Advertisement
TAB.com.au | Sky Racing | Sky Sports Radio

Back to Expert Comment

Brad Davidson preview Randwick Apr 4

BRAD DAVIDSON PREVIEW RANDWICK APR 4 Mar 18 2020

Randwick

Best play

Race 6 no.1 Mamaragan $3.70 (*locked in Thurs)

Pretty keen on Mamaragan here and I love his progression. Not many horses run third in a Golden Slipper at their second start and I see no reason why he won’t get the extra trip. It is his first racing prep but I’m happy to be with him here

Hardest to beat on day

Race 10 no.2 Rubisaki $2*** at right price though

Hard to go past Rubisaki and she is a beauty. She has had eight starts for six wins and two seconds and she gets in very well under the conditions of this race. She also loves wet tracks.

Best value

Race 5 no.3 Gallic Chieftain $10 and $3.20*** locked in Thursday

Best roughie of the day here for mine in Gallic Chieftain. I love the set up and he just has this knack of peaking third up at this track when the blinkers go on. He won this race last year third up when the blinkers went on and he ran a close second in the Metropolitan in the spring third up when the blinkers went on. He warmed up nicely at Caulfield last start and looks ready to peak. I’m keen on him each-way

Other value play

Race 9 no.9 Yulong Prince $17 and $5

I thought Yulong Prince was over the odds at $21. I know the Ajax hasn’t been the best form reference for the Doncaster but I like the way he has been building this prep and the rain will help him.

Randwick history rail true

6/04/2019         Rwick    True      s7          Pretty fair although I don't think hard fence was great. Could make ground

25/05/2019       Rwick    True      g4/3      Rail was off for most of the day, lanes 3 and out best

3/08/2019         Rwick    True      H8         Very fair track

21/09/2019       Rwick    True      S7-6      Pretty fair, fence in run help r1-3 then fair, touch off rails real late but rail ok still

19/10/2019       Rwick    TRUE     G4         Fair track- perfect

14/12/2019       Rand     TRUE     G4         Pretty fair track although didn't want to be much worse than midfield

Assessment: Fair track expected although maybe playing a few off fence.

Normal strategy

Race 3 no.2 Two Big Fari 10 unit wi at $7

Race 5 no.3 Gallic Chieftain 15 unit win at $10 and 10 unit place at $3.20**Locked in earlier in week

Race 6 no.1 Mamaragan 45 unit win at $3.70**Locked in earlier in week

Race 6 no.13 Cultural Amnesia 10 unit win at $15 and and 10 unit place at $3.80

Race 7 no.3 Warning 20 unit win at $4.20

Race 9 no.19 Brandenburg 10 unit win at  $7

Race 9 no.9 Yulong Prince 10 unit win at $21 and 15 unit place at $6

10 unit Randwick Quaddie (16.66%, Starts r7): 1st leg: 3,1,5,2,6. 2nd leg: 1,7,2. 3rd leg: 19,9,17,1. 4th leg: 2.

10 unit early quaddie (starts r3, 18.5%): 1st leg: 1,2,6. 2nd leg: 1,2,3. 3rd leg: 3,5. 4th leg:1,8,13.

Results: To be updated

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy

Race 3 no.2 Two Big Fari 0.3 unit wi at $7

Race 5 no.3 Gallic Chieftain 0.6 unit win at $10 and 0.4 unit place at $3.20**Locked in earlier in week

Race 6 no.1 Mamaragan 1.5 unit win at $3.70**Locked in earlier in week

Race 6 no.13 Cultural Amnesia 0.3 unit win at $15 and and 0.25 unit place at $3.80

Race 7 no.3 Warning 0.5 unit win at $4.20

Race 9 no.19 Brandenburg 0.25 unit win at  $7

Race 9 no.9 Yulong Prince 0.3 unit win at $17 and 0.5 uint place at $5

Results: To be updated

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Race 1: Kindergarten Stakes (1100m)

Overview: Rulership has the runs on the board and he did almost beat Hanseatic in a Blue Diamond lead up in Melbourne. Damaged was impressive first-up and the only concern here is the awkward draw to contend with (there is speed inside him too). Other chances to Doubtland and the chances don’t end there.

Advice: Rulership to win.

Confidence: 4/10

Speed map: Speed looks OK with Harmonium and Damaged coming across.

Selections: 1-4-5-11

1. Rulership ($2.60): Has the form on the board but I wasn’t rapt in his recent trial- He overraced there and that concerns me. Horse to beat on form naturally.

4. Damaged ($3)- Good win fresh and has the upside. Just a tricky draw to overcome the knock?

5. Doubtland ($5.60)- Good win last start where showd a nice dash on debut. Draws well and win was on soft 7.

11. Harmonium ($22.90):- Speed filly- doubt she wins but next best.

Others:

2. Not An Option ($28.6), 3. Jerle ($57.2), 6. Never Never River ($114.4).

Race 2 Carbine Club Stakes (1600m)

Overview: Hard to go past Reloaded and he has really come of age this autumn. He was beaten a length in the Randwick Guineas and then was third in the Rosehill Guineas. He is a deserved favourite. I don’t think there is much between Grand Piano and Promotions. I’ll lean the way of Grand Piano for second. Kubrick can improve but doesn’t want rain and that’s been his main issue this prep.

Advice: Reloaded to win.

Confidence: 6/10

Speed map: Entente and Promotions the two most likely to roll forward. Speed looks even.

Selections: 3-5-2-4

3. Reloaded ($2)- Late gear change of synthetic hoof filler first time not ideal? Hard to go past though on form. He was beaten a length in the Randwick Guineas and then was third in the Rosehill Guineas. He is a deserved favourite.

5.Grand Piano ($5.30):- Strong win last start but it was set up for him all the same so a touch better to the eye than on the clock. Progressive.

2. Promotions ($7.10)- Going about it the right way. Reckon he will be better in six months bit a win wouldn’t shock.

4. Kubrick ($14.40)- Has been a bit disappointing this prep but has had a few excuses. Doesn’t want it too wet?

Others:

1. Power Scheme ($38.8), ($5.3), 6. Bottega ($19.1), 7. Entente ($232.9).

Race 3: Country Championships Final (1400m)

Overview: I think a few of these have a class edge on the rest and in particular Bobbing. He is a Provincial Championships winner already and he should be ready to explode second up here. He draws wide but he will be hard to hold out. Two Big Fari should get across and either lead or get a good run on speed and he just might take some running down here. He has really come of age this prep. Ligulate won his heat well but I think he is short enough at $5 all the same. Julian Rock is the other main hope and he is flying. A wet track would enhance his prospects.

Advice: Two Big Fari to win with Bobbing firming too much.

Confidence: 6/10

Speed map: Magnalane, Two Big Fari and Hit The Target roll across with Plonka not far away. Speed looks average but they could overdo it with the big money on offer.

Selections: 2-1-6-7

2. Two Big Fari ($6.60) Should get across and either lead or get a good run on speed and he just might take some running down here. He has really come of age this prep and his run in the Wildcard was a beauty when they went hard but he still held them at bay. 1400m looks OK.

1. Bobbing ($3.90)- The weighted horse- Has won a Prov Qualifier at 1400m here. Just where he gets too? May be spotting them a big start.

6. Julian Rock ($7.20): Jean Dubois has got him going great guns. Won his heat well and form prior was good in benchmark grade. Doesn’t mind it wet if rain has arrived.

7. Ligulate ($7.20): Won his heat but it was set up for him and I think he is a touch short in market personally. Can run well all the same.

Others:

3. Healing Hands ($22.4), 4. Casino Mondial ($132.8), 5. Sneak Preview ($39.9), 8. Al Mah Haha ($22.4), 9. Plonka ($39.9), 10. Hit The Target ($53.1), 11. Fast Talking ($35.4), 12. Magnalane ($53.1), 13. Electrified ($159.3), 14. Gracie Belle ($31.9), 15. Sky Call ($53.1), 16. Bennelong Dancer ($26.2).

 

Race 4: Adrian Knox Stakes (2000m)

Overview: I’ve always had a big rap on Colette and I’ve been in her corner as a great Oaks roughie for a couple of months. She has done nothing to change my mind and I think she will lap up 2000m here and put herself right in the Oaks picture. The bookies are taking no risks though putting her up at $2.30?. Paradee and Fascino look the dangers.

Advice: Colette on top but she is short enough at $2.25.

Confidence: 7/10

Speed map: Dorothy Of Oz and Satin Rain look most prominent but speed looks only fair.

Selections: 3-2-1-13

3.Colette ($2.50)- The X factor horse for mine- I know she is coming out of benchmark races but the form has stacked up. Smashed Into The Oblivion two back and it’s been flying since and then beat a nice horse in Gemmahra (failed since but he isn’t a wet tracker) when back in trip last start. Looks like she will stay all day, 2000m big tick and big track. Rain should help too.

2.Paradee ($4.10)- Brings group form from Vic- Out to 2000m for first time and query on the depth of that form to some degree but has to be respected considering the Group form alone.

1.Fascino ($12.70)= Run was better than it looked in Vinery and this is much easier. Form prior was solid too. The improver.

13.Miai Nebula ($19.20)- OK behind Colette last start when back in trip. 2000m suits and will love it if rain arrives.

Others:

4. Ready's Girl ($52.1), 5. Dorothy Of Oz ($78.1), 6. Cosmic Haze ($156.1), 7. Elisa Carolina ($78.1), 8. Donnachiara ($156.1), 9. Nimalee ($#DIV/0!), 10. #REF! ($25.7), 11. Betcha Flying ($#DIV/0!), 12. Amitto ($31.2), 13. Satin Rain ($19.2), 15. Quintessa ($52.1), 16. Stickemup ($52.1).

 

Race 5: Chairman’s Quality (2600m)

Overview: Best roughie of the day here for mine in Gallic Chieftain. I love the set up and he just has this knack of peaking third up at this track when the blinkers go on. He won this race last year third up when the blinkers went on and he ran a close second in the Metropolitan in the spring third up when the blinkers went on. He warmed up nicely at Caulfield last start and looks ready to peak. I’m keen on him each-way. Carif is a progressive young stayer and he comes through the strongest form line. The wet track is of some concern though. The Chosen One and Mirage Dancer next best.

Advice: Gallic Chieftain each-way

Confidence: 7/10- bullish about Gallic Chieftain running well at odds.

Speed map: Think It Over and Angel Of Truth the most prominent. Speed looks average to below average.

Selections: 3-5-12-1

3. Gallic Chieftain ($7.70): Best roughie of the day here for mine in Gallic Chieftain. I love the set up and he just has this knack of peaking third up at this track when the blinkers go on. He won this race last year third up when the blinkers went on and he ran a close second in the Metropolitan in the spring third up when the blinkers went on. He warmed up nicely at Caulfield last start and looks ready to peak. I’m keen on him each-way

5.Carif ($4.90): is a progressive young stayer and he comes through the strongest form line through the Tancred where his run was good. Doesn’t want it too wet but saving on hm.

12.Gayatri ($7.70)- Found the line well LS and should be doing the same. 4th behind Shared Ambition at 2800m last spring says she will get the trip.

1.Mirage Dancer ($6.60)- 3rd in a Caul Cup and comes through the Tancred where he was solid. Just has the big weight.

Others:

12. The Chosen One ($7.1), 4. Raheen House ($47.3), 6. Yogi ($47.3), 7. Angel Of Truth ($47.3), 8. All Too Soon ($47.3), 10. Fairlight ($472.4), 11. Youngstar ($15.5), 13. House Of Cartier ($47.3), 14. Think It Over ($15.5).

 

Race 6: Sires (1400m)

Overview: Pretty keen on Mamaragan here and I love his progression. Not many horses run third in a Golden Slipper at their second start and I see no reason why he won’t get the extra trip. It is his first racing prep but I’m happy to be with him here. I think the roughie here is Cultural Amnesia. He won his maiden in good figures last start and I can see him running a race. The horse he beat comfortably last start, Rock My Wand bolted in at Rosehill on Wednesday. Ole Kirk has struck trouble in both runs to date and looks the other main hope.

Advice: Mamaragan hard to beat and something on Cultural Amnesia at the big odds. He will run well.

Confidence: 7/10

Speed map: Mamaragan will be handy but expecting Cultural Amnesia to lead with Clark on.

Selections: 1-13-8-7

1.Mamaraan ($3): I love his progression. Not many horses run third in a Golden Slipper at their second start and I see no reason why he won’t get the extra trip. It is his first racing prep but I’m happy to be with him here.

13. Cultural Amnesia ($11)- I think the roughie here is Cultural Amnesia. He won his maiden in good figures last start and I can see him running a race. The horse he beat comfortably last start, Rock My Wand bolted in at Rosehill on Wednesday.

8. Ole Kirk ($7)- struck trouble in both runs to date but has been strong to the line and recent trial was pleasing.

7. Aim ($10.80):  Should relish 1400m just query whether he has the right form lines.

Others:

2. Larimer Street ($12), 3. Prague ($8.5), 4. King's Legacy ($20), 5. Glenfiddich ($40.5), 9. Bartley ($30.4), 11. Mission River ($60.8), 12. Pioneer River ($121.6).

 

Race 7: Australia Derby (2400m)

Overview: Great edition of the Australian Derby but it’s hard to get away from the market. The rain has bought me back to Warning. He looks the real stayer having won the Victorian Derby in the spring. He just might outstay them here on the wet ground. Castelvecchio won the Rosehill Guineas courtesy of a cracking ride from Craig Williams. He is on trial at the trip but should run the distance. Shadow Hero just got too far back last start but he is flying. Eric The Eel is the roughie. He beat the older horses in Queensland last start and the trip will be no issue.

Advice: Not much between Castelvecchio and Shadow Hero and Warning. Eric The Eel is a decent place chance at odds.

Confidence: 6/10

Speed map: Expect Sacramento and Sherwood Forest to be up on speed. Sacramento should go at evens.

Selections: 3-1-5-2

3.Warning ($3.80): Had Derby/Sydney Cup written all over him for months- Won the Vic Derby in the spring and should be closing strongly. Just would have liked to have seen more in Rosehill Guineas?

1.Castelvecchio ($3.80): Castelvecchio won the Rosehill Guineas courtesy of a cracking ride from Craig Williams. He is on trial at the trip but should run the distance. Doubt he gets the sweet run this time though.

5.Eric The Eel ($19.50): Best roughie at odds. Beat the older horses at Doomben last start and I don’t see 2400m being an issue. Runs on.

2.Shadow Hero ($4): Shadow Hero just got too far back last start but he is flying. He clocked the best late splits of the race and I reckon he will stay- Forgiving the Vic Derby run. **Worried now on heavy track.

Others chances:

6. Quick Thinker ($20): Very good wet tracker.

Oher runners:

4. Sherwood Forest ($26), 7. Zebrowski ($31.7), 8. Chains Of Honour ($39.6), 9. Skiddaw ($79.2), 10. Diasonic ($158.4), 12. Sacramento ($39.6).

 

Race 8 TAB TJ Smith Stakes (1200m)

Overview: Great edition of the TJ Smith Stakes. Nature Strip has been well backed since drawing gate one and he should lead and be hard to run down. He ticked that 1200m box at Flemington last spring but there are two of him and he can put in a shocker. Bivouac was disappointing in the William Reid but he was dominant in the Newmarket prior and he can bounce back. Santa Ana Lane won this race easily last year and has a great second up record, while Loving Gaby has claims as well off the dominant William Reid victory.

Advice: Leaning to Nature Strip but he is too short all the same for mine.

Confidence: 6/10

Speed map: Nature Strip kicks up to lead with Vegadaze and Redzel right there. Speed should be genuine as Nature Strip always rolls at a decent tempo.

Selections: 1-7-2-13

1.Nature Strip ($4): Nature Strip has been well backed since drawing gate one and he should lead and be hard to run down. He ticked that 1200m box at Flemington last spring but there are two of him and he can put in a shocker.

7. Bivouac ($5.90): Bivouac was disappointing in the William Reid but he was dominant in the Newmarket prior and he can bounce back. He is a ripper.

2. Pierata ($7.60)- Brave first up with the big weght and substantial rain brings him right into play now.

13. Loving Gaby ($7.60): Dominant in the William Reid where the beaten brigade included Bivouac. Can she reproduce?

Other chances:

3. Santa Ana Lane ($8.50): ***Demoted due to consistent rain and heavy track now. Won this race easily last year and has a great second up record. Could easily win.

Other runners:

4. Redzel ($44.8), 5. Trekking ($24.5), 6. Vegadaze ($111.9), 8. In Her Time ($44.8), 9. Exceedance ($12.8), 10. Tofane ($55.9), 11. White Moss ($223.7).

 

Race 9: Doncaster Handicap (1600m)

Overview: Brandenburg has been the one punters have circled in early betting and he is the weighted horse this year. He was brave when fourth in the George Ryder at weight for age and drops to just 50.5kg here. The George Ryder has been a great form reference for the Doncaster in recent years. I thought Yulong Prince was over the odds at $21. I know the Ajax hasn’t been the best form reference for the Doncaster but I like the way he has been building this prep and any rain will help him. Melody Belle, Shared Ambition and Prince Fawaz on the next line.

Advice: Brandenburg the horse to beat but Yulong Prince the value.

Confidence: 6/10

Speed map: Expect Quackerjack to lead with Con Te Partiro and Imaging rolling across. Speed should be even.

Selections: 19-9-17-1

19.Brandenburg ($7): He was brave when fourth in the George Ryder at weight for age and drops to just 50.5kg here. The George Ryder has been a great form reference for the Doncaster in recent years with five of the past 6 Doncaster winners coming through the George Ryder. Meets Super Seth 4.5kg better off for beating him home LS.

9.Yulong Prince ($12)- The best roughie- Brave second behind Imaing second up and looks ready now third up. Just wants rain.

17.Shared Ambition ($8.90)- Waller has a good record with horses 2000m back to 1600m and he does that here. 52.5kg and untapped horse.

1.Melody Belle ($8.90)- Genuine give in track will help- Has been going OK on top of ground but better with sting out. 57kg the leveller!

Other runners:

2. Kolding ($16.8), 3. Homesman ($69.1), 4. Kings Will Dream ($46.1), 5. Mister Sea Wolf ($41.5), 6. Best Of Days ($103.6), 7. Mr Quickie ($103.6), 8. Super Seth ($10.6), 10. Cascadian ($14.4), 11. Con Te Partiro ($103.6), 12. Imaging ($14.4), 13. Quackerjack ($34), 14. Star Of The Seas ($34), 15. Tally ($414.4), 16. Night's Watch ($103.6), 18. Nettoyer ($41.5), 20. Prince Fawaz ($11.2).

 

Race 10: PJ Bell Stakes (1200m)

Overview: Hard to go past Rubisaki and she is a beauty. She has had eight starts for six wins and two seconds and she gets in very well under the conditions of this race. She also loves wet tracks. Heart Of The Oak gets the blinkers of for the first time and while she was disappointing in the Surround, she beat subsequent Group winner Positive Peace prior to that. Kiamichi is capable if the heavens open and the wetter the better for her. Wayupinthesky comes through a very good rating race fresh and just has to run out 1200m.

Advice: Rubisaki to win.

Confidence: 8/10

Speed map: Kiamichi should lead with Sangria, Juan Diva and Wayupinthesky behind those. Speed looks even.

Selections: 2-7-6-1

2. Rubisaki ($2)- she is a beauty. She has had eight starts for six wins and two seconds and she gets in very well under the conditions of this race. She also loves wet tracks.

7. Heart Of The Oak ($12.50)- A shade disappointing in the Surround but she beat subs G2 winner Positive Peace prior. Blinkers on. Improver.

6.Wayupinthesky ($15.30) comes through a very good rating race fresh and just has to run out 1200m.

1.Kiamichi ($12.50)- Needs it wet but if she gets that and gets an easy lead, she can be hard to run down.

Other runners:

3. Pin Sec ($77.4), 4. Akari ($77.4), 5. Sangria ($15.3), 8. Juan Diva ($19.1), 10. Regimental Band ($25.4), 11. Saas Fee ($309.6), 12. Placquette ($25.4), 13. St Covet's Spirit ($309.6), 15. Dazzling Damsel ($25.4).



Brad Davidson preview Randwick Apr 4 - Brad Davidson preview Randwick Apr 4


LISTEN

TIPS

TWITTER

FACEBOOK

FEEDBACK

BSB Supporters