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Brad Davidson preview Randwick Kensington Dec 18

BRAD DAVIDSON PREVIEW RANDWICK KENSINGTON DEC 18 Dec 18 2019

Randwick Kensington

***No specials today but a few plays

 

Forgive last start

Race 1 no.3 Faethm $3.90 (rated $3.50, confidence 6/10)

Complete forgive first up when wide and off the track and he pulled up with a poor post race recovery as well. The race has already produced several winners and his form around Rancho Notorious last prep (2 x B70 winner since that day). The favourite has upside but this bloke’s form lines are just as strong.

 

Backing two horses

Race 3 no.1 Killer Instinct $4.20 (rated $3.90) and no.2 Joigny $4.20 (rated $3.90)

Both put in good runs fresh and I just think the favourite, Brazilica is being priced a touch on potential on what she has done to date. She might appreciate the step up in trip but I want to see her do it before taking short odds.

 

Other small plays

Race 2 no.5 Enduring Night (mainly place) and Race 7 no.7 Stock Up worth small plays at odds (mainly place)

Enduring Night found the line well fresh in a solid race and should finish off again, while Stock Up had no luck at all last start and won in solid figures prior. The form around her hasn't been great and she faces a couple of up and comers in Rocha Clock and Reformist but may place at odds.

 

Long game strategy (2.35 units)

Race 1 no.3 Faethm 0.75 unit win at $3.90 (*half fixed and half tote)

Race 2 no.5 Enduring Night 0.1 unit win and 0.2 unit place tote

Race 3 no.1 Killer Instinct 0.5 unit win $4.20

Race 3 no.2 Joigny 0.5 unit win at $4.20

Race 7 no.2 Stock Up 0.1 unit win and 0.2 unit place tote

Results: -8.7 units (-15% POT, 56.6 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Normal strategy (95 units)

Race 1 no.3 Faethm 25 unit win at $3.90 (*half fixed and half tote)

Race 2 no.5 Enduring Night 2 unit win and 8 unit place tote

Race 3 no.1 Killer Instinct 20 unit win $4.20

Race 3 no.2 Joigny 20 unit win at $4.20

Race 7 no.2 Stock Up 2 unit win and 8 unit place tote

10 unit main quaddie (starts r4, 20.83%): 1st leg: 6. 2nd leg: 2,3,7,8. 3rd leg: 2,5,6,9. 4th leg: 2,8,10.

Results: -811 units (-11.9%POT, 6796 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.



Brad Davidson preview Randwick Kensington Dec 18 - Brad Davidson preview Randwick Kensington Dec 18


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