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Brad Davidson preview Rosehill Mar 14

BRAD DAVIDSON PREVIEW ROSEHILL MAR 14 Mar 13 2020

Rosehill

Best bet

Race 8 no.10 Master Of Wine $2.30 (rated $2.20, confidence 7/10)

1400m to 2000m the niggle but he gets a great run on speed here providing they don’t just go back from the wide draw. Dominant fresh and looks a really progressive stayer. Rain would be a slight query though and that’s what is holding me back declaring him a good thing (we may get rain during day).

Hard to beat but no value at current price

Race 5 no.6 Funstar $1.80 (rated $1.90, confidence 8/10)

Short enough and couldn’t back at current price at least without seeing the change of tactics to go forward that should come through this morning. Beaten by Probabeel fresh but was first-up and that horse had race fitness on his side. Slow run race here and can turn the tables.

Value

Race 1 no.1 White Boots $9.50

Happy to have a speck at the odds here and this sets up OK for him. No star but should be closing off late and I liked his last run for this.

Gosford

Best

Race 5 no.6 War Memorial $2.50

Comes back as a gelding and it was hard not to be taken by his recent trial win at Wyong in a solid last 600m. Should be hard to beat first up providing the track isn’t too wet.

Value

Race 7 no.4 Sebring Express $8.50

Gives them a start which is the concern around Gosford but hard not to be taken by the trial leading in. Goes well fresh and should be closing strongly.

One at big odds to include

Race 8 no.3 General Soho $34 and $8

Worth a nibble at the odds- Found 1400m too far last start but had no luck in the three runs prior. Chance at bigs odds here doing no work from the gate.

Rosehill preview

Track history:

16/03/2019       Rosehill True      H10       Getting a few off fence here and wider good too.                                    

18/05/2019       Rosehill True      G4         Pretty fair track, fence OK but I still reckon wider the better and fence sl inferior. Lanes 3-6 OK but wider fine too                                        

29/06/2019       Rosehill True      H9         bit on pace to start with but swooped last few races and evened up midway. Fence a no go here Wanted to get middle and wider.                                    

10/08/2019       Rosehill True      G4         Pretty fair although I reckon hard fence was inferior up to two lanes out                                      

28/09/2019       Rosehill True      G4         Fence in run slight adv, lanes ok in str- mixed bag                                  

2/11/2019         Rosehill True      G4         Fair track                                        

30/11/2019       Rosehill True      G4         Pretty fair although no disadv to be a little wider on track straight                           

18/01/2020       Rosehill True      H8         Inside few lanes slight advantage for day but could still get out off fence ok. Didn't want to be worst than midfield                                        

Assessment: Pretty fair. Maybe a touch towards fence early then evening out.

Wind: Gentle SW.

 

Normal strategy

Rosehill

Race 1 no.1 White Boots 10 unit win at $9.50

Race 8 no.10 Master Of Wine 40 unit at $2.30

15 unit Rosehill quaddie (17.86%, starts r6) : 1st leg: 2,5,4,10. 2nd leg: : 5-3-7-4-15-9-14. 3rd leg: 10. 4th leg: 6-8-12.

Gosford

Race 5 no.6 War Memorial 30 unit at $2.30

Race 7 no.4 Sebring Express 12 unit win at $8.50 and 18 unit place at $2.70

Race 8 no.3 General Soho 3 unit win at tote and 7 unit place at tote

10 unit Gosford quaddie (starts r5, 16.66%): 1st leg: 6. 2nd leg: 8,1,6. 3rd leg: 4,10,2,6. 4th leg: 1,11,3,6,16.

Results: -1825.2 (-17.4%, 10501 units outlayed)

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Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy

Rosehill

Race 1 no.1 White Boots 0.25 unit win at $9.50

Race 8 no.10 Master Of Wine 1.25 unit at $2.30

Gosford

Race 5 no.6 War Memorial 1 unit at $2.30

Race 7 no.4 Sebring Express 0.4 unit win at $8.50 and 0.6 unit place at $2.70

Race 8 no.3 General Soho 0.1 unit win at tote and 0.2 unit place tote

Results: -36 units (-21%, 170.65 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Race 1: Iron Jack Handicap (1900m)

Overview: I think White Boots is a good a chance as any of these and the great thing about him is he rarely runs a bad race. He needs a bit of luck early but should go back and run on. I like the booking of Tim Clark for Dylan’s Romance. If he can find the front and find a nice rhythm, he will be hard to run down. Welsh Legend chased home subsequent Canberra Cup winner Mugatoo last start and that’s good form for this. She gets in light here. Yonkers has upside but I thought he was short enough in early betting all the same.

Advice: White Boots and Dylan’s Romance but should run well at odds

Speed map: Dylan’s Romance most likely to lead with Monsieur Sisu and Donndubhan there as well. Speed looks solid.

Likely market trend: Could go many ways!

Selections: 1-3-14-4

1.White Boots ($8.20): Produced prep best last start but I like the way he found the line all the same. Bit of a one paced horse the concern but sets up OK here and should be strong late.

3.Dylan’s Romance ($13)- All depends on early splits but is a horse who can run a cheeky race if he finds the front easily enough. Love the booking of Tim Clark- the best front running rider in the business.

14.Welsh Legend ($9.20): Gets in light and has the right form around subsequent Canberra Cup winner Mugatoo. Just needs luck from the wide draw.

4.Humbolt Current ($13): First-up off a break at 1900m the query but seems a big price all the same here at $18. Has the form lines last prep to be really competitive here.

Other runners:

2. Bobby Dee ($19.7), 5. Cyber Intervention ($9.2), 6. Donndubhan ($13), 7. Yonkers ($8.6), 8. Pumpkin Pie ($40), 9. Monsieur Sisu ($17.5), 10. Zoffany's Lad ($19.7), 11. Domed ($40), 12. Monegal ($22.5), 13. Imavido ($159.8), 15. Newtown Bluebag ($19.7).

 

Race 2: Pago Pago Stakes (1200m)

Overview: Open race. Ilovemyself has to be respected off the debut win in Melbourne. He was held up and charged to the line when finally clear the last 150m but he was entitled to run on and the overall time was just fair. Aim had no luck last start and the only query is whether he is looking for further now? Kumasi ran good time to score on debut but second placegetter Deniki didn’t exactly frank the form on Wednesday. There’s no reason he won’t measure up here though. Prague was disappointing last start but did SP short, while Osamu also has each-way claims.

Advice: Leaning to Kumasi on speed without confidence.

Speed map: Kumasi looks the most likely leader with Postcode coming across- Speed looks even enough.

Likely market trend: Expect Ilovemyself to drift from $2.90.

Selections: 7-1-3-4.

7.Kumasi ($5)- New kid on the block- Drawn to roll forward and potentially lead these. Ran good time when winning on debut (much quicker than the other 1000m race on the same day although conditions deteriorated throughout the day). Second horse that day, Deniki hasn’t franked the form since the query.

1.Aim ($4.60):- Didn’t have a lot of luck last start and should have finished closer in the Skyline. Gets back again but should be strong late. Query is whether he wants further now.

3.Ilovemyself ($4.60)- Was originally with him but I just think he is well found at $2.90. Won well on debut after being held up until late in the piece but the overall figures out of the race were average. Can win and has upside!

4. Osamu ($14)- Closed off strongly LS and should be doing the same here. Can feature at odds.

Other runners:

2. Prague ($11), 5. Postcode ($22), 8. I Am Swerving ($18.2), 9. Argentus ($12),

Race 3: Magic Night Stakes (1200m)

Overview: Even race. Stellar Pauline should get a good run behind the speed but I’m not sure I want to be diving in at $3.10 all the same. She led last start and I think that backfired so expect her to take a sit here. Kaakit Akit won well on debut but she did get a soft lead and I think she will have a lot of company up on speed in this race. Dubai Star won well fresh and the stable said she wasn’t wound up for that race. Sancy trialled well but will need luck from the draw, while Dottie Dee was good in Adelaide on debut and should be thereabouts as well.

Advice: Stellar Pauline the horse to beat but she is short enough at $3.10.

Speed map: There’s about six horses that all look on pace here which should ensure a strong tempo.

Likely market trend: Expect Stellar Pauline to be the one punters like.

Selections: 1-4-5-8

1.Stellar Pauline ($3.40): Led last start and tactics backfired a touch. Plenty of speed here and should find a nice spot behind the speed. Gets her chance in what looks a pretty weak race.

4.Sancy ($11.10):- Didn’t beat much at Rosehill before a break but put away and missed the Magic Millions to be saved from Slipper. Trialled well including jumping really well- Gate is the query but she may get in.

5.Dubai Star ($11.10): Good win first-up at Canterbury where stable said she wasn’t woiund up. Can only improve. One of several on pace runners the query.

8.Kaakit Akit ($5.60): Won well on debut in maiden grade and must respect the upside she has. Query is she will have plenty of company up front.

Other chances:

Dottie Dee ($14.20): Solid effort on debut in a stakes race in Adelaide- Draws soft here and should appreciate the strong speed.

Other runners:

2. Philizzy ($13), 3. Time Is Precious ($15.8), 6. Thermosphere ($40.1), 7. Dismissal ($53.5), 10. Jemss ($80.2), 11. Hembrow ($80.2), 12. Hybrid Theory ($160.4), 13. Fall On A Star ($40.1), 14. Embeller ($80.2), 15. Only Mine ($26.4).

 

Race 4: Maurice McCarten Stakes (1100m)

Overview:Tricky race with many of these resuming. Soothing can be a bit hard to catch but she has a sharp turn of foot on her day and will be closing hard. Star Of The Seas gets the blinkers on but there is still a query as to whether 1100m is a touch sharp for him albeit that he is first up? Tactical Advantage will be storming home late, while Greyworm won impressively first-up but stays at 1100m and I doubt he leads this time. Zoustyle should lead and prove hard to run down but $3.50 seems short enough all the same. I don’t think Miss Xfactor is hopeless at $26 either. She ran a great race fresh and may have improved this time in.

Advice: Soothing perhaps?  Tough race.

Speed map: Zoustyle should lead but Goldfinch is right there with him. Greyworm can also press forward. Speed looks solid.

Likely market trend: No firm view.

Selections: 4-2-3-1

4.Soothing ($5.60)- Nice soft trial leading in- Speed looks solid and she can mix her form a touch but she has a strong turn of foot on her day. Runs on.

2.Greyworm ($4.60)- Dominant winner fresh courtesy of a great ride from Jean Van Overmeire- Was able to lead and dictate there but I don’t think he can do that here. Also query staying at 1100m? Can win though!

3.Star Of The Seas ($5.60)- Blinkers on- Nice soft trial leading in- Is 1100m too sharp? Has all the right form lines though.

1.Tactical Advantage ($8)- Should be closing off strongly late. Likely to drift back but went to a new level last prep and trial at Wyong was solid.

Other chance:

5.Zoustyle ($5.60)- Should lead and roll along- Capable for sure but just seems too short at $3.50?

Other runners:

6. Spending To Win ($40.2), 7. Diplomatico ($26.8), 8. River Bird ($80.4), 9. Goldfinch ($160.9),

Race 5: Phar Lap Stakes (1500m)

Overview: Exciting rematch between two exciting fillies in Funstar and Probabeel. Probabeel got the better of Funstar fresh but she had race fitness on her side and Funstar went right back from the wide draw. I expect Funstar to go forward from the wide draw this time and be hard to get past late. Probabeel will be savaging the line again and there shouldn’t be much between these exciting fillies again. Spend looks next best if Subpoenaed goes to Kembla Grange on Friday as I expect.

Advice: Funstar to turn the tables on Probabeel.

Speed map: Spend looks the leader with Funstar coming across (expecting a Change Of Tactics today but keep an eye on either way). Speed looks moderate.

Likely market trend: Funstar to start a short priced fav from Probabeel.

Selections: 6-5-2-1

6.Funstar ($1.90)- Brilliant fresh run, made long run, just peaked late but lost no admirers. Fitter and I expect her to roll forward this time on her home track.

5.Probabeel ($2.50)- Class filly.  Got the better of Funstar last start but had race fitness on her side. Was held up though. Should be savaging the line again. Clear danger to the fav.

2.Spend ($23.90)- Should get a soft lead- Won well in Melbourne LS but beat horses coming off B70 and B64 wins. Figures were OK but this is a different level.

1.Kubrick ($48.50)- Disapp first-u[ but didn’t appreciate the wet track. Should be a bit firmer here and is a classy conveyance on his day. Golden Rose form/ Bondi Stakes form reads well.

Other runners:

3. Quick Thinker ($97), 4. Trust The Process ($387.8).

Race 6: Ajax Stakes (1500m)

Overview: Tough race as the market suggests. Most of these come through the same race where Quackerjack saluted narrowly from Vegadaze over 1300m. That was an absolute sit and sprint though but will that eventuate again? It all depends on whether Desert Lord wants to add pressure and try to lead or whether he is happy to take a sit. Imaging was well supported in that 1300m event and he pulled up lame after copping a nasty bump in the straight. He might be the value here. Quackerjack meets most of these worse off at the weights but will appreciate 1500m and gets a good run on speed. Cascadian copped a bump last start and that was a forgive run. His effort prior was super. The 1500m suits. Rock, I Am Superman and Scarlet Dream are all capable.

Advice: Imaging could be the value here.

Speed map: Vegadaze and Quackerjack are both on speed but does Desert Lord take them or take a sit? Race shape is dependent of that.

Likely market trend: Could go one of several ways here.

Selections: 2-5-4-10

2.Quackerjack ($5) Tough on pacer. Got all the favours on pace LS in  a sit and sprint but may work out similar way. Up in weight but extra trip suits.Imaging- Imaging was well supported fresh and he pulled up lame after copping a nasty bump in the straight. Complete forgive. He might be the value here.

5. Imaging ($6.20)- Well supported at Aussie debut when pulled up lame after copping heavy bump. Complete forgive. Does he roll forward wide draw?

4.Cascadian ($6.20)- Becoming costly to follow but seemed to be able to show a bit more speed early in race last start (that was from an inside draw though). Copped heavy bump forgive LS. First up run strong. 1500m suits.

10.I Am Superman ($11)- Liked his fresh run- Just got a bit tired late. Extra trip helps.

Other chances:

8.Rock ($11)- Solid return in sit and sprint- Fitter and 1500m looks OK. More a place chance perhaps?

Other runners:

1. Olmedo ($34.2), 3. Yulong Prince ($18), 6. Night’s Watch ($68.50), 7. Norway ($45.6), 8. Rock ($8.3), 9. Vegadaze ($11.1), 11. Ringerdingding ($34.2), 13. Desert Lord ($68.5), 14. Nobu ($273.8), 15. Salsonic ($136.9).

 

Race 7: Coolmore Classic (1500m)

Overview: Great race for the mares as usual. Pohutukawa is ticking over well and she should be able to park up a touch closer from the good draw. She had to go right back last start. Dawn Dawn appears some value even though the race was set up for her last start. Noire had no luck last start and is a chance at odds, while Invincible Gem, El Dorado Dreaming, Delectation Girl, Spanish Whisper Sweet Scandal, Benitoite and Acting are all capable.

Advice: Pohutukawa on top but Dawn Dawn looms as the value.

Speed map: Speed up in the air now that Sweet Deal is out. Con Te Partiro and Acting (COT already) likely to take cover for mine. Sweet Scandal presses on. Speed looks average.

Likely market trend: Open mares race- Hard to say with confidence.

Selections: 5-3-7-4

5- Pohutukawa ($4.80)- Sets up well for her- Rain would help- Running on nicely this prep and gets her chance to win a G1.

3- Dawn Dawn ($10.1)- Forgotten horse- Sure it was set up for her last start but got the job done all the same. Yet to run a bad race this prep.

7.Sylvia’s Mother ($4.90)- Seems a bit short in the market for mine but respecting Melbourne form lines all the same. Has a great winning strike rate.

4. El Dorado Dreaming ($24.9)- Forgive first-up in sit and sprint and did run second in this race. Draws low and should be strong late.

Other chances:

14. Sweet Scandal ($14.3)- Could well lead npw and with that in mind has to be in my quaddie- Speed looks only fair on paper.

15. Benitoite ($17.4)- Draws gate one, 51kg, blinkers on- Been running on well of late and should be strong late.

9. Noire ($17.4)- Might get back too far but had no luck last start and should have finished closer. Runs on late.

Other runners:

1. Invincible Gem ($29.1), 6. Conte Partiro ($29.1), 8. Delectation Girl ($19.4), 10. Oceanex ($59), 11. Spanish Whisper ($21.8), 12. Miss Fabulass ($35.4), 13. Fiesta ($88.4), 16. Acting ($24.9),

Race 8: Sky High Stakes (2000m)

Overview: I’ll stick with Master Of Wine after his dynamic first-up win. The step up from 1400m to 2000m with three weeks between runs is not ideal but he looks a talent. Mustajeer was outstanding first-up in the Parramatta Cup and he looks to have come back well this prep. Danceteria gets the chance to show what he has to offer at 2000m (Enable form lines at this distance!) and forget he went around fresh in a sit and sprint race. Watch for him late in the piece.

Advice: Master Of Wine the horse to beat but Danceteria might get out to a silly price.

Speed map: Angel Of Truth looks the leader with Master Of Wine coming across early and finding a nice spot on speed. Speed looks moderate.

Likely market trend: Expect Master Of Wine to start shorter than $2.40.

Selections: 10-9-1-13

10- Master Of Wine ($2.20)- 1400m to 2000m the niggle but he is a 2000m+ horse, should map forward and has the X factor- Extremely impressive fresh and hard to beat again.

9- Mustajeer ($4.60)- Good first-up win where got back, put them away and then peaked late. Should be fitter. Only goes up 100m?

1-Danceteria ($9.50)- Run was better than it looked fresh in a sit and sprint race. Up to 2000m now- may need one more but has world class form around Enable at this trip.

13-Luvaluva ($13.50)- Disappointing in NZ but form prior was good and recent trial was solid. Respecting. Well weighted under conditions.

Other runners:

2. Come Play With Me ($68.5), 4. Angel Of Truth ($274), 6. Life Less Ordinary ($16.9), 8. Norway ($45.711. Carif ($68.5), 12. Djukon ($34.3), 13. Luvaluva ($13.5), 14. Attention Run ($137).

 

Race 9: Benchmark 88 Handicap (1400m)

Overview: He has bigger fish to fry this autumn but I see no reason why Something Fast won’t be really competitive first-up. He should map to sit behind this solid speed and fitness levels are the only query. We haven’t seen him since a trial back in early February. Royal Celebration should appreciate 1400m and he has been looking for this trip. The query is he has been overracing this prep but cover from the low draw should help him relax to some degree. Positive Peace is flying for the Bjorn Baker yard and I guess the query now is whether she wants a touch further. She can win again though. Roheryn also has each-way claims, while Designated isn’t hopeless with no weight on his back.

Advice: This race revolved around the fitness of Something Fast. Monitor moves after the yard.

Speed: Positive Peace likely to cross and lead with Love Shack Baby, Commander and Shock Alert all thereabouts.

Likely market trend: All depends on the weather by this time of day. How wet is it?

Selections: 6-8-12-1

6. Positive Peace ($4.60)- Flying for the Bjorn Baker yard- Rolld forward again and no reason she can’t win again. I guess the query is whether she wants a touch further now?

8. Royal Celebration ($5.20)- Overracing the query but prefer him at 1400m from a low draw where hopefully he doesn’t overdo it early.

12. Designated ($15)- Always had time for him and gets in super light here off good run in Prov Champs Qualfieier. Can run well!

1- Roheryn ($6.90)- Had a really good prep- Consistent run on type- Even though he is a wet track winner, I prefer him on dry ground and I don’t think he wants rain.

Other runners:

2. Something Fast ($6.1): Definitely capable but has had setback before this? Yard? Weather?

Oher runners:

3. Love Shack Baby ($53.1), 4. Milk Man ($53.1), 5. House Of Cartier ($53.1), 7. Accession ($35.4), 9. Commander ($53.1), 10. Shock Alert ($26.5), 11. Thy Kingdom Come ($15),.

 



Brad Davidson preview Rosehill Mar 14 - Brad Davidson preview Rosehill Mar 14


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