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Brad Davidson preview Randwick Dec 221

BRAD DAVIDSON PREVIEW RANDWICK DEC 221 Dec 21 2019

Randwick Dec 21

Hardest to beat

*But under rated price so not in strategies

Race 7 no.4 Word For Word $2.25 (rated $2.40, confidence 8/10)

luckless first-up and she should get a better run in transit here. She will be a few lengths in front of Handspun on the turn and that will help in her bid to turn the tables on that galloper.

Best play:

Race 8 no.9 Taniko $4.60 (rated $4.30, confidence 7/10)

Taniko put the writing on the wall with a sharp finish first-up over the 1100m at Rosehill and she is a better horse at Randwick. If there is a query it’s 1200m and her form has been patchy at this trip but she has won at this track and distance in the past.

Next best play:

Race 4 no.3 House Of Cartier $4.60 (rated $3.90, confidence 6/10)

House Of Cartier was disappointing last start but she was too bad to be true and I loved her win prior to that where she overcame a slow tempo to score. The form out of that race wasn’t great but she is progressive and can bounce back here.

Expected drifters:

Race 9 no.9 Nindamos $4.40 (hasn't really been running time and just looks short here)

Betting strategy

****I’ve decided to offer the two different strategies going forward. The normal strategy will be the same one I’ve been doing since August, the long game strategy will be the 100 unit betting bank idea. I understand that both strategies will suit different styles of punters, so please pick the one that suits you and gamble responsibly.

 

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less.

 

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

 

Normal strategy (85 units)

Race 2 no.1 Cinquedea 15 unit tote

Race 4 no.3 House Of Cartier 20 unit win at $4.60 (*half fixed and half tote)

Race 6 no.7 Revenire 2 unit win at $41 and 8 unit place at $9

Race 8 no.9 Taniko 20 unit win $4.60 (*half fixed and half tote)

10 unit early quaddie (starts r2, 7.9%): 1st leg: 1,9. 2nd leg: 6,11,7,14,2,12,15. 3rd leg: 3,7,2. 4th leg: 2,4,5.

10 unit main quaddie (starts r6, 13.88%): 1st leg: 2,9,7. 2nd leg: 4. 3rd leg: 9,2,12. 4th leg: 4,5,6,8,10,11,12,14.

Results: to be updated

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy (2.3 units)

Race 2 no.1 Cinquedea 0.5 unit tote

Race 4 no.3 House Of Cartier 0.75 unit win at $4.60 (*half fixed and half tote)

Race 6 no.7 Revenire 0.1 unit win at $41 and 0.2 unit place at $9

Race 8 no.9 Taniko 0.75 unit win $4.60 (*half fixed and half tote)

Results: to be updated.

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Rail position: 3m rail, good track.

History rail position:

6/11/2018         Rwick    3m        g3          Fair track this

26/12/2018       Rwick    3m        S5          2-6 off look best ground- didn't want to be hard fence

16/02/2019       Rwick    3m        G4         I reckon first few lanes (partic hard fence) were off. Wider the better from 3-4 out. Could run on and win from front.

13/04/2019       Rwick    3m        G4 (but soft)              Swooping off fence here, wider the better really

8/06/2019         Rwick    3m        H8         Pretty fair track/. Definitely could run on. fence was OK but maybe sl inferior

5/10/2019         Rwick    3m        S6          Pretty fair, reckon first three lanes first half and then evened out late

Assessment: If anything off fence here and run on but this could be counteracted by the strong winds predicted.

Wind: Very strong winds expected late in the day- Direction changing throughout the day though quite considerably so have to wait and see?

 

Race 1

Overview: Tough race with many form lines to consider. I’ll lean the way of Chilliwack and I thought he did enough first-up behind a nice enough horse. He got a bump at the top of the straight but once he balanced up, he closed off well and the blinkers go on. Hinchbeast should employ some catch me if you can tactics in front, while monitor betting moves with Aeecee Power, who has looked impressive in two trial wins. Aim and Stellar Pauline the other main hopes.

Advice: Leaning to Chilliwack at the odds but confidence low here.

Confidence: 5/10

Speed map: Hinchbeast should lead and roll along at a good tempo here. Jemss and Narvaez roll forward too.

Likely market trend: No firm opinion.

Selections: 3-1-11-2

*No prices*

3.Chilliwack- Did enough first up when bumped and then picked up late to beat all bar impressive Muntaseera. Blinkrs on, gate 1, Nash on. They zipped home in good figures on debut too and trials were good prior.

1.Hinchbeast- Went quick on debut and too good and then bit slower second up where didn’t lead and was beaten. Now up to 1200m, they should roll along again.

11.Aeecee Power-Won two trials on the bit basically and can’t knock her. Market?

2.Aim- Visually very good debut but it was set up for him and he was fence in run too which was a decent advantage on day. Can win but needs a bit to go right.

Other chances:

4.Stellar Pauline- Solid in the Gimcrack and recent trial was good without raving about (Anders looked better in trial) Gimcrack was slower than Breeders and Every Rose beaten since?

 

Race 2

Overview: I thought there were two main hopes here in Edison and Cinquedea. Edison has been crying out for further and I would have preferred 1300m but he has at least had the grounding of two runs back for the jump from 1100m-1400m. Cinquedea found the line strongly fresh and the query is just whether he can give Edison the weight and beat him. Napoleon Solo was a surprise winner last start when the blinkers went on and looks next best, while Twentyfour Carat has claims but looks short in the market for mine.

Advice: Cinquedea from Edison.

Confidence: 7/10

Speed map: Musume should lead with Twentyfour Carat and In Lighten Me handy.

Likely market trend: Expecting Edison and Cinquedea to both be popular.

Selections: 1-9-2-10

1.Cinquedea ($3.40): Nice return over 1200m where found the line strongly behind Trumbull. Race was slower than other 1200m event on day but should appreciate step up to 1400m here and big track. Needs a touch of luck early.

9.Edison ($5.50): 1100m to 1400m doesn’t read well on paper but he has had the two runs back and he did bolt in 1300m last prep when winning mdn. Tempo against LS but last 600m was strong. Gets in light again.

2.Napoleon Solo ($8.40): Last start city winner in weaker race where blinkers went on and he was too good. Harder here but going well enough to be competitive.

10.Twentyfour Carat ($8.40): Well held by Bandersnatch LS in race that rated similar to maiden on day. Had excuses prior. Just think he has been a touch overrated but has place claims here all the same.Advice:

Other runners:

4. Above And Beyond ($30.3), 5. In Lighten Me ($9.8), 6. In Good Health ($34.7), 7. Musume ($60.7), 8. Seles ($12).

 

Race 3

Overview: Pretty deep Highway. Eiger stuck to his task behind Powertrain last start and should be cherry ripe for this, while I was taken by Badoosh’s win first-up win and he can make the step up here. Congreate found the line well last start and he comes through the quicker of two Highway races on the same day. Peloso Lass isn’t hopeless at odds and she had had no luck late last start and can settle closer from the gate.

Advice: Open now with the scratching of Pauper.

Confidence: 5/10

Speed map: Stylish Pattern looks the leader. Speed looks moderate on paper but they generally roll in these Highway races.

Likely market trend: Street corner tip around for Eiger and he may firm as a result.

Selections: 6-11-7-14

6.Eiger ($5.60): Nice return effort last time out when runner up behind Powertrain. Better for that and form last prep was strong.

11.Badoosh ($4.90): Looked good at the trials and then too good fresh for a first starter who looks to show promose. Broke 11s last 200m but it was a day where track played quick. Easily quicker than other mdn on day though. Normally like to take on M Dunn runners in Highways as a lot come up too short but respecting this one.

7.Congregate ($7.60): No match for Princess Cordelia but found the line well LS. Race was run quicker than other Hway on day that Pauper comes through.

14. Hiroko ($11): Found the line well last start behind a nice one. Form last prep reads well for this.

Other chances:

2. Stylish Pattern ($15): Rolls along at own speed in front and liked the trial. Could be hard to catch.

12.Peloso Lass ($17.80): Had to go right back and then had no luck late LS when coming into the race in Hway grade. Not hopeless here for a place from the better gate.

15. Absolute Trust ($11): Won his maiden in good figures last prep. Saved from race at Wyong in week for this.

Other runners:

1. Greenspan ($17.8), 2. Stylish Pattern ($18), 9. Red Liberty ($34), 10. Denmiss ($31), 13. Oh So Hot ($108.6), 17. Legend Of Oz ($36.2).

 

Race 4

Overview: House Of Cartier was disappointing last start but she was too bad to be true and I loved her win prior to that where she overcame a slow tempo to score. The form out of that race wasn’t great but she is progressive and can bounce back here. I liked the recent trials of Vadiyann and the stable should have him ready for this first-up off a long break at 2000m. Guise and Fun Fact fought out the finish the other day but this has more depth for mine.

Advice: House Of Cartier to win.

Confidence: 6/10

Speed map: Speed should be genuine here with Fun Fact rolling along and Vadiyann pressing on. Guise won’t be far away.

Likely market trend: Hard to tell what the market will do with Vadiyann. Support will be there for several runners.

Selections: 3-7-2-6

3.House Of Cartier ($3.90): Disappointing last start but I loved the way she was tracking prior to that and she is backable here at $4. Won well two back off a slow tempo and while the form out of the race hasn’t stacked up, she sets up well here with speed up front.

7.Vadiyann ($5.90): First-up in more than a year at 2000m is a query but the Waterhouse/Bott  yard get them fit and can overcome that. Trials have been good. Form around him overseas just ok? Market?

2.Fun Fact ($3.90): Just missed last start when allowed to roll in front. Query now is he should have company with Vadiyann. Gives a kick regardless and should be fitter again.

6.Guise ($6.90): Got past Fun Fact late last start and sets up for her to get a nice run just off speed again. Each-way chance.

Other runners:

4. Ready For Danger ($28.50), 5. Master Shuhood ($28.50), 9. Dark Pearl ($10.5).

 

Race 5

Overview: Very tricky race. Passage Of Time was outstanding fresh and then he couldn’t have been more plain second up. He was too bad to be true there but must have come through the run well to be back here seven days later. The 1400m is as far as he wants. New Universe could be the value and he can often pull out a run fresh. He is a hard horse to catch but has a strong finish on his day. Smartedge has claims but seems skinny enough in the market, while Asterius will bid to bounce back after a poor effort in The Gong.

Advice: Tricky race. Passage Of Time or New Universe.

Confidence: 5/10

Speed map: Speed looks moderate with Special Missile and Passage Of Time the two on pace runners.

Likely market trend: No firm opinion.

Selections: 2-4-5-6

2.Passage Of Time ($5): Super effort from the back first-up and then very disappointing last weekend. On the quick back up, forgiving him one bad run. 1400m on outer limits?

4.New Universe ($7.80): Soft trial coming in- Fresh record is sound. Has a big turn of foot on his day. Residual fitness from last prep. Settled well in trial, blinkers go on like normal on race day.

5.Smartedge ($5): Ran on well fresh and should be doing the same. Just seems skinny enough at $3.70 in a tricky little race. Stays at 1400m. Enjoy Randwick.

6.Asterius ($5.80): Disappointing last start but back in trip here and form prior was good for a race like this. How does he freshen for drop back in trip? Beaten by Passage Of Time last prep at 1300m but sit and sprint. This could eventuate same thing.

Other chances:

8.The Party Girl ($5.80): Set up for LS but rise to 1400m should suit and should close off.

Other runners:

1. Redouble ($20.4), 3. Special Missile ($17.8), 7. Roman Son ($71.2), 8. The Party Girl ($5.8).

 

 

Race 6

Overview: They will go quick here and it could set it up for Broken Arrows to have last say. I reckon he can find his way into the three wide line approaching the turn and let loose late. He should have won last start but this has more depth all the same. Zaniah got the job done fresh but she has more company on speed here and drops 1100m back to 1000m. Revenire can run well at odds and he enjoys the Randwick 1000m and will relish the likely quick tempo.Spiritual Pursuit is super consistent but draws awkwardly and does prefer wet ground for mine.

Advice: Broken Arrows to win. Can speck Revenire at odds.

Confidence: 6/10

Speed map: Speed looks strong here with Rare Episode, Zaniah, Spiritual Pursuit, Yitai Synergy and Clear The Beach all up there.

Likely market trend: Expecting support to be there for Broken Arrows.

Selections: 2-9-7-5

2.Broken Arrows ($4.80): Should have won LS, wasn’t the deepest race and this race is stronger but speed is on here, can park back in three wide line and finish off strongly. Going great guns this prep.

9.Zaniah ($3.70): Talented mare- 1100 back to 1000 but probably a better 1000m horse? Drops 4kg. Just has company on speed here and the last 100m is the query.

7.Revenire ($28.10): Not the worst roughie here at $41. Loves the 1000m, enjoys Randwick and did enough in a recent trial. Can reel off a good last 600m. Change of stables to Garry Neale from Godolphin. Speed on helps.

5.Spiritual Pursuit ($8): Talented mare but I prefer her on a wet track and draws awkwardly here with speed inside. Tactics? If they go for the lead, she could be vulnerable late. If she takes the sit, can be thereabouts.

Other runners:

1. Rare Episode ($17.3), 4. Clear The Beach ($19.8), 6. And So It Goes ($28.1), 8. Gododdin ($11.4), 10. Epic Dan ($35.1), 11. Yitai Synergy ($70.2), 12. Sophiella ($12.4).

 

 

Race 7

Overview: Word For Word was luckless first-up and she should get a better run in transit here. She will be a few lengths in front of Handspun on the turn and that will help in her bid to turn the tables on that galloper. Handspun might have to give them a big start from the wide gate but she is flying this prep. She has clearly improved this time in. Call Me Royal should lead and give a kick but has the big weight to lump, while Asharani will close off late.

Advice: Word For Word on top but short enough at $2.25 now all the same.

Confidence: 8/10

Speed map: Word For Word could take this up with To Your Health and Missybeel prominent. Speed looks moderate.

Likely market trend: Word For Word will be popular.

Selections: 4-3-6-5

4.Word For Word ($2.40): $3.50-$2.50 and no longer value at that price but was held up first-up before savaging the line late. Only query is whether she wants further now but sets up well here with Nash on.

3.Handspun ($4.30): Come back a much better horse this prep- Reeled off some super splits both runs back and overcame a slow tempo to score last start. Meets WFW 1.5kg worse off but it’s more the map that is the query and I think she will give them a big start from the gate.

6.Asharani ($9.90): No luck at Canterbury first-up although she was slow out. Should appreciate 1400m and will be running on. Just not sure she can match Handspun from the back and give Word For Word a start?

5. Pumpkin Pie ($10.30): Next best. Not far off Handspun LS and building nicely this prep.

Other runners:

7. Levee Bank ($30.1), 8. Missybeel ($34.8), 9. Alison Of Tuffy ($52.2), 12. Ondo Pasa ($52.2), 13. To Your Health ($14.7).

 

Race 8

Overview: Taniko put the writing on the wall with a sharp finish first-up over the 1100m at Rosehill and she is a better horse at Randwick. If there is a query it’s 1200m and her form has been patchy at this trip but she has won at this track and distance in the past. Usain Bowler is hard to line up. He covered ground and bolted in last start in Melbourne and the second horse out of that race has won since. He drops back to 1200m here. Chauffeur improved sharply with the blinkers on last start but hasn’t won for a while, while Romani Girl has been freshened and can sprint well here. Drachenfels has place claims.

Advice: Taniko to win.

Confidence: 7/10

Speed map: Yulong Yuheng and Junglized look the two most prominent with Love Shack Baby up there. Speed looks genuine enough.

Likely market trend: Usain Bowler has been popular during the week.

Selections: 9-2-1-12

9.Taniko ($4.30): Has always possessed a really good turn of foot and I loved the way she closed off fresh at Rosehill. 1200m is the only query I can find- she has won at 1200m here but some of her 1200m runs have been a bit plain. Loves Randwick though and should be strong late. Quickest last 600m and 400m of day first up.

2.Usain Bowler ($5): Hard to line up- Form was just OK then bolted in latest at 1400m? Back to 1200m? 2ND horse has won out of last race which franks form too.

12.Romani Girl ($10.70): Freshened- 1200M could be sharp enough but she often races well fresh. Liked her 13.tickover trial and she can run a cheeky race here.

1.Chauffeur ($9.90): Has been a bit of an enigma- Blinkers went on LS and he was much better. Comes through a good rating race and stronger race but has to lump the big weight as a result.

Other place chances:

5. Southern Lad ($9.2): WNC last start forgive. Always capable here. 13.Drachenfels ($16.30): Closed off OK last start and Ranwick 1200m suits. Doubt he wins but place chance.

Other runners:

1. Chauffeur ($9.9), 3. Love Shack Baby ($11.7), 4. Enigman ($44.1), 7. Qiji Express ($26.5), 8. Royal Tudor ($53), 10. Yulong Yuheng ($26.5).

Race 9

Overview: Extremely tough race with many chances. I’m not going to go through them all other than to say Spencer, Almerheri, Orcein, Baanone, Tahsin, Arraignment, Shadow Flight, Pinup Miss and Nindamos are all capable of winning. The most open race I’ve come across in Sydney for some time.

Advice: Tough as mentioned above, leaning to Spencer but that could chance. Go wide in the quaddie here.

Confidence: 1/10

Speed map: Arraignment and Tahsin look the most prominent. Speed looks even.

Likely market trend: Who knows which way the punters will go here.

Selections: 5-4-10-14

5.Spencer ($7.30): Beat Orcein two back and then was fair last start when up in grade. Draws well, Nash back on, up in trip.

4.Orcein ($8.50): Tempo against last start, won prior and run prior unlucky when had to circle a long way out. Racing well.

10.Almerheri ($8.50): Brings a different form line- Tempo against fresh but I liked last 100m. Up in trip to mile suits. Does she want one more? Has residual fitness from last prep though.

14.Pinup Mis ($9.20): Tempo against last start, extra trip should suit. Runss on.

Other chances:

11.Arraignment ($11.40): Liked him last start but was a bit disappointing. Reckon that track was soft though and he loves it dry. Drops in weight, different form line and horse who won the race he was in LS, looks promising.

8.Baanone ($9.20): Disappointing recently and then turned around with slashing effort Canterbury latest where should have won. Maybe he is a miler?

6.Tahsin ($12.90):- Didn’t back up last start but form prior was sound.

12.Shadow Flight ($14.70): Just missed last start where race set up for. Can be closing off again but needs favours.



Brad Davidson preview Randwick Dec 221 - Brad Davidson preview Randwick Dec 221


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