but trialled solidly leading in and will be reapond this summer?

6.Southern Lad ($5.30):

Good 2nd to Taniko last start and gets weight swing but she is not 10L off him here.

4. Special Reward ($5.30): trialled solidly and forgive run only Sydney effort- should lead but skinny enough for min

Other runners:

1. Passage Of Time ($8.8), 3. Ever Loyal ($29.3), 5. Albumin ($58.5).

 

Race 4

Overview: Luvaluva goes up in the weights here but hard to see why she can’t win again. She won comfortably last start and despite the weight rise, should take some beating again. I think the $4.60 about Alward to run top two looks OK. He didn’t run out 2400m two back and lost a shoe last start but his form prior was good enough for this. I always prefer Sir Plush at a mile but he has claims, while National Guard was a bit disappointing last start but the run prior was good and he can feature third up at odds.

Advice: Luvaluva to win and Alward to place.   

Selections: 1-2-3-7

1.Luvaluva ($2.20): far too good for a similar field LS and hard to beat again despite the weight rise. Found her niche at 2000

2. Alward ($9.80): lost a shoe LS and didn’t run out 2400m prior. Better horse than he has showed last couple. Like him to run second.

3.Sir PlusH ($7.70): on the QBu- what you see is what you get with him- prefer him at a mile?

7.National Guard ($15.60): caught eye first up and then disapp second up? May have just been flat- can respond

Other runners:

, 4. Taikomochi ($10), 5. Mr Garcia ($12.1), 6. Aqua D'Ivina ($10.9).

 

Race 5

Overview: Competitive race. Napoleon Solo gets the services of Tom Marquand here and his aggressive riding style might be enough to get him over the line late. Nicochet gets back and runs on and should be doing the same here, while Sondelon worked hard early last start in a strong run race but he was still a bit disappointing late for mine. He can bounce back but $3.30 to find out is a bit skinny.  Cuban Royale rarely runs a bad race and is also capable.

Advice: Slight leaning to Napoleon Solo.

Selections: 4-2-7-3

4.  Napoleon Solo ($4.10): Marquand on a bit plus-won two back- ok latest. Runs on here

2. Sondelon ($5.90): worked during run on strong speed LS forgive. Honest on pacer worth another chance

7.Nicochet ($9): likely to give them a start from wide gate but runs on late in piece

3.Cuban Royale ($9):  generally find 1-2 better city grade but just rarely runs a bad race

Other runners:

1. White Boots ($22.7), 5. Esteem Spirit ($30.3), 6. Tunero ($9), 8. Savvy Ken ($9), 9. Man Of Peace ($20.2), 10. Devlann ($90.8).

 

Race 6

Overview:  Cinquedea was a touch disappointing last start but is worth another chance here. He was held up and should find this a touch easier. There wasn’t a great deal between Rocha Clock and Bigboyroy last start and the latter of the two should roll forward here and give them something to catch again. Rocha Clock seemed to jump a touch better last time out and she is Pierro filly that is still learning about the caper. She has good form lines around Mr Dependable for this. Academy found the line really well last start and may roll forward instead up in trip.

Advice: Very tough! Not  much between 1,3,6,8.

Selections: 3-1-8-6

3.Bigboyroy ($5.60):  nothing between him and RC LS. Should roll forward and give a strong kick

1. Cinquedea ($5.60): bit disapp last weekend but QBU here and had no luck when wide with big weight prior. Better than he showed LS

8. Rocha Clock ($3.70): talented horse who has a habit of missing the start. Promising though!

6.Academy ($5.60): loves d the way he found the line fresh- better for that and extra trip suits. Tactics?

Other runners:

 

4. Frenzied ($25), 5. Spectre ($62.4), 7. Showminder ($12.3), 9. Dark Confidant ($62.4), 10. Hammoon Ballad ($124.7), 11. War Baron ($31.2).

 

 

Race 7

Overview: I have been taken by the two runs back of Asharani and the step up to 1500m looks a plus for mine. I know all her wins have been at 1400m and below but she should have won at 1550m last prep. She boasts a fourth to Kolding at her other run in this distance range. I love the way Helga and Pinup Miss both found the line last start and they both might be able to park up a touch closer. Statuesquely bounced back to form with a very tough on pace effort in the Belle Of The Turf last start. She was the best of the on pacers clearly in a race run to suit the swoopers. My concern is whether she wants further now?

Advice: Asharani to win.

Selections: 1-10-5-3

1.Asahrani ($4.50): Too good for Word For Word last start (touch disapp since) and prior to that had no luck at Canterbury. Come back well and 1500m looks perfect now.

10. Pinup Miss ($6.20): Tempo beat her last start in a weaker race than this. Gets back but can only be strong late.

5.Helga ($8.10): Loved the way she found the line fresh and should take natural improvement off that. Should finish off.

3. Statuesquely ($3.70):- Should lead and give a kick and was very brave in race set up for swoopers at Gosford. Is becoming costly though!

Other runners:

2. Bellaria ($#DIV/0!), 4. Pumpkin Pie ($11.9), 6. Elusive Nature ($21.7), 7. Judge Judi ($#DIV/0!), 8. Zavance ($#DIV/0!), 9. Voila ($#DIV/0!), 11. Seles ($17.8), 12. Brazilica ($54.1).

 

Race 8

Overview: I thought Strome was well priced here at $5.50 and I’m willing to forgive the last start effort where she seemed to race flat. Her form prior was good for a race like this. Toryjoy did too much work at Gosford last start and I want to be forgiving. She will roll to the front and give them something to catch. Charretera is honest and has each-way claims in a winnable race, while I’m happy to take on favourite, Phaistos. He was just fair for mine last start and I think he has been a touch overplayed throughout his career. Echo Jet bolted in last start at 1250m but the 1400m remains a question mark.

Advice: Strome to win.

Selections: 1-2-13-5

1.Strome- Disapp LS buit form prior was super and drop back to 1400m now looks OK. Concern is gate 1 with rail out and not getting a crack at them but should be strong late if she does.

2. Toryjoy- Forgive at Gosford where worked too hard in the run. Good winner prior and can bounce back leading in front.

13.Charretera- Gets in with no weight non his back after the claim and very honest galloper. Never far away and gets another chance here,

5.Phaistos-Has been overplayed in his career to date for mine and happy to be around him here. last run was just OK for mine.

Race 9

Overview: Hard to tip against Mr Dependable but I don’t think there is any value in the current $1.80 price. He rolls to the front here and should be very hard to catch. . Occupy profiles well out to 1800m third up off two wins this prep. Seeingisbelieving's run was much better than it looked last start (had to do a power of work on a strong speed) and he has rough claims if he gets a start as well.

Advice: Seeingisbelieving the place.

Selections: 7-13-4-2

7. Mr Dependable ($1.70): Progressive type who showed he wasn;t just a one trick pony when sitting outside lead and proving too strong again LS. 1800m natural progression.

13. Seeingisbelieving ($12.30): Good place chance here- Did a power of work mid race LS but loved the way he stuck on late. Up to 1800m should be fine.

4. Occupy ($9.80): 2/2 this prep and 1800m natural progression. Runs well again.

2. Matowi ($13.70): Rarely runs a  bad race- Can be a bit soft last 100m of races but should dash well in straight

Other runners:

1. Dabiyr ($34.8), 3. Tinkermosa ($17.2), 5. Shalmaneser ($278.3), 6. Spencer ($27.9), 8. High Power ($#DIV/0!), 9. Tahsin ($55.7).

 



Brad Davidson preview Randwick Jan 11 - Brad Davidson preview Randwick Jan 11


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